Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

[KyloG]

No

 

[SD]

No

View attachment 73694

That's a hell of a jump down to the SC border

 

[Brick Tamland]

No

View attachment 73694

Well, that doesn't look good.

 

[Nomanslandva]

getting nervous about this one forsure

Another tick south and maybe we can sniff some snow?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Another tick south and maybe we can sniff some snow?

Nah the track screwed us, I would be very surprised if we even saw a few flakes out of this.

 

[SD]

There are probably going to be a lot of 32 and rain readings along I40 late Friday into early Saturday. Good thing we aren't tapping into the air mass over the midwest more effectively. This could have been a major ice storm and may still be for the NC border counties into southern va

 

[Avalanche]

Freezing rain events can be really tricky to forecast. The last big ice storm I remember is the one that hit here Dec 2002. I don't think it was forecasted to be that bad. I remember one time in 6th grade I was getting on the bus and it was raining, and it turned into freezing rain. The roads were an ice rink not too long after I got on the bus, and the bus ended up getting stuck at the bottom of a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take me home, and their were wrecks all over the place. It was supposed to be only rain. Like with any kind of winter event around the Triangle, a degree or two can make all the difference.

Winter of 88-89

 

[Weatherlover92]

Disclaimer: I'm not posting this to validate the accuracy of this model (so don't shoot the messenger), only to highlight that it's in the NAM's camp on temperatures, actually it's much more aggressive on the CAD. This is 00z Sat.

NAM (12km)

NAM (3km)

 

[Nomanslandva]

Nah the track screwed us, I would be very surprised if we even saw a few flakes out of this.

Ok, we hope for IP to save us from light out! Maybe it trends warmer and no worries at all?

 

[Deleted member 1449]

 

[KyloG]

It’s a good thing the icon usually models temps to cold. ?

 

[deltadog03]

12km NAM nassssty wedge and getting progressively colder

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It’s a good thing the icon usually models temps to cold. ?

View attachment 73704View attachment 73705

Icon is usually too warm at the surface.

 

[Chazwin]

Disclaimer: I'm not posting this to validate the accuracy of this model (so don't shoot the messenger), only to highlight that it's in the NAM's camp on temperatures, actually it's much more aggressive on the CAD. This is 00z Sat.
View attachment 73698
NAM (12km)
View attachment 73699
NAM (3km)
View attachment 73700

I’ve found that the 3km NAM really starts to gain effectiveness around the 36 hour mark so it’s not really in it’s top range yet. Also even though the WRF is probably too cold, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of a colder look verifying. There’s a lot of snow cover to our north and it will be east for models to underestimate the strength of CAD...

 

[NWMSGuy]

Been riding the CMC & RGEM for the past few days. At 8:10 PM CST time tonight my county in Northwest MS was finally placed under the Ice Storm Warning.

 

[jjwxman]

The 00z CMC jumps on board with a significant ice threat for favored CAD areas east of the Apps on Saturday.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I stopped looking at this and now I see this ? Lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Would you look at that

 

[Jrips2710]

Would you look at that

#wedges lol

 

[superjames1992]

The 00z Euro isn’t enthused about this for NC.