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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

Now I think I can say the rains from Irma are done. It was a very impressive windshow for most of today I thought.
 
Man we been gettging it rough here in upstate ever since bout 2pm. Trees down everywhere, lots of power outages, winds still around 40mph at times. Just now had a 38 gust. We've had 1.25" of rain
 
Talk about going against climo
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Kinda makes me sad to see her fall apart like she has. One of the most photogenic Atlantic hurricanes I had ever seen!
 
Is the weather really that bad in Atlana today that my company's office there needs to close today? I mean, they want us to come to work in Raleigh one day after a snow storm.
 
Storm5 said:
Talk about going against climo
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Seems to be happening more and more. I know in winter the past few years there have been times people say things should happen with winter storms based on climo, but they ended up not happening that way. Seems to be getting harder and harder to forecast what any type of storm will do around here based on what used to happen.
 
5" of rain from Irma here, so while it trended down a bit some of the higher totals predicted by the GFS weren't so crazy in at least my case.
 
Rosie said:
So sad for the victims, have many friends in S FL, so far all ok. Now I have a 3 cat lap
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Well, hopefully we get some 3 cat nights this winter. I used to wake up having trouble breathing, only to discover I had 30 lbs of cats on my chest, lol. Now nature got the big wind out of it's system, it's time for the big cad endless drizzle for Thanksgiving, then the big sleet come Jan and Feb. :) T
 
Now the more complicated part: Which model performed the best out of all of them? Here is the running list I had of all the models including a half time update. Anything I am missing? Sounds like the UKMET outperformed the Euro initially by taking it the furthest west, but fell short by keeping it at SC.
  • ECMWF - Powerful Category 3 to 5 just north of Greater Antilles, possibly into Florida. As of September 3, 2017: Modeled somewhere between OTS and NC, ensembles OTS to Gulf.
  • CMC - Strong cat 2 or 3 hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles. As of September 3, 2017: Into the Mid Atlantic or NC. Strong hurricane into Miami, then into NC up into the Mid Atlantic.
  • GFS - Strong hurricane, possibly cat 4 to 5 but out to sea or close or into the East Coast. As of September 3, 2017: Into NC or the Mid Atlantic, with ensembles into Florida to NE, strong cat 4 or 5. Strong Major hurricane, likely 3 to 5 into Savannah.
  • UKMET - Tropical storm to Strong 960mb hurricane over entire first run. As of September 3, 2017: South and right north of the Antilles, as a strong cat 4 or 5. Hits Hilton Head as cat 4 or 5.
  • HWRF - Developed the storm into a Cat 3 crossing the Atlantic. As of September 3, 2017: Just north of the Antilles as a cat 4. Sep 6: Went up offshore into South Carolina as a cat 2 to 4.
  • HMON - Developed the storm into a Cat 4 crossing the Atlantic. As of September 3, 2017: Further north than overall guidance, strong cat 4 or 5. Sep 6: Went into Miami, up spine of Florida as a 2 or 3 after a hit as a 5.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Is the weather really that bad in Atlana today that my company's office there needs to close today? I mean, they want us to come to work in Raleigh one day after a snow storm.
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Still a lot of power out, trees down, roads blocked so I would say depending on where they are at yes. I have a friend who's stuck in his neighborhood due to trees and power lines blocking them in. Seems to be a common theme for parts of the metro that got hit hardest.


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Back after a 30 hour long power and cable outage here. More importantly, though the yard is a bit of a mess with some limbs, I had no trees down or damage. But the SAV area (not me) had a storm surge that was in many cases even worse than Matthew! Many low lieing areas had water in homes. :( OTOH, there weren't nearly as many trees down as were taken by Matthew since the winds weren't as high.
There was even flooding of River St. from the adjacent SAV river! Tybee had plenty of flooding. Between the storm surge and heavy rains falling within a relatively short time, it was a mess in low areas of the area. I got about 6".
 
GaWx said:
Back after a 30 hour long power and cable outage here. More importantly, though the yard is a bit of a mess with some limbs, I had no trees down or damage. But the SAV area (not me) had a storm surge that was in many cases even worse than Matthew! Many low lieing areas had water in homes. :( OTOH, there weren't nearly as many trees down as were taken by Matthew since the winds weren't as high.
There was even flooding of River St. from the adjacent SAV river! Tybee had plenty of flooding. Between the storm surge and heavy rains falling within a relatively short time, it was a mess in low areas of the area. I got about 6".
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Glad to hear you were fine! Just crazy that there was a large area of impact and that the storm surge was higher than Matthew, which was a much closer hit and stronger hit than Irma. Goes to show it isn't always about strength, but rather size of the wind field.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems to be happening more and more. I know in winter the past few years there have been times people say things should happen with winter storms based on climo, but they ended up not happening that way. Seems to be getting harder and harder to forecast what any type of storm will do around here based on what used to happen.
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Most of the issues with closures of businesses is due to power outage and some access issues (Road blocked by trees/lines)
 
Is it just me or were the areas in GA that got the highest wind the areas that were further away from the center ? It's almost as if the center didn't matter and the closer you were to the center the lighter the winds were.
 
GaWx said:
Back after a 30 hour long power and cable outage here. More importantly, though the yard is a bit of a mess with some limbs, I had no trees down or damage. But the SAV area (not me) had a storm surge that was in many cases even worse than Matthew! Many low lieing areas had water in homes. :( OTOH, there weren't nearly as many trees down as were taken by Matthew since the winds weren't as high.
There was even flooding of River St. from the adjacent SAV river! Tybee had plenty of flooding. Between the storm surge and heavy rains falling within a relatively short time, it was a mess in low areas of the area. I got about 6".
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Glad you are ok, Larry. The Moles were fretting, lol. Goes to show what a major with a direct hit could do. I sure didn't like some of the model runs. I'm not sure the Sav area is ready for what that could have been. What do you think? So far they've been missing into Charleston. T
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is it just me or were the areas in GA that got the highest wind the areas that were further away from the center ? It's almost as if the center didn't matter and the closer you were to the center the lighter the winds were.
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I think that high that kept the spinners away set up a pressure gradient for some. I know this storm, weakened as it was, would have be terrifying without the cold air over us. I was dreading the spinners most. T
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is it just me or were the areas in GA that got the highest wind the areas that were further away from the center ? It's almost as if the center didn't matter and the closer you were to the center the lighter the winds were.
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No, it's not just you. Irma had a wide wind field and some of the winds up at 850 probably did mix down to the surface when the heavier rain moved in. There was TS force winds far as NE GA.

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WeatherWatch said:
No, it's not just you. Irma had a wide wind field and some of the winds up at 850 probably did mix down to the surface when the heavier rain moved in. There was TS force winds far as NE GA.

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Thanks for confirming what I thought. I know the center went through south and then west georgia, but it seems like areas from Atlanta eastward had stronger winds than areas southwest of the city closer to the center. Looking at the school closings it looks like most of them are for counties along and East of I-85 and East of I-75.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Glad to hear you were fine! Just crazy that there was a large area of impact and that the storm surge was higher than Matthew, which was a much closer hit and stronger hit than Irma. Goes to show it isn't always about strength, but rather size of the wind field.
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Indeed, this was one quite unique storm in that respect! At the closest approach of the center, which was on land, I think it was already down to strong TS strength. But it was the buildup of several days of swell coming in to this area on NE winds combined with southeasterly TS force winds that did it. I honestly didn't expect the surge to exceed Matthew. Now for the record, some areas weren't higher than Matthew as Ft. Pulaski was actually a few inches lower than Matthew.
 
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dsaur said:
Glad you are ok, Larry. The Moles were fretting, lol. Goes to show what a major with a direct hit could do. I sure didn't like some of the model runs. I'm not sure the Sav area is ready for what that could have been. What do you think? So far they've been missing into Charleston. T
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Thanks, Tony. I was very worried for several days about the possibility of a devastating hit. We've been quite lucky for a long time! They'll never be ready for that extreme scenario. But as long as evacuations are done properly, at least the danger to lives would be kept to a minimum.
 
I finally have internet again! Xfinity just randomly went out around 9pm Monday night and was out until sometime this morning. I woke up around 7:30 and saw it was back on.I got to keep power at my house, but I had to lose internet instead. lol Oh well, it was the better trade off anyway.

I'll have to backtrack some pages, but I'm glad to see and hear everyone made it through Irma ok. I still haven't really been outside a whole lot since Irma came through, but from what I have seen my neighborhood didn't have any wind damage, but I know of adjacent neighborhoods that did. It was still a rough and wild Monday regardless.
 
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