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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
The entire country is in the freezer and we’re stuck inside some sort of gd heat bubble, Wedge wont be cold enough for sleet but you can bet your ass it will be cool enough to fk up a decent severe threat. So delete this thread bc rain is all we will get but keep the King Kong thread open just rename it the fkng “Mississippi snow map forum”
Euro has a decent amount of shear but temps/dps are yawn, at least for CAE points north
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like a good setup for coastal Georgia and southern SC. Elsewhere... cold rain
We’re a few ticks away with less confluence from getting a legitimate severe weather setup, that look at H5 is nasty but the question is, how much confluence will there be ? 
Anyone have some euro soundings for my area by chance with those parameters showing up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the Euro is showing the potential for elevated supercells down there. Gonna need the CAD to back off some to get sfc based storms and a tornado threat.
Can that weak confluence in SE Canada umm.... can it just --- off ??
Thanks y’all!
Woah nelly
Not really a -NAO either during this, no wonder this is popping upWoah nelly
Maybe multiple rounds of severe?
Ummm.... could this be the first legit severe weather setup of the season 
Shadow of the Apps
Member
Not in this time frame, but have quite a bit of Thunder rolling here in Rutherfordton right now.
Gefs says yes we’re going that direction 
We talked about the 2nd half of Feb having severe. Crazy how we've gotten here
Stormlover
Member
Euro is off 5-7 degrees on noon temps. Too warm. Not sure why the mets keep buying it if it starts that much off, it's not going to get it right.
Stormlover
Member
for huntsville late mon afternoon/early evening, gfs has .34 freezing rain in two hours with a temp of 26!
Wrong thread
This is the severe thread. Granted it has the same King Kong name
Pretty sure this is the severe thread
TY
I gotta say, that’s a legit look for severe weather, it honestly depends on that SE Canada vortex and how far south it is, the farther south, the less widespread it’ll be and more confined to SC/GA/AL as that SE Canada vortex pumps in coo stable air possibly 
Storm5
Member
Why do we need a server thread when it all falls under the winter storm thread.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
35 and rain with a rumble of thunder overhead, better then 33 and rain ?
See you soon
I want all the smoke 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Only difference between the composite and now it's earlier in the calendar year and the CAD wedges are less buoyant/harder to move out of the way. I hope it happens at least down my way but this is a razor thin margin between severe, cold rain CAD, & ice.
ICON lifting the warm front further north slowly and slowly each run for that second system 
GSP mentioned this system in latest discussion
Oh wow they did 
Sooo close 
Oh my, a deep H5 S/W trough nearly neutrally tilted 
GFS doesn’t show much cape but imo if this was to stick around into NAM time it would probably be HSLC low topped stuff, that’s a impressive look at H5 
