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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

The TPV lobe is throwing on the breaks in more recent NWP runs and slowing down so much it'll strengthen the CAD for this system & probably kill off the severe threat in the NC piedmont. Same can not be said for coastal areas though.

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The TPV lobe is throwing on the breaks in more recent NWP runs and slowing down so much it'll strengthen the CAD for this system & probably kill off the severe threat in the NC piedmont. Same can not be said for coastal areas though.

View attachment 74357
That TPV has ruined our lives the last 3 weeks
 
NAM has the warm front far south, but has a nice elevated thunderstorm/elevated supercell setup With MUcape over the inversion across the upstate/NC Piedmont DD00E002-0802-4E23-A9C2-6D3FDCE84DCA.png03F29AD7-DF54-4108-9F69-68467E4467F5.png61239599-F74C-46AA-B554-776458374850.png2A77040B-CB62-40A9-ABDF-3D43F107B160.png
 
Man the models have been doubling down on Southern Alabama/Mississippi/Georgia and that’s where the CIPS max out.... these are some some scary soundings, not often you see such good low level lapse rates in Dixie like this D3352890-05CC-44F7-9E7A-1B75AA95BB32.pngB7A188CB-C44F-4F4B-9AFD-E6FB9BEEC854.png6842D04E-78A6-4611-AD9F-9DF307C0A12F.png56198BBF-85B9-400A-AC5F-CA56D289B30C.png
 
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