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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Coldest air relative to normals will be over Eurasia the next few weeks we will just have to work with arctic air in our own backyard per say (of North-Central Canada, Alaska, & Greenland origin). Definitely sufficient to get wintry weather here but not quite as good if the air mass was actually of Siberian origin instead, like it was in 2013-14 & 2014-15
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Webberweather53 said:
Coldest air relative to normals will be over Eurasia the next few weeks we will just have to work with arctic air in our own backyard per say (of North-Central Canada, Alaska, & Greenland origin). Definitely sufficient to get wintry weather here but not quite as good if the air mass was actually of Siberian origin instead, like it was in 2013-14 & 2014-15
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Always something to screw up a pants busting pattern! Now the cold that's available, isn't the coldest possible!! I smell a nice couple of 33/34 Rain events coming ! :(
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
 
I'm waiting for the" super Arctic outbreak coming, but coming into the Rockies and Southern Plains first, then it'll slowly bleed east " :(
 
Mount Agung won't have an immediate affect, and will not affect this winter. When Mount Pinatubo (located in the Philippines) erupted in 1991 it actually decreased the mean world temps. by about 1°C over the subsequent two years.

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WeatherWatch said:
Mount Agung won't have an immediate affect, and will not affect this winter. When Mount Pinatubo (located in the Philippines) erupted in 1991 it actually decreased the mean world temps. by about 1°C over the subsequent two years.

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No, Mount Pinatubo's aerosols were distributed across the tropics in a matter of 2-3 weeks as noted by Aquila et al. Yes, we all know the volcanic eruption cooled global temperatures but it actually made the subsequent winters of the early-mid 90s that followed much warmer here in the SE US because the radiative imbalances caused by the aerosols in the stratosphere strengthened the mid-latitude westerly jet and polar vortex (+AO). Read my earlier posts for details...

"The sulfate cloud generated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo circled around the Earth within 3 weeks of the eruption [Guo et al., 2004; McCormick and Veiga, 1992], crossing the equator and diffusing to mid- and high latitudes in both the northern and the southern hemispheres."
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120002602.pdf
 
WeatherWatch said:
Mount Agung won't have an immediate affect, and will not affect this winter. When Mount Pinatubo (located in the Philippines) erupted in 1991 it actually decreased the mean world temps. by about 1°C over the subsequent two years.
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But, Don, you're talking globally and Webb has been talking more regionally (E US) due to the correlation of +AO with warmer winters, especially in the SE US.
 
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