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Pattern Januworry

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Chance for some strong/severe weather tomorrow before the front?
 
accu35 said:
There’s not really a cold chasing moisture Situation to me. Cold is there and energy is all around. I can see if a front was coming through for cold chasing moisture but this is a different look to me.
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Maybe I was thinking about this but marginally cold at best.

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griteater said:
Just watching these model runs going back to Christmas Day in terms of pattern progression, they waffle around, as expected.....some ok, some good, some excellent. The overnight runs were in the excellent camp (00z EPS, 06z GFS, 06z GEFS). EPS finally showed some good western ridging and was colder. Pac Jet progression and Aleutian Low maintenance - all very good. The models have remained consistent over the past 4-5 days in showing the best pattern beginning to setup in the Jan 17-18 timeframe. Hopefully we see more model runs in the excellent camp instead of the ok camp going forward.

Saw someone post this photo on Twitter this morning. #9 at Augusta National (maybe from late Jan 2014?)

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Tough finding an analog for this. 2009 maybe?

Seems like we are seeing models with a ph7 pattern and hopefully ph 8.

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Downeastnc said:
This will happen I get rain every one else west of me gets hammered, that low location is usually jackpot for me though....

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Yeah that's money. More snow east. Low gets cranking and the column crashes. Love the big high dropping in. A smidge sooner and it's a snow party for everybody. Classic, classic setup.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Weatherbell map. Second best run all season!
View attachment 102720
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Cold Rain alluded to this but this map indicates a late bloomer with such heavy totals like that in those locations. I am guessing much of this in NEGA/SC would be mixed with sleet in a Miller B scenario. The big dog from the other day showed something similar but not as late so the biggest snow totals were further SW. If this bloomed a bit sooner it would get more peeps in the game for big snow, but it might also run the risk of over amping and cutting. Always such a tap dance around here to get one just right. Obviously this is a fantasy map but it is great to see the models continuing to show potential after the 13th, and especially after the 16th. Everybody stay tuned and keep those fingers and toes crossed!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Cold Rain alluded to this but this map indicates a late bloomer with such heavy totals like that in those locations. I am guessing much of this in NEGA/SC would be mixed with sleet in a Miller B scenario. The big dog from the other day showed something similar but not as late so the biggest snow totals were further SW. If this bloomed a bit sooner it would get more peeps in the game for big snow, but it might also run the risk of over amping and cutting. Always such a tap dance around here to get one just right. Obviously this is a fantasy map but it is great to see the models continuing to show potential after the 13th, and especially after the 16th. Everybody stay tuned and keep those fingers and toes crossed!
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Looked at thermals. It’s more than supportive of snow in the upstate. In fact it’s very cold through the column and would support ratios probably closer to 15:1
 
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