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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

The TPV lobe is throwing on the breaks in more recent NWP runs and slowing down so much it'll strengthen the CAD for this system & probably kill off the severe threat in the NC piedmont. Same can not be said for coastal areas though.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend.gif
 
The TPV lobe is throwing on the breaks in more recent NWP runs and slowing down so much it'll strengthen the CAD for this system & probably kill off the severe threat in the NC piedmont. Same can not be said for coastal areas though.

View attachment 74357
That TPV has ruined our lives the last 3 weeks
 
NAM has the warm front far south, but has a nice elevated thunderstorm/elevated supercell setup With MUcape over the inversion across the upstate/NC Piedmont DD00E002-0802-4E23-A9C2-6D3FDCE84DCA.png03F29AD7-DF54-4108-9F69-68467E4467F5.png61239599-F74C-46AA-B554-776458374850.png2A77040B-CB62-40A9-ABDF-3D43F107B160.png
 
Man the models have been doubling down on Southern Alabama/Mississippi/Georgia and that’s where the CIPS max out.... these are some some scary soundings, not often you see such good low level lapse rates in Dixie like this D3352890-05CC-44F7-9E7A-1B75AA95BB32.pngB7A188CB-C44F-4F4B-9AFD-E6FB9BEEC854.png6842D04E-78A6-4611-AD9F-9DF307C0A12F.png56198BBF-85B9-400A-AC5F-CA56D289B30C.png
 
Here's the 12z HREF for tomorrow. Looks like a legit elevated supercell threat for @deltadog03. All the sfc based CAPE is down near the FL border, so tornado threat probably limited or non-existent in Macon unless the warm front is a lot further north than forecast.

View attachment 74873


View attachment 74874
Lmao thunder is gonna be loud as heck Monday night with all that MUcape over the inversion, camera time 009F12B1-0B70-4558-B39D-68FD319201DF.pngBEBEC1B7-F13D-4816-A75C-B0F828AC7CC2.pngC1374B4F-394F-4660-82D4-E1EF0858A51C.png
 
Would be epic if the inversion went away and we got actual severe weather !

Best way we can do that is just have this low track further NW increase divergence over the CAD dome and rain really hard into the low-level inversion, that would accentuate lateral mixing which would erode the CAD faster. Might get real close to some sfc based CAPE here in Fayetteville
 
For SENC, ...

Elevated instability
introduces chance for thunder Monday night, though despite
decent shear present, lingering stable layer at the surface
could hinder severe weather development. Trailing cold front
moves across Tuesday afternoon, ushering in dry air and finally
scattering clouds that have been in place for almost 6 days at
that point.
 
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