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Tropical Major Hurricane Grace

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical
Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach portions of the
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Now 30/50.
 
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Brent said:
View attachment 87974
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It is amazing how much rainfall the SE has already received from tropical systems. In addition to Fred, 95L may also be coming. No drought or heatwave to worry about this summer (outside of Shetley and Grumpy). Just high heat indices, which I'll take over the alternative. The bigger worries by far are flooding potential and mosquitos.
 
GaWx said:
It is amazing how much rainfall the SE has already received from tropical systems. In addition to Fred, 95L may also be coming. No drought or heatwave to worry about this summer (outside of Shetley and Grumpy). Just high heat indices, which I'll take over the alternative. The bigger worries by far are flooding potential and mosquitos.
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The other worry may be the possibility of widespread tree damage and power outages across parts of the southeast. If Fred were to dump some of the rainfall totals that models are putting out there and is then followed by a stronger storm a few days later, you could have widespread 25-30mph or higher in areas that have very saturated grounds.
 
Now 30/60.
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about
1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to gradually become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands
by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
 
I'm not sure how good the ICON is with TCs but it has this:
icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-60.png
 
Snowfan said:
I'm not sure how good the ICON is with TCs but it has this:
icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-60.png
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Icon has been sounding the alarms for a while now on this feature behind Fred (also it picked out Fred first I believe) it always kept Fred for the most part at bay… but it wants to really make this next storm something that makes the eyebrows go up THATS for sure .. nice little high pressure directly above it .. it’s certainly not receiving with that look.
 
Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Now 60/70.
 
The 12z GFS had an interesting track with what will be Grace!
 
A small low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity primarily west of the center. However, environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend. The system is forecast to move generally westward at
about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Code red
 
The GFS is doing something weird. It basically stalls Invest 95L near the Bahamas.
 
Snowfan said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_46.png

264 hours. Still intense.
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Clearly an outlier … but one could wonder .. is this going to be the next most talked about weather event … I’m certainly loving model watching checking every frame .. haven’t had the urge to do that in a while .. especially know it’ll all probably be gone in 6 hours
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_48.png

Landfall. Basically pulls a Dorian over the Bahamas and a Florence by hitting NC.
 
Yeah that GFS run was ROUGH for MBY....sitting right over my house around 962 MB.......prolly be a windy day.....

Honestly thats my worst case scenario landfall and approach for the Pamlico sound and Emerald Isle area and then up into my area.....a landfall like that would pile the water into the upper Pamlico sound and Tar river, then probably bring strong hurricane force winds into most of eastern NC east of 95 and one that big maybe all the way to RDU.....one of these days this is gonna happen....that run had legit 100-120 knt 850's well inland yikes.....

Toss in 9-15" of rain from the Triangle east cause thats what we really need down this way :rolleyes:

1628847951663.png
 
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