• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

Severe has legs now, and I'll bet we will be dealing with the possibilities more than once next week.
It’s was a matter of time tbh, all I took was the -NAO backing off and favorable tropical forcing for warmth (phase 7), one thing to watch tho it’s that SE Canada vortex
 
No offense but how is this any different to wishing for an ice storm?
Ice is basically rain but but below freezing, it’s trash, it’s useless, sucks. severe weather is what I’m interested in, and a major part of my photography, especially when I go out west and chase it this spring, and in general it’s always been something I’m into
 
SPC
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across parts of the
central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday.
Low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the Gulf
Coast states and the Carolinas ahead of a northeastward-developing
surface low. A severe risk may develop across parts of these
regions, mainly from late Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence
in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based storms is not
great enough to include 15% severe probabilities for now.

Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that another
large-scale upper trough will move across the central/eastern states
around the Day 6/Wednesday to Day 7/Thursday time frame. Some severe
risk may once again materialize across parts of the central Gulf
Coast states and perhaps the Carolinas as low-level moisture returns
northward across these areas. Regardless, there is far too much
uncertainty in the prospect for substantial boundary-layer
destabilization to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2021
 
Couple of GFS soundings out of south central GA at 18z Thu
gfs_2021021206_156_32.0--84.5.png
gfs_2021021206_156_32.0--84.75.png
 
Also with the second one, the SE ridge is trending stronger, this one has more a higher ceiling imo then the first one 135C2D49-AF14-48D0-A83B-D650EAC86044.gifE0D27DD8-AAAC-4B47-B778-EBF221A081F0.png4B7DD87A-1931-4F10-9224-0C6EA0FC9C1D.png
 
Back
Top