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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

I would call that a cat 4 130mph. Backs up the other report from before. BTW, euro looks strong and maybe stronger than last run along the west coast of FL hr 24
 
...IRMA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES
 
034247_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Brent said:
0z Euro barely makes landfall around Tampa otherwise goes to the Big Bend area on Monday

21584204_1519848718098446_826575027_o.png
Click to expand...

Keeping the eye off the coast is not good for the folks in the bend and points north in GA or AL depending on the westward moves it makes
 
Brent said:
0z Euro barely makes landfall around Tampa otherwise goes to the Big Bend area on Monday

21584204_1519848718098446_826575027_o.png
Click to expand...
You know whats funny/scary....the 00z euro is a LONGER duration event for winds for everyone across the SE *especially GA*. I looked at the 12z euro run and was comparing the 2 runs, and we *all of us, especially GA* are going to see wind gusts *according to the euro* over a longer period of time, and still showing about the same speeds, maybe a few mph less this run, but more spread out and longer duration even thought the track was a little further west inland this run.
 
Interesting model runs at 0Z for FL:

GFS: close to its prior runs but on the east side of the mean
CMC: a little west of its 12Z run and fair amount west of the GFS
UKMET: a rather significant shift east of its 12Z run and east of all the other major models
Euro: vs its 12Z run it is a tiny bit west in SW FL but shifts to tiny bit east in NW FL
 
I am now seeing 157mph on radarscope at around 4.4k feet from the radar site NE eye-wall. 119mph SW eye-wall at same altitude.
 
GaWx said:
Interesting model runs at 0Z for FL:

GFS: close to its prior runs but on the east side of the mean
CMC: a little west of its 12Z run and fair amount west of the GFS
UKMET: a rather significant shift east of its 12Z run and east of all the other major models
Euro: vs its 12Z run it is a tiny bit west in SW FL but shifts to tiny bit east in NW FL
Click to expand...
Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.
 
Looks like the NHC track and 00z Euro line up very well and both took the typical slight west shift. I'd like to see the new 00z Euro wind gusts for N. AL, I bet they came up some. When you start getting in or near the 30% NHC Wind speed probabilities, you can have a reasonable idea of what you might could expect and TS force moved more inland also at the 11 EDT update.
 
Ukmet, which did the best job with Irma track so far, is shifting east for the long term track. Puts southern SC back in more action.
 
deltadog03 said:
Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.
Click to expand...
yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.ecmwf_uv10g_mph_georgia_10.png
 
deltadog03 said:
Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.
Click to expand...

I saw that, Chris. Interesting. it is setting up to be a real inland doozy for much of GA per the Euro.

What do you make of the 0Z UKMET shifting well inland? I mean it gets Irma a whopping 40 miles inland/40 miles east of the 0Z Euro and only 20 miles west of the western tip of Lake Okeechobee! This puts SE FL big cities in much worse shape than the other models show for them. Then it moves NNW like the other models but due to its further east starting point, it passes only 30 miles west of Orlando and then near Gainesville! I'm asking because the UKMET has been just about as good as the Euro and really is a good model.for the tropics. What the?
 
EastAtlwx said:
yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.View attachment 1177
Click to expand...
Wow, the 50mph+ gusts did expand in N. AL, it was not that strong in past runs here. Starting to get into tropical storm conditions up here taken at verbatim.
 
GaWx said:
I saw that, Chris. Interesting. it is setting up to be a real inland doozy for much of GA per the Euro.

What do you make of the 0Z UKMET shifting well inland? I mean it gets Irma a whopping 40 miles inland/40 miles east of the 0Z Euro and only 20 miles west of the western tip of Lake Okeechobee! This puts SE FL big cities in much worse shape than the other models show for them. Then it moves NNW like the other models but due to its further east starting point, it passes only 30 miles west of Orlando and then near Gainesville! I'm asking because the UKMET has been just about as good as the Euro and really is a good model.for the tropics. What the?
Click to expand...
I honestly don't know. I would semi toss it only because the GFS and EURO are not super far apart. I would say its possible depending on when this sustains a true north motion. I think it was around 18+ hours of gusts to near 50mph+ here and like 12 hours of 75-85mph with some higher gusts than that for 12 hours. *or close to it*
 
amazing to see model differences at this range but the angle of the coast makes trying to pin down a landfall very hard
 
EastAtlwx said:
yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.View attachment 1177
Click to expand...

Isn't that about where elevation starts ticking up a bit? Looks like it has 90 gusts near Kennesaw MTN.


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Key West, about to get wrecked! Looks like the eye could go right over them!
 
Wow......FFC's AFD is fairly concerning to say the least.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

...Tropical Storm Conditions Likely For Most of Area...

Overview...
With the northern turn from Irma that we having waiting to see
now occurring along with an overall strengthening of the storm, it
is now almost a certainty that a good portion of our area will
receive a significant period of winds that will easily down trees
and powerlines. This will largely be regardless of exact track
since if it moves directly up the FL peninsula we may see
weakening but a circulation that moves right over us. Contrast
this with a more westerly track which may not weaken as much but
whose center will be west of our area. The results of these
scenarios will be the same with Tropical Storm Force winds for
nearly entire area with gusts possible to low end hurricane force
for the SW corner of the forecast area.

Hazards...
With the next update, will need to make some critical decisions
with the arrival of new TCM wind grids. This will include how much
of watch to convert to warning which will be a significant
portion and if we need to expand watch further north which looks
likely. Not out of the question for a hurricane watch for the
southern tier either if NHC winds increase in the least.

Winds...
Wind field on the storm is currently massive and even
with the compactness of a normal hurricane circulation, this
present storm would cover the entire forecast area with tropical
storm force winds given present radii. Add to this that even
though the storm will weaken significantly, we will see the
typical expansion of wind field, and you get a situation where
entire forecast area is likely to see a significant wind event with
considerable amount of trees and powerlines down.

Rainfall...
QPF from WPC looks on target with 6 to 8 inches possible along and
east of the I75 corridor for our Central GA portion. Current Flash
Flood Watch covers this well and no changes to this aspect
planned.

Tornadoes...
Already looking at a risk for most of the area with isolated
tornadoes and any shift west in the track would only further this
threat. Interestingly though, conditions seem remarkably stable
throughout most of the event with highs only in the 60s for
Monday and cigs less than 500 ft. Of course this will be combated
with very low LCLs so thinking even though instability will be
low, tornado threat should remain elevated.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The long term will be heavily weighted by the track of Irma and
Irma is currently forecast to be moving into AL, close to CSG,
Monday night. The vast majority of the major impacts will be
diminishing/ending Monday night and Tuesday.

The rest of the long term after Irma looks to be determined by a
weakening 500mb trof that is forecast to move e of the area Friday
into Saturday.

Temperatures start below normal then return to normal on Friday.
 
Tropical storm warning now up for Metro ATL and has been extended a bit further north than the watch was


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Ya it appears ffc is even considering upgrading the new TS warnings further. If necessary
 
Well it appears all the key west cameras are offline now... can't find any that are working.


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I ve got to give BIG KUDOS to the the "inland" NWS offices (BHM, FFC, GSP, CAE, etc) and to the local broadcast mets in ATL DMA for getting word out on IRMA vs Opal in 1995. AS I remember very little was put out in regards to impacts here with Opal and there were more deaths in GA than FL with her.
 
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