Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So the v16 pulled a euro and shows crazy parameters for AL lol, but it shows much of the SE getting severe weather

 

[Webberweather53]

So the v16 pulled a euro and shows crazy parameters for AL lol, but it shows much of the SE getting severe weather View attachment 74122View attachment 74123View attachment 74124

Oh wow this is starting to hold some real promise it seems.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh wow this is starting to hold some real promise it seems.

Yea it’s hawt, I love La Niña febs, hope we can stay away from CAD tbh

 

[J.C.]

Severe has legs now, and I'll bet we will be dealing with the possibilities more than once next week.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woof

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Severe has legs now, and I'll bet we will be dealing with the possibilities more than once next week.

It’s was a matter of time tbh, all I took was the -NAO backing off and favorable tropical forcing for warmth (phase 7), one thing to watch tho it’s that SE Canada vortex

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC Wudge, get outa here

 

[jackendrickwx]

CMC Wudge, get outa here View attachment 74129

CMC showing wedge is interesting, @Webberweather53 ain’t the CMC one of the best CAD models in the 5-7 range?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a impressive signal, wowsa

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yeah I’ll be shocked if we don’t see some legit severe. Usually with these types of fronts you’ll get the extremes on either side.

 

[Engeo]

I want all the smoke View attachment 73969View attachment 73971View attachment 73972

No offense but how is this any different to wishing for an ice storm?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

No offense but how is this any different to wishing for an ice storm?

Ice is basically rain but but below freezing, it’s trash, it’s useless, sucks. severe weather is what I’m interested in, and a major part of my photography, especially when I go out west and chase it this spring, and in general it’s always been something I’m into

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh wow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro Wedge ??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sigh

 

[EastAtlwx]

Would be a good way to end this story if we got wedged in between two interesting solutions.. pun intended ??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Sigh View attachment 74153

Can we get a surface temp trend too for the same time period?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can we get a surface temp trend too for the same time period?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[jackendrickwx]

View attachment 74192

Damn! Didn't see that coming

 

[LickWx]

Oh wow View attachment 74144View attachment 74145View attachment 74146View attachment 74147

That’s a look I have not seen a while, finally things back to normal! Climo favored areas getting what’s normal . Charlotte cold rain .

 

[jackendrickwx]

SPC

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across parts of the
central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday.
Low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the Gulf
Coast states and the Carolinas ahead of a northeastward-developing
surface low. A severe risk may develop across parts of these
regions, mainly from late Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence
in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based storms is not
great enough to include 15% severe probabilities for now.

Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that another
large-scale upper trough will move across the central/eastern states
around the Day 6/Wednesday to Day 7/Thursday time frame. Some severe
risk may once again materialize across parts of the central Gulf
Coast states and perhaps the Carolinas as low-level moisture returns
northward across these areas. Regardless, there is far too much
uncertainty in the prospect for substantial boundary-layer
destabilization to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2021

 

[deltadog03]

View attachment 74192

Ya that’s a look that I remember old school MDT or a potential high risk look day

 

[Webberweather53]

CMC Wudge, get outa here View attachment 74129

That’s a great look right there, give all the low level SRH to me ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Couple of GFS soundings out of south central GA at 18z Thu

 

[deltadog03]

Couple of GFS soundings out of south central GA at 18z Thu

Dang. Add a little more lapse rate and cape it’s off to the races. Any euro soundings?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man get this out of here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wudge

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SER trending stronger means more warm sector

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Also with the second one, the SE ridge is trending stronger, this one has more a higher ceiling imo then the first one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

SER trending stronger means more warm sector View attachment 74229View attachment 74230

Why post this when u know cold rain CAD is going to strik a dagger into our heart

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Son of a bleep, meanwhile the GEFS looks more impressive for ice with the second system ?

 

[Shaggy]

If we dont get wintry I want drier with more severe chances and 70s. If we're gonna fail let's fail the right way.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Jump north with the warm sector on the euro

 

[Shaggy]

Jump north with the warm sector on the euro View attachment 74271View attachment 74272

Go big or go home. Bring us an epic warm nose or an epic wedge but just not 40 and rain F that!!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro says “what severe” for the second system, ----------------

 

[RollTide18]

Son of a bleep, meanwhile the GEFS looks more impressive for ice with the second system ?View attachment 74252View attachment 74251

Rename the title to the King Kong vs Godzilla Tornado Ice Storm Threat