Oh wow this is starting to hold some real promise it seems.So the v16 pulled a euro and shows crazy parameters for AL lol, but it shows much of the SE getting severe weather View attachment 74122View attachment 74123View attachment 74124
It’s was a matter of time tbh, all I took was the -NAO backing off and favorable tropical forcing for warmth (phase 7), one thing to watch tho it’s that SE Canada vortexSevere has legs now, and I'll bet we will be dealing with the possibilities more than once next week.
CMC showing wedge is interesting, @Webberweather53 ain’t the CMC one of the best CAD models in the 5-7 range?CMC Wudge, get outa here View attachment 74129
Ice is basically rain but but below freezing, it’s trash, it’s useless, sucks. severe weather is what I’m interested in, and a major part of my photography, especially when I go out west and chase it this spring, and in general it’s always been something I’m intoNo offense but how is this any different to wishing for an ice storm?
Can we get a surface temp trend too for the same time period?
Damn! Didn't see that coming
That’s a look I have not seen a while, finally things back to normal! Climo favored areas getting what’s normal . Charlotte cold rain .
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across parts of the
central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday.
Low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the Gulf
Coast states and the Carolinas ahead of a northeastward-developing
surface low. A severe risk may develop across parts of these
regions, mainly from late Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence
in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based storms is not
great enough to include 15% severe probabilities for now.
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that another
large-scale upper trough will move across the central/eastern states
around the Day 6/Wednesday to Day 7/Thursday time frame. Some severe
risk may once again materialize across parts of the central Gulf
Coast states and perhaps the Carolinas as low-level moisture returns
northward across these areas. Regardless, there is far too much
uncertainty in the prospect for substantial boundary-layer
destabilization to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.
..Gleason.. 02/12/2021
Ya that’s a look that I remember old school MDT or a potential high risk look day
That’s a great look right there, give all the low level SRH to me ?CMC Wudge, get outa here View attachment 74129
Dang. Add a little more lapse rate and cape it’s off to the races. Any euro soundings?Couple of GFS soundings out of south central GA at 18z Thu![]()
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Why post this when u know cold rain CAD is going to strik a dagger into our heartSER trending stronger means more warm sector View attachment 74229View attachment 74230
Jump north with the warm sector on the euro View attachment 74271View attachment 74272
Son of a bleep, meanwhile the GEFS looks more impressive for ice with the second system ?View attachment 74252View attachment 74251