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Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

Avalanche said:
Question is, with nominal temps up NE of here, does the CAA help much? Wonder what our breaking point is with cold/dews before the eventual warming.
Click to expand...
It'll be interesting to see how dew points go this evening that'll be the primary driver. If we see 32 down at the nc/sc border with 29/30 down to RDU and GSO that's going to be problematic
 
RNK just issued WSWs up in south central VA, including Rockingham and Caswell across the border.
 
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FallsLake said:
Knowing RAH, they wont do the same for their zones until WSW criteria is close to being met.
Click to expand...

Many spots are closing in on 0.2" of ice accrual already after today, WSW criteria is 0.25" & none of today's ice is going anywhere. They really need to pull the trigger on Winter Storm Warnings or Ice Storm Warnings in the N Piedmont.
 
From a friend. Per RNK

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged winter weather conditions are
likely. Additional winter weather is forecast for the period
Sunday through Thursday with several additional chances for snow,
sleet, and freezing rain. Temperatures will struggle to rise much
above freezing during the next seven days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Warning issued for Person, Vance and Granville Counties, the advisories have been extended through Sunday morning. Rah starting to realize the CAD ice potential now.

Also temp down to 32.0 now, so this may end up being a little worse even this far east. Interesting night ahead
 
Person, Granville, & Vance counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning

895
FXUS62 KRAH 122031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold air damming surface high pressure centered over the NE United
States will continue to extend into VA and NC through Sunday.
Meanwhile a series of lows will form and track NE up the coast of
the SE US and Carolinas through the same period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

...A Winter Storm Storm Warning Has Been Issued for Va Bordering
Counties through Early Sunday...

...All other counties in the Advisory area have been extended
through Early Sunday...

A strong/mature CAD will remain in place across central NC through
Sunday, which will lock the cold air in place. A series of southern
stream shortwave troughs, a lead trough currently near the Rio
Grande/northern Mexico, with the trailing trough over Baja, will
eject ENE, becoming increasingly sheared once they reach the SE US.
In advance of these two shortwaves, a multitude of upper impulses
will move atop the cold air place, resulting in episodic overrunning
and WAA. These upper waves will also spawn a series of weak sfc lows
along a stalled front that extends from the GOM to off the mid-
Atlantic coast. The most prominent of those sfc lows, will
eventually become better organized off the NC coast late tonight
through Saturday night.

Next wave of forcing and precip is forecast to arrive after midnight
and will envelop the area through Saturday evening, before tapering
off. After another lull early Sunday, the next wave/round of lift
and precip will spread north into the area through the afternoon.
This time around the axis of heaviest precip will be focused across
the east-southern eastern NC, with lesser amounts to the west,
ranging from 1 to 2". This second soaking will likely lead to some
minor river flooding along portions of the Neuse and Tar river.

Temperatures across the area range from 30 to 33 north to 35 to 38
degrees. These temperatures are not going to fluctuate much over the
next 48 hours, likely a 1 to 2 degree variation between day and
night. Thus, the northern portions of the forecast are set-up for
another round of freezing rains, while southern portions will
continue to see all rain. Expect additional ice accumulations of 0.2-
0.25" across the far northern/VA bordering counties to 0.10-0.20
across the Triad, to a trace to 0.10" across the northern Triangle.
Given these ice amounts and expected impacts, have upgraded Person,
Granville, and Vance counties to a Winter Storm Warning. All
remaining counties in the advisory will remain unchanged. However,
it was decided to extend both the warning and advisory in time
through Sunday morning as the freezing rain threat will persist
through that time. The best time of seeing any ice accrual will be
during the nighttime/early morning hours.

Confidence is increasing that temperatures will finally warm above
freezing everywhere on Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 30s
across the north to lower 40s south.
 
metwannabe said:
Warning issued for Person, Vance and Granville Counties, the advisories have been extended through Sunday morning. Rah starting to realize the CAD ice potential now.

Also temp down to 32.0 now, so this may end up being a little worse even this far east. Interesting night ahead
Click to expand...

I'm a little surprised they wouldn't include Forsyth/Guilford in the warning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Person, Granville, & Vance counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning

895
FXUS62 KRAH 122031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold air damming surface high pressure centered over the NE United
States will continue to extend into VA and NC through Sunday.
Meanwhile a series of lows will form and track NE up the coast of
the SE US and Carolinas through the same period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

...A Winter Storm Storm Warning Has Been Issued for Va Bordering
Counties through Early Sunday...

...All other counties in the Advisory area have been extended
through Early Sunday...

A strong/mature CAD will remain in place across central NC through
Sunday, which will lock the cold air in place. A series of southern
stream shortwave troughs, a lead trough currently near the Rio
Grande/northern Mexico, with the trailing trough over Baja, will
eject ENE, becoming increasingly sheared once they reach the SE US.
In advance of these two shortwaves, a multitude of upper impulses
will move atop the cold air place, resulting in episodic overrunning
and WAA. These upper waves will also spawn a series of weak sfc lows
along a stalled front that extends from the GOM to off the mid-
Atlantic coast. The most prominent of those sfc lows, will
eventually become better organized off the NC coast late tonight
through Saturday night.

Next wave of forcing and precip is forecast to arrive after midnight
and will envelop the area through Saturday evening, before tapering
off. After another lull early Sunday, the next wave/round of lift
and precip will spread north into the area through the afternoon.
This time around the axis of heaviest precip will be focused across
the east-southern eastern NC, with lesser amounts to the west,
ranging from 1 to 2". This second soaking will likely lead to some
minor river flooding along portions of the Neuse and Tar river.

Temperatures across the area range from 30 to 33 north to 35 to 38
degrees. These temperatures are not going to fluctuate much over the
next 48 hours, likely a 1 to 2 degree variation between day and
night. Thus, the northern portions of the forecast are set-up for
another round of freezing rains, while southern portions will
continue to see all rain. Expect additional ice accumulations of 0.2-
0.25" across the far northern/VA bordering counties to 0.10-0.20
across the Triad, to a trace to 0.10" across the northern Triangle.
Given these ice amounts and expected impacts, have upgraded Person,
Granville, and Vance counties to a Winter Storm Warning. All
remaining counties in the advisory will remain unchanged. However,
it was decided to extend both the warning and advisory in time
through Sunday morning as the freezing rain threat will persist
through that time. The best time of seeing any ice accrual will be
during the nighttime/early morning hours.

Confidence is increasing that temperatures will finally warm above
freezing everywhere on Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 30s
across the north to lower 40s south.
Click to expand...
While still could be some significant issues for those in the NW piedmont, this is one time I'm glad we're dealing with marginal temps, so to speak.... if we were in the 20's with the long duration event, we'd be in serious trouble.
 
Poimen said:
I'm a little surprised they wouldn't include Forsyth/Guilford in the warning.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm also a little surprised by that. Ice accums are around 0.05-0.1" across the triad an additional 0.15-0.2" ish easily puts many areas at or above the threshold for WSWs. Sounds like they're just gonna wait & see...

Ugh
 
norcarolinian said:
Me too (but not really knowing RAH). I already have close to 0.2" of ice here.
Click to expand...

Interesting, did you send in this updated report to NWS RAH? (I don't see it in their NWS LSRs database). Might actually be a good idea to do so lol I'm sure if they saw parts of Guilford nearing 0.2" already they'd strongly reconsider WSWs
 
Webberweather53 said:
Interesting, did you send in this updated report to NWS RAH? (I don't see it in their NWS LSRs database). Might actually be a good idea to do so lol I'm sure if they saw parts of Guilford nearing 0.2" already they'd strongly reconsider WSWs
Click to expand...

yes I did. with pics. They responded "nice pictures!"
 
SD said:
It'll be interesting to see how dew points go this evening that'll be the primary driver. If we see 32 down at the nc/sc border with 29/30 down to RDU and GSO that's going to be problematic
Click to expand...


During the *Heavy* rates of rain here, it was *White Rain*.. so much so I thought it was "snowing".. seriously..
 
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I noticed Stokes was left out of the WSWs from Blacksburg. Stokes is immediately N of Forsyth.

My gut tells me more counties will be included soon. Thinking Durham to Forsyth, but sometimes predicting them ain't easy. (I didn't think they'd only include the 3 current counties for example)
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I noticed Stokes was left out of the WSWs from Blacksburg. Stokes is immediately N of Forsyth.

My gut tells me more counties will be included soon. Thinking Durham to Forsyth, but sometimes predicting them ain't easy. (I didn't think they'd only include the 3 current counties for example)
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm also a little surprised by that one too, saw many 0.15-0.2" reports in Stokes
 
Getting close.

bfbbd238beac44c96d7f7d044ea1e70d.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Here's a quick map I've put together for this event. I chose to go w/ total ice accumulations since that will have a more direct effect on overall impacts than additional accums tonight. Up to 0.5" total ice possible near the VA border, two tenths to a third of an inch of ice possible in the Triad area. Perhaps a light glaze or so in Raleigh.

Crippling ice storm potentially on the way NE of Greensboro

February 12-13 2021 Forecast Snowmap2.jpg
 
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