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Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

Crow said:
It’s 33.4 here in northern Franklin County so I would say their icontrol is incorrect.
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Your not far from Henderson (which seems to be the cold spot for the state):
Fog/Mist
29°F
-2°C
Humidity99%
Wind SpeedNE 6 mph
Barometer30.22 in
Dewpoint29°F (-2°C)
Visibility4.00 mi
Wind Chill23°F (-5°C)
Last update12 Feb 1:15 pm EST
 
FallsLake said:
I had jumped up to ~35 earlier, but now have dropped to 33.6 degrees. For that to happen at mid day, colder air has to be filtering in now for us Triangle folks.
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Yeah that's what happened here. Was up to 35 and got down to 34.7.
 
FallsLake said:
Your not far from Henderson (which seems to be the cold spot for the state):
Fog/Mist
29°F
-2°C
Humidity99%
Wind SpeedNE 6 mph
Barometer30.22 in
Dewpoint29°F (-2°C)
Visibility4.00 mi
Wind Chill23°F (-5°C)
Last update12 Feb 1:15 pm EST
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13 miles south, as the crow flies.
 
Currently here it is 31.6 with a DP of 31.2. Starting to get a little nervous about ice accrual, especially if it drops below 30 tonight
 
FallsLake said:
If it correct Raleigh northeastward and westward is in for significant ice (> .25").
View attachment 74278
And it would still be coming down (as freezing rain) for the areas described.
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Is that QPF or FRAM? With temperatures so marginal, I would expect much of the raw QPF to not accrete, especially if it’s moderate/heavy rates.
 
superjames1992 said:
Is that QPF or FRAM? With temperatures so marginal, I would expect much of the raw QPF to not accrete, especially if it’s moderate/heavy rates.
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I would guess it's only QPF. It's from the Pivotal site. Temps do get down to around 30 for my area over towards you. Dew points get down to ~28. With that, and this occurring overnight we may be able to pull something out of the hat.

Edit: it is QPF
 
Wow look at this unfold before our eyes .. now Raleigh looks to be really in the CAD wedge .. HRRR has hours upon hours of freezing rain and I’ve been checking the hourly HRRRs and something very dangerous I’m seeing is that dew points are getting lower for Saturday morning while precip is already moved in ... temps staying at 31 for a lot of it too here in Raleigh .. much colder than what it had even 6 hours ago
 
MichaelJ said:
Currently here it is 31.6 with a DP of 31.2. Starting to get a little nervous about ice accrual, especially if it drops below 30 tonight
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When I lived in Greensboro Clemmons was always a few below W-S/HP/GSO/Kernersville. Lewisville was always a tad cooler as well. Topography?
 
kstrickland0823 said:
34/34 in SW Chatham! No drizzle atm! But never made it to the predicted high of 38. Was 36 for about an hr then started dropping again.


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Yeah I would lean towards the HRRR actually winning out with this one, seeing how it's the closest to current observations atm.... with good NE winds blowing hard to bet against a decent CAD airmass.
 
Avalanche said:
Do the valley areas around south of Lenoir and Old Fort do better with ice accrual/temps?
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Old fort and the Bat cave area usually do very well with ice accrual. Not as familiar with the Lenoir area. Here where I am, I’m about 2 miles from the Blue Ridge Parkway at 3,000 feet on east facing slope so it accrues here very well.
 
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