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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I think Friday has some huge hail potential in the Carolinas and then western SE, when do you often see this sort of sounding in NC ? 
Probably some baseball sized hail over your way Friday easily
Wouldn’t shock me if they go enhanced over the hail threat, has there ever been a moderate risk driven hail threat ?
Hail from hell 
euro digging that shortwave farther west this run
Lol western ridge running away like it stole something
THIS IS FEBRUARY ALL OVER AGAIN 
It's great, but it's already switched over to ugly humidity here. DP in the high 60s now.
We’ve gone from this to this insane 
Capping will be an issue here. Highly conditional threat.
Texarkana and eastward (per usual) will get the brunt of the action.
Delayed but not denied right 
Oof. We are going to trend our way into a big severe event 
#februaryrepeat with wedges 
That looks like something you would see out in upper Midwest at the height of their severe season
The typical westward shift is showing up on the 12Z Euro ens. to nobody's surprise. I think the chill will end up delayed but not denied and may take til 4/16 or maybe even 4/17 for the eastern SE. This delay would seem to be cold bias related.
Of course, it wouldn't actually be delayed if it does that. It just looks that way because the models fool us by having it too early initially.
Per 12Z Euro ens westward shifts vs 0Z, cold likely won't make it to E SE til 4/17-8.
Of course, it wouldn't actually be delayed if it does that. It just looks that way because the models fool us by having it too early initially.
Per 12Z Euro ens westward shifts vs 0Z, cold likely won't make it to E SE til 4/17-8.
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Pacific ridge is becoming poorly tilted, with already short wavelengths, that encourages westward shifts and digging out west 
but you are going to have to be careful that trof over the ATL doesn't retrograde over us
Yep, wouldn’t mind it tbh, would rather have that and some CAD vs a frost, bring it on
That’s a somewhat troubling look for severe weather 
I mean, if you all want some severe weather, we're going to have suffer through some cold days after the frontal passage. It's a double edge sword but it's part of the season.
Yep, ups and downs/changes are perfectly normal whether or not there is severe since we're still not near the endless summer doldrums yet.
It would be nice to actually have a BN month for a change and there's some hope for April. My area hasn't had a BN month (defined as 2 or more BN) based on 30 year normals since Nov of 2019 and then April of 2018 before that. GW ftl.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I just dont understand why one would want below normal temps in a month that is very pleasant on average.
I strongly prefer BN, especially Mar-Nov. That also implies lower than normal dewpoints. Here it is normal to have some unpleasantly humid and warm days. A rare BN month would minimize that.
Hmmm, looks like we're overachieving on temps (despite the CAA), which suggests impressive mixing heights.
DFW is currently at 79*F. Might be able to snag a 80*F high after all today.
DFW is currently at 79*F. Might be able to snag a 80*F high after all today.
They're gluttons for punishment.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I can certainly understand the humidity part !
Nope, different strokes for different folks. Life would be boring if we all had the same preferences.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
The flip side I don't understand why anyone in this part of the country would ever hope for above normal temps, especially when above normal is the long term normal now. I'll take below normal any day I can get it. Hot and muggy is garantee for all of us. Today was too flipping hot for early April in my book.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I can understand why some would want above normal temps in the winter. It can get quite chilly deep into dixie. Most people hate the cold.
88.1 today
I can't understand this. I don't understand that. We have different preferences, end of story. That's all that needs to be understood imo.
Meanwhile, the Happy hour GFS has an EASTWARD (you read that right) (colder) shift this time in the first 6 days fwiw. Back and forth go the models. Where they will stop, nobody knows.
Meanwhile, the Happy hour GFS has an EASTWARD (you read that right) (colder) shift this time in the first 6 days fwiw. Back and forth go the models. Where they will stop, nobody knows.