You know....
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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The TPV lobe is throwing on the breaks in more recent NWP runs and slowing down so much it'll strengthen the CAD for this system & probably kill off the severe threat in the NC piedmont. Same can not be said for coastal areas though.
That TPV has ruined our lives the last 3 weeks
Lovely 
NAM has the warm front far south, but has a nice elevated thunderstorm/elevated supercell setup With MUcape over the inversion across the upstate/NC Piedmont 
lol wudge 
Shaggy
Member
I'm 39 but 35 miles southeast of me is 66......I will be SOOOOOOOO pissed
ECMWF still isn’t excited but 
We can’t even get clap of Thunder. Pathetic
elevated thunderstorms ftw 
Man the models have been doubling down on Southern Alabama/Mississippi/Georgia and that’s where the CIPS max out.... these are some some scary soundings, not often you see such good low level lapse rates in Dixie like this 
UKMET doubling down on the same exact areas, like the v16 has solidly steep low level lapse rates for a wintertime Dixie setup 
Ya that setup looks portentously very nasty
Oh boy euro now has warm sector in SGA/SAL 
Oh my that’s nasty 
“Damn” 
Now the Euro is on board, now I'm worried.
JHS
Member
We sure got it here on Thursday. Lighting hit something in our yard as the storm was leaving.
Soooo....
yeeshhh
Geez I don’t like that?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 12z HREF for tomorrow. Looks like a legit elevated supercell threat for @deltadog03. All the sfc based CAPE is down near the FL border, so tornado threat probably limited or non-existent in Macon unless the warm front is a lot further north than forecast.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol wow almost 1000 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH
Lmao thunder is gonna be loud as heck Monday night with all that MUcape over the inversion, camera time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow, you're not kidding, there's like 1000 MUCAPE and still a heck of an inversion in the low-levels. Thunder will be rattling our houses.
WOW that is pretty high, this far out, isn't?
LickWx
Member
Would be epic if the inversion went away and we got actual severe weather !
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Best way we can do that is just have this low track further NW increase divergence over the CAD dome and rain really hard into the low-level inversion, that would accentuate lateral mixing which would erode the CAD faster. Might get real close to some sfc based CAPE here in Fayetteville
Shaggy
Member
Surely ye jest? Interesting weather in central or eastern NC? ?
What about Columbia SC?
who knows we might see severe wx since we can’t see winter wx.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
From SPC for the Carolinas
???
"Will maintain MRGL risk category for now and monitor for possible SLGT risk upgrade in upcoming day 1 outlooks."
???
"Will maintain MRGL risk category for now and monitor for possible SLGT risk upgrade in upcoming day 1 outlooks."
Anyone with CAPE maps from euro run? It looked quite nasty around here.
farleydawg792
Member
What about north of ya Delta? Say Athens area.
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For SENC, ...
Elevated instability
introduces chance for thunder Monday night, though despite
decent shear present, lingering stable layer at the surface
could hinder severe weather development. Trailing cold front
moves across Tuesday afternoon, ushering in dry air and finally
scattering clouds that have been in place for almost 6 days at
that point.
Elevated instability
introduces chance for thunder Monday night, though despite
decent shear present, lingering stable layer at the surface
could hinder severe weather development. Trailing cold front
moves across Tuesday afternoon, ushering in dry air and finally
scattering clouds that have been in place for almost 6 days at
that point.