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Tropical Major Hurricane Grace

Downeastnc said:
Yeah that GFS run was ROUGH for MBY....sitting right over my house around 962 MB.......prolly be a windy day.....

Honestly thats my worst case scenario landfall and approach for the Pamlico sound and Emerald Isle area and then up into my area.....a landfall like that would pile the water into the upper Pamlico sound and Tar river, then probably bring strong hurricane force winds into most of eastern NC east of 95 and one that big maybe all the way to RDU.....one of these days this is gonna happen....that run had legit 100-120 knt 850's well inland yikes.....

Toss in 9-15" of rain from the Triangle east cause thats what we really need down this way :rolleyes:

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One of the most beautiful things I saw . You are right one of these days it will happen , it’s due . Though this probably wouldn’t throw massive winds toward the triangle as we stay on the west side of it. You would need that hurricane to landfall further south anywhere from myrtle beach to Wilmington to really hit this area. Then again who knows . I’m in love rn. I swear it would be the best year ever if it happened. Feels like destiny at this point .


Though seriously vast majority of people living in the coast right now have not experienced a hurricane . Like a real hurricane , with all the new development in just sitting here waiting to watch the disaster unfold. Neighborhoods built all along side the neuse river south of new bern , barrier islands developed. It’s nuts . A hurricane of that nature is capable of permanently changing the landscape , submerging parts of some islands entirely ( looking at north topsail beach here it’s been disappearing ) and building new ones elsewhere .
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah fantasy hurricane run I guess....the GFS has been scary good sniffing out storms and tracks 7-10 days out so far this year though....luckily this is a12 day solution so I suspect 06Z looks a lot different.
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Does the 06 show anything at all?
 
Lickwx said:
One of the most beautiful things I saw . You are right one of these days it will happen , it’s due . Though this probably wouldn’t throw massive winds toward the triangle as we stay on the west side of it. You would need that hurricane to landfall further south anywhere from myrtle beach to Wilmington to really hit this area. Then again who knows . I’m in love rn. I swear it would be the best year ever if it happened. Feels like destiny at this point .


Though seriously vast majority of people living in the coast right now have not experienced a hurricane . Like a real hurricane , with all the new development in just sitting here waiting to watch the disaster unfold. Neighborhoods built all along side the neuse river south of new bern , barrier islands developed. It’s nuts . A hurricane of that nature is capable of permanently changing the landscape , submerging parts of some islands entirely ( looking at north topsail beach here it’s been disappearing ) and building new ones elsewhere .
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Emerald Isle is probably the most developed island on our coast.....the island though runs west to east so surge can be kind of funny there on most tracks.......but a Cat 3 or better running NNW right up into Bogue Inlet would put the entire island in the right quad and hit them with south winds producing a surge bigger than anything in living memory....then it would hammer the main IBX areas including Greenville, New Bern etc and would be bad for the OBX proper, about the only part of the coast that might escape is the south coast as the winds there would be mostly offshore...still I wont gas up the genny based on one run for a hit 12 days out.....
 
This will need to get stronger/ north if it's going to miss the islands but that will likely expose it to shear. You can see on the 6z gfs it briefly strengthens as it approaches an upper trough into a better upper level environment but as it moves west closer to the trough axis it gets sheared and weakens.
 
metwannabe said:
Hold on a minute.....

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My heart is too weak to handle this. Please make it stop. I literally jump with excitement when i see that, must be what its like for yall seeing a 30 inch snow map or something. I need help. Help please. Pleaseee! Why on earth does this excite me? It shouldn't ! Its bad but but I just cant help it!
 
I mean the GFS has it slamming Sav as a major, slowing down, interacting with a trough, precip maximum N/NE, then slowly turning N... Sav is gone and followed by flooding of Biblical proportions. Birdman or lizard licker, not sure which, just took over this model and drew it up like they wanted it
 
metwannabe said:
I mean the GFS has it slamming Sav as a major, slowing down, interacting with a trough, precip maximum N/NE, then slowly turning N... Sav is gone and followed by flooding of Biblical proportions. Birdman or lizard licker, not sure which, just took over this model and drew it up like they wanted it
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You posted what I was thinking, this run checks all super weenie boxes.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This run isn’t even close to what’s gonna happen, hehe, in all seriousness, remember the GFS weenie snow runs back in winter, well this is just a cane version lol
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My view on these long range depictions is that I simply look to get the "ball on the court". Doesn't matter landfall location right now that will change. The key is it getting into the southwest Atlantic in the area of the bahamas and then we can worry about Florida to the OBX.

I just want to see consistent modeling a of hurricane in the right spot.
 
metwannabe said:
Good thing the GFS sucks and it's D10, it's about to pull a Hugo with this thing geez
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GFS has been very good with tropical systems so far this season even in the 10+ day range....still its more the fact it has a hurricane at all that is the focus at this range, if it holds up for a few days then it becomes a worry.....especially if it keeps landfalling between Jacksonville FL and Hatteras as those almost always end up hitting up here.
 
Hot towers going up.

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