May 2021 Discussion Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez we’re gonna stay in this torch forever

 

[SD]

Am I crazy or did Tropicaltidbits get rid of 500mb height and anomaly maps overnight? All I can get is vorticity.

Just mentally color the SE red and you don't need them

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez

 

[Avalanche]

Wouldn't be entirely shocking to see a shower or 2 Saturday afternoon with a weak sfc convergence zone and a little moisture pooling

Darn shower better be over my house. This drought is serious.

 

[SD]

Darn shower better be over my house. This drought is serious.

Ha I wouldn't get too excited. We are probably 8-14 days away from real rain chances

 

[ryan1234]

Ha I wouldn't get too excited. We are probably 8-14 days away from real rain chances

#Flashdrought

I bet that will be tossed around for the next 2 weeks or so. Still better to bake in May than than August. Hoping we can get one more strong front in later in the month to hopefully break down this ridge. I think 2019 is a great comparison. I just hope we can not flashdrought in Sept/Oct. That was miserable.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[SD]

I wasn't that impressed with the heat on the EPS/Euro until mid next week

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yesss

 

[Chazwin]

I wasn't that impressed with the heat on the EPS/Euro until mid next week

This was what I was mentioning the other day about the EURO over doing heat in the mid-range. For me it’s gone from having highs in the 94-96 degree range this weekend to now being in the 90-92 degree range now. Right now it’s showing me in the 97-99 degree range mid next week, but it wouldn’t shock me if we end up closer to 93-95 then. I think what’s going to be most impressive about this heat wave coming up is the number of days in a row above 90. We’re looking at 7-8 straight days 90 or above in May which would certainly be out of the norm.

 

[SD]

This was what I was mentioning the other day about the EURO over doing heat in the mid-range. For me it’s gone from having highs in the 94-96 degree range this weekend to now being in the 90-92 degree range now. Right now it’s showing me in the 97-99 degree range mid next week, but it wouldn’t shock me if we end up closer to 93-95 then. I think what’s going to be most impressive about this heat wave coming up is the number of days in a row above 90. We’re looking at 7-8 straight days 90 or above in May which would certainly be out of the norm.

It's funny how the models heat bias in the D5+ range during the warm season doesn't get a ton of pub. GFS and Euro certainly overdo 2m temps in the warm season. Maybe the gfs got better with the recent upgrades idk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Many global Models = higher dewpoints/lower temps towards veri, that’s why many days in summer we see surprise pop ups somewhere that manage to break the cap due to better LLvL moisture then modeled

 

[SD]

Many global Models = higher dewpoints/lower temps towards veri, that’s why many days in summer we see surprise pop ups somewhere that manage to break the cap due to better LLvL moisture then modeled

Models have to be raising the BL too high and over mixing. That's all I can figure

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Where’s the -NAO now weenies

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Where’s the -NAO now weenies View attachment 84095

You are a weenie ?

 

[SD]

Where’s the -NAO now weenies View attachment 84095

I bet the Euro busts high here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You have the weenie comment of the year however

12z GEFS look more interesting for our April ANA FRONT ... I will get my late flakes.

You are a weenie ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

You have the weenie comment of the year however

I know I’m a weenie tho ... also in my defense it did get interesting around that time .. u also pulled that up quick a little too quick if u ask me ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s some weird stuff/noise the euro is doing with those daytime dews

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh boy