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Pattern December to Remember

Loganelliott99 said:
This is the most realistic IMO. This kind of pattern is EXTREMELY difficult to break View attachment 97304
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Here are the individual members 24 hours later. I'm not advocating for a full scale early pattern change but it's easy to get fooled by s smoothed mean that's going to be tilted warm given the extreme anomalies we will see ahead of fronts in the absence of extreme cold. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel-0217600 (1).png

I think there's some potential for the pattern to get a little more variable and chunky headed into Christmas.
 
iGRXY said:
Players are on the field to at least get a -EPO/-NAO combo. Can see the heights trying to build over Alaska and potentially Greenland.
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Yeah, but it’s the Panthers ?
 
Looks like the EURO was trying to push in some cold air at the end of run
 
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I know tarheels gotta be pissed, with a foot of snow possible just to his north while he will be lucky to get a slushy inch.
 
Whomever "Vaughn" is, makes me sick....From KATL/KFFC

After the front moves through, Sunday's highs and lows will return
to a more seasonal state with daytime temps in the mid 50s to low
60s, and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Stubborn high pressure
in the gulf will turn that flow more WSW, and temperatures will
gradually begin to climb again next week toward the upper 60s and
70s by midweek. With any luck, winter will remain well north of our
area for the foreseeable future.

Vaughn
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I know tarheels gotta be pissed, with a foot of snow possible just to his north while he will be lucky to get a slushy inch.
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I’m good! I watched snow fall for 2 hours today, no travel issues, will watchi it snow a wind driven blizzard-like snow most of late Friday night and Saturday morning, and have 2 days in the 60s next week! I’m living my best life! Haters gonna hate! ??
 
Signs of real change hinted at in subseasonal guidance for a few weeks, and now showing up on operational NWP models in time for the Holidays. Once the -NAO retrogrades over and west of Greenland, the beat down of the SE US ridge will begin. Willing to bet this ridge over Alaska is more amped/poleward (Alaska + Beaufort Sea) than the EPS suggests, translating to weaker SE US ridge in the long-run.

-PNA/-NAOs are often really stormy, w/ occasional ice storms and/or severe weather in the southeastern US and TN Valley. Also, you want some rain (as many sure need it), the -NAO should direct the storm track more SEward of NINA climo w/ time.

1640325600-TrUkpknJWhE.png

1640347200-zTaKrGmFo6w.png
 
bigstick10 said:
Whomever "Vaughn" is, makes me sick....From KATL/KFFC

After the front moves through, Sunday's highs and lows will return
to a more seasonal state with daytime temps in the mid 50s to low
60s, and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Stubborn high pressure
in the gulf will turn that flow more WSW, and temperatures will
gradually begin to climb again next week toward the upper 60s and
70s by midweek. With any luck, winter will remain well north of our
area for the foreseeable future.

Vaughn
Click to expand...
This is whamby I know, but it never ceases to amaze me when we have one day of winter weather and the mets say "give it just two days and we will have this mess out of here" as if they've been dealing with it for the entire winter. All we get is one day annually, damn deal with it.
 
Avalanche said:
This is whamby I know, but it never ceases to amaze me when we have one day of winter weather and the mets say "give it just two days and we will have this mess out of here" as if they've been dealing with it for the entire winter. All we get is one day annually, damn deal with it.
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Preach!!! They do it even up here! It could be gonna snow 18” tomorrow and all they’d focus on is two days from now it’s gonna hit 50!! Very good point and annoying AF! Thanks ?
 
Here's the link to the ACCESS-S2 Monthly MJO forecast from the Australian BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Tropics

In a La Nina winter w/ a slow-moving MJO wave like this, the NAO usually goes deeply negative when we reach phase 8. We should arrive there around or just before New Years, which is generally consistent w/ the circulation pattern on NWP models atm.
mjo_rmm.daily.20211207.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the link to the ACCESS-S2 Monthly MJO forecast from the Australian BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Tropics

In a La Nina winter w/ a slow-moving MJO wave like this, the NAO usually goes deeply negative when we reach phase 8. We should arrive there around or just before New Years, which is generally consistent w/ the circulation pattern on NWP models atm.
View attachment 97316
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8 in to the COD and Webb, we may have something to do on new Year's Eve and carry that hangover on for a few days afterwards ... maybe ...
 
bigstick10 said:
Whomever "Vaughn" is, makes me sick....From KATL/KFFC

After the front moves through, Sunday's highs and lows will return
to a more seasonal state with daytime temps in the mid 50s to low
60s, and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Stubborn high pressure
in the gulf will turn that flow more WSW, and temperatures will
gradually begin to climb again next week toward the upper 60s and
70s by midweek. With any luck, winter will remain well north of our
area for the foreseeable future.

Vaughn
Click to expand...
Must be PackBacker
 
pcbjr said:
8 in to the COD and Webb, we may have something to do on new Year's Eve and carry that hangover on for a few days afterwards ... maybe ...
Click to expand...

Based on an analysis I did of temperature anomalies in January in Atlanta covering a 40 or so year period, the coldest when averaged out (so doesn’t guarantee anything but it is what I prefer to see for the best chance for cold MJOwise) was when the MJO was either just outside or inside the circle in phase 8 covering amplitudes 0.5 to 1.5 (inside circle just means amplitude under 1.0). Actually, for each and every one of the 8 phases during that 40 January period, Atlanta (and the bulk of the SE US by extension) was colder when comparing low amp to high amp as this RMM diagram with my handwritten anomalies clearly shows (no, this wasn’t for 1978….I used that one because I wanted a blank one to write on and this period in 1978 was missing RMM data):

43C9DFC6-537E-4501-8508-3CA696D1A01F.png

What I most prefer to see, especially in January, is a slow moving counterclockwise rotation just outside or inside the circle from 6 to 7 to 8 to 1 to 2 to 3 because all of those when averaged out were colder than normal as the diagram shows.

Edit: Regardless, the MJO by itself doesn’t control everything. It usually needs help from other areas. However, the MJO is by itself a rather powerful indicator.
 
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