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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
I'm close to going all in for the first time this winter !!!!!. Larry and Webber have me stacking my chips
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Both are doing a superb job. Both absolutely deserve board-wide kudos, and here's truly hoping they are correct, if not underestimating.
Yet, the lawyer in me keeps saying to wait until the last witness has testified and been cross examined (i.e, the last model before now-cast time), and then with closing arguments (analysis at that point) look at the jury and get a good read before talking outcomes.
Even then perhaps be surprised (possibly pleasantly) with the verdict.
But, that's just the occupational cynic in this old
Curmudgeon.
 
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GaWx said:
Don,
1. Tambora: I went here to check Charleston, SC, records:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/

Dec 1815: warmer than norm
July 1816: warmer than norm
Aug & Sep 1816: normal
Dec 1816: warmer than normal
Feb 1817: colder than norm
Mar & Apr 1817: warmer than normal
May & June 1817: normal

June of 1816 isn't available. Perhaps that was colder than normal but we don't know. But otherwise, the subsequent 3 months are either warmer than normal or normal. Of the 10 months listed, only one was colder than normal and that not til Feb of 1817 while 5 were warmer than normal. So, at least for Charleston and probably also the SE as a whole, there is no indication of an 1816 year without a summer nor a longer term cooldown.

2. Krakatau: The winter of 1883-4 was, indeed, rather mild as Webb implied. However, January was very cold and the coldest single month in KATL between 1879 and 1894. Also, there was a big sleet storm in Atlanta (4"), Athens (3-5"), and Augusta (3") in early January
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Some time ago, the librarian at the Union County Public Library in Monroe, NC sent me photocopies of pages from a book on Union County history. As shown on the first page, it describes the cold summer of 1816 and the effect it had on the crops. A Fayetteville, NC newspaper also notes the summer of 1816 as being cold.
Pages_62-63.jpg
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SD said:
Evening thoughts
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Remember that part in Dumb and Dumber where they get robbed by the old lady in the motorized scooter and they didn't even see it coming!! I'm waiting for that between now and go time! :(
Hope I'm wrong, just everything seems too perfect.
 
Eric said:
Some time ago, the librarian at the Union County Public Library in Monroe, NC sent me photocopies of pages from a book on Union County history. As shown on the first page, it describes the cold summer of 1816 and the effect it had on the crops. A Fayetteville, NC newspaper also notes the summer of 1816 as being cold.
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Nice find Eric! To go along with that, I came across an article that talked about the winters of 1883-1885 here: http://bogushistory.blogspot.com/2009/06/long-winter-of-1883-1885.html
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Remember that part in Dumb and Dumber where they get robbed by the old lady in the motorized scooter and they didn't even see it coming!! I'm waiting for that between now and go time! :(
Hope I'm wrong, just everything seems too perfect.
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HAHA! Nice post!


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pcbjr said:
Allan hits this nail squarely on the head ...

Screen_Shot_2017-11-27_at_7.09.11_PM.png
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I'm seeing similar evolution in this 100-day lowpass filtered constructed analog based on Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) (overlaid w/ 300 hPa height anomalies) thru mid January, thereafter (as one would expect from stereotypical NINA evolution) the SE US ridge begins to flex its muscles by late January and especially in February...
By utilizing a 100-day filter (which is near ENSO's spectral peak), this product from Paul Roundy is likely adequately capturing ENSO-related variability in OLR and by using analogs w/ similar 100-day OLR lowpass filtered anomalies, thus it's probably also catching a lot of NINA years...

Screen Shot 2017-11-27 at 10.27.16 PM.png

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html
 
WeatherWatch said:
Nice find Eric! To go along with that, I came across an article that talked about the winters of 1883-1885 here: http://bogushistory.blogspot.com/2009/06/long-winter-of-1883-1885.html
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Don,
Thanks for posting this. Snow fell on New Orleans on 6/5/1883?? What?? How could that even be possible? I'm going to check that out. Maybe it was hail?
But I already said Jan of 1884 was a very cold SE month and coldest at ATL of any month 1879-1894 with a big SE storm (major sleet N half of GA). However, Dec, Feb, and March were all warmer than normal at KATL.
 
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Eric said:
Some time ago, the librarian at the Union County Public Library in Monroe, NC sent me photocopies of pages from a book on Union County history. As shown on the first page, it describes the cold summer of 1816 and the effect it had on the crops. A Fayetteville, NC newspaper also notes the summer of 1816 as being cold.
Pages_62-63.jpg
Pages_64-65.jpg
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Eric,
Thanks for posting this. Mar-June 1816 aren't available for CHS. So, they may very well have been cold at CHS. I have no way to tell. However, I do have Jul and Aug and the cold mentioned in your article did not show up as far south as CHS. Sep and Dec seem to jibe, however, since they were pleasant per your article.
I also noted the bullet addressing the extreme SE cold of Jan 8-14, 1884. My data agrees 100%.
 
GaWx said:
Don,
Thanks for posting this. Snow fell on New Orleans on 6/5/1883?? What?? How could that even be possible? I'm going to check that out. Maybe it was hail?
But I already said Jan of 1884 was a very cold SE month and coldest at ATL of any month 1879-1894 with a big SE storm (major sleet N half of GA). However, Dec, Feb, and March were all warmer than normal at KATL.
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6/51883 in CHA it was 82 for a high, 66 for low... very dubious for snow in New Orleans then.
 
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GaWx said:
Don,
Thanks for posting this. Snow fell on New Orleans on 6/5/1883?? What?? How could that even be possible? I'm going to check that out. Maybe it was hail?
But I already said Jan of 1884 was a very cold SE month and coldest at ATL of any month 1879-1894 with a big SE storm (major sleet N half of GA). However, Dec, Feb, and March were all warmer than normal at KATL.
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Yes, according to that article, snow fell on New Orleans in 1883. Did snow really fall on New Orleans on that date? It's hard to say since it's dated way back. Records are scarce on somethings. However, it did officially snow in New Orleans on Feb. 4th, 1899 with 3" of snow and ice. Going back to Krakatoa, the four years after eruption were unusually cold, and the winter of 1887-1888 included powerful blizzards and record snowfalls were recorded worldwide. It's interesting that New Orleans received snow and ice in 1899.
 
IF it snows big in Texas, that where it usually happens.. Think Dalhart Tx in the Panhandle averages close to 20 inches of snow annually.
 
different world up there.. climate is closer to Denver's than it is to Dallas...
 
The avatar has changed and the time has come.

If you're needing a reason to pick up some canned goods, butane, chainsaw supplies, along with a few kerosene heating supplies, check out the discussions above. Now would be better than later to start getting some things ready. What's the worst that can happen? Better to have and not need, than to need and not have.

Oh yeah, I am all in for Dazzling December.
 
whamby said:
00z Euro sez, what Texas Panhandle snowstorm? I'm dropping the arctic hammer on the Eastern US, bud:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
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Dang thats cold. One thing for sure, we will get cold. Something has to give to get a Storm, with all that cold air available, we should see something oit of it
 
God thing for ensembles, I guess!? 6z GFS says, everybody put your pants back on, pants party is cancelled! :(
 
Storm5 said:
Not sure what gfs your looking at but I woke up , saw the blocking on the 06z gfs and instantly took my pants off
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Guess I was just looking at temps. They were hardly ever below normal the entire run. Don't want another " block of the century" like we just had and temps not respond accordingly.
 
EPS and GEFS in amazing agreement for Day 10. Trough could correct east instead of undercutting the ridge out west, would mean colder for SE.

I see this pattern as about a week long event but if can definitely last longer. This doesn’t really scream wintry action for the SE outside of the mountains but it will be a very noticeable change from the first week of December. It’s great to see patterns like these showing up early.

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Northern TX may surely see some snow like the GFS is projecting. One thing for sure, is that TX is far enough west that TX don't get the affects from SERs. Plus they get cold air coming down from the Rockies.
The crazy thing, I'm on about the same latitude as Amarillo TX. If there wasn't such a thing as the SER, I bet I would get as much snow as Amarillo TX averages, and if storm system's didn't cut. (That SER )

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