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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Lets hope it works out

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Here we go !! View attachment 105837View attachment 105838View attachment 105839View attachment 105840View attachment 105841
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It’s odd waking up and seeing these looks on the models after reading GSP’s discussion this morning. They’re saying that a blend of globals indicates rain outside of the mountains, but that’s not what these are showing. Maybe they’re trying to get through what will be a high impact storm for their area over the next couple days before spending too much time on this. Looking at it though, this certainly has the makings of a widespread snow event for much of the Carolinas… excellent cold press from the north and northwest, a weak southern stream system moving along the Gulf Coast and decent blocking over the top… not too strong to crush it too far south, but enough to move ENE along the coast stay off shore and not turning up the coast… fairly textbook
 
Chazwin said:
It’s odd waking up and seeing these looks on the models after reading GSP’s discussion this morning. They’re saying that a blend of globals indicates rain outside of the mountains, but that’s not what these are showing. Maybe they’re trying to get through what will be a high impact storm for their area over the next couple days before spending too much time on this. Looking at it though, this certainly has the makings of a widespread snow event for much of the Carolinas… excellent cold press from the north and northwest, a weak southern stream system moving along the Gulf Coast and decent blocking over the top… not too strong to crush it too far south, but enough to move ENE along the coast stay off shore and not turning up the coast… fairly textbook
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NWS RAH also didn’t indicate that. I looked at the individual EPS members and they basically all show the same solution - low pressure develops along the Arctic front (some of them near/in the Gulf) and throws moisture into the Arctic air mass.
 
Hypsometric said:
NWS RAH also didn’t indicate that. I looked at the individual EPS members and they basically all show the same solution - low pressure develops along the Arctic front (some of them near/in the Gulf) and throws moisture into the Arctic air mass.
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Yeah, there really is strong ensemble support with both the GEFS and EPS, and a lot of consistency within the individual members… pretty classic looks really for a solid overrunning event. Like I said, I think they probably have their attention focused on the next 36 hours.
 
Hypsometric said:
NWS RAH also didn’t indicate that. I looked at the individual EPS members and they basically all show the same solution - low pressure develops along the Arctic front (some of them near/in the Gulf) and throws moisture into the Arctic air mass.
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RAH most recent discussion certainly calls it out..

There continues to remain a chance
of snow toward the end of the period Friday. The surface arctic
front continues to move south Thursday through Friday, with high
pressure settling over the Ohio Valley during this time, along with
1250m low-level thicknesses, over 50 m below normal for late
January. At the same time, the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian all show a
secondary shortwave trough digging into the eastern US during this
period, with height falls over central and eastern NC Friday and
Friday night. Although the ECMWF/Canadian are dry and keeping the
moisture offshore and to our south, the GFS is wetter, consistent
with several members of the GEFS/Euro ensembles indicating chances
for snow. For the time being, have slight chances of snow with
uncertainty still present. Temperatures will trend colder and well
below average toward the end of the period with highs likely only in
the 30s.
 
Stormdoc said:
That’s a good look and I agree we need to keep it that way a couple more days at least. We need to watch that kicker in upper Midwest, a little more separation and our storm goes boom
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I just hope it doesn't amp up too early. Otherwise we could be looking at another Mid Atlantic/NE or Midsouth snowstorm, instead of a Central/Eastern Carolinas snowstorm. We need to keep it suppressed until about 48 hours out. As long as the storm singal is there, that's all I care about. Based on how this weekend storm has went, the next week storm will almost certain trend west and will be more amped as we get closer.
 
Last run, KFLO had .45 QPF. This run, they don’t even have 0.15 as a 24 hour total.

Until I see evidence that this thing can slow down and gather moisture, I’m not expecting more than an inch next weekend and that’s being generous.
 
There's the possibility of a secondary system late Friday/Saturday, and temps will be plenty cold for snow.
 
The GEFS seems mostly suppressed to me which is fine considering the way things have gone.

Not gonna mention the idea of it staying suppressed, but I will say that it seems like we might get the coldest weather we've seen in a few years late next week.
 
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