Wintry February 6th-7th

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

From watching these models over the years. The NW trend most likely isn’t done yet. Mountains and Virginia event most likely

Over the years of watching models, I've concluded the the feared "NW trend" many times is just the models settling into climo favored areas with the frozen precip, and that's exactly what is happening here. Precip field is still expansive on the NAM, but the frozen precip will be a mountain event. I don't see that changing much in the coming days.

 

[LukeBarrette]

ICON isn't running??

 

[Ollie Williams]

ICON isn't running??

30 minutes late.

 

[Chattownsnow]

View attachment 71046

I approve

 

[RBR71]

GFS a little colder, looking like a stupid crush job northern half of NC

 

[RBR71]

Wake Co special...

 

[Rain Cold]

Wake Co special...

View attachment 71083

I like it, but I just don't see it happening. GFS is going to be too cold. I expect the NAM will end up being more accurate with ptypes. We're close to 3 days out. There's no way it won't continue to trend NW.

 

[BufordWX]

Apparently the GFS has trended towards giving me a shot at something on Saturday as this system passes by. Kinda unexpected. Lol

 

[RBR71]

v16..... ew

 

[Myfrotho704_]

i think if there’s one thing that could maybe work out in this setup, it’s front end stuff

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

V16 has always seen it first along with our last storm it was the first to see it and it was the most consistent in its solution which ended up happening! .. I will not put the v16 in a bad model category .. maybe it’s got the upper hand this winter .. I’ll throw a quarter of my chips in

 

[FallsLake]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

It better aligns with the NAM. I would say this is the favored look as of right now.

 

[superjames1992]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

Ticked a little south along with the old GFS from 06z, I believe. Some hope.. It’s been the most consistent with this system for the last 24 hours or so.

EDIT: Looking at the clown, maybe not.

 

[RBR71]

It better aligns with the NAM. I would say this is the favored look as of right now.

Yep bad sign, congrats Tn, Mountains and Va

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like it’s locking on

 

[deltadog03]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

 

[Chandler]

Looks like it’s locking on View attachment 71090

Went from middle ga to middle va in a snap of the finger

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

NE GA doesn’t look terrible right now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Went from middle ga to middle va in a snap of the finger

As of now, it’s 85 as the cutoff.... shocker

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

I agree the airmass aloft pre event is pretty cold, 850s before the event are around 0 to -1C, with pretty good room to dynamically cool

 

[CaryWx]

v16 noticeably moving NW with every run. Don't think this is done yet. Amping for sure though with totals.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jessy89]

Maybe the NAM is over amping it. And will back off some. I know the NAM timing of the onset of the precip is also earlier then GFS


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[Myfrotho704_]

I - 8 5

 

[Chandler]

Looks to be a good hit for the mountains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks to be a good hit for the mountainsView attachment 71098

Why can’t we get a ens 29 for once ?

 

[Flotown]

not gonna lie getting a little excited about friday night and sat here in far n bama

 

[Chattownsnow]

Man what an absurd NW trend. We haven’t really seen that this winter, but I’d rather it happen on something like this than the bigger potential coming up.

12z gfs says hold my beer.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Looks to be a good hit for the mountainsView attachment 71098

Still getting those weird lollipops around north metro ATL on a number of members. ?

 

[Storm5]

I - 8 5 View attachment 71096

Guess I’m headed to my in-laws at the state line


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[LovingGulfLows]

Still getting those weird lollipops around north metro ATL on a number of members. ?

850s/925s at the onset of the storm are below freezing or near freezing for the northern 3rd of the state. Could be some members are a bit colder aloft and starting out as snow in some places if theres pockets of colder air aloft.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UKMET, lol it’s so sensitive on what’s rain and what’s snow, this is clearly a snow sounding yet it shows rain

 

[LukeBarrette]

UKMET, lol it’s so sensitive on what’s rain and what’s snow, this is clearly a snow sounding yet it shows rain View attachment 71131View attachment 71132View attachment 71133View attachment 71134

It loves to use sfc temps as a rain/snow line. 33 its rain, 32 is snow. When in reality with this setup, NC can snow with 34-35 when under good 850s.

 

[superjames1992]

Big jump north on the 12z UKMET towards the GFS. It’ll be interesting to see if the GGEM and Euro fold.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Big jump north on the 12z UKMET towards the GFS. It’ll be interesting to see if the GGEM and Euro fold.

GGEM was in the process of folding. It took a big NW jump as well.

 

[Nomanslandva]

I remember a storm several years ago that had an epic NW trend all within the NAMs timeframe. I went from dry to rain so I could see it continuing on this one. The difference my be that this one was modeled as farther NW days ago so it may just returning to where it was then?

 

[malak05]

Hey the 15z RAP at the end of it's run is close for I-20 north in GA

 

[Storm5]

Big jump north on the 12z UKMET towards the GFS. It’ll be interesting to see if the GGEM and Euro fold.

Lol it’s one run what are folding to?


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[superjames1992]

Lol it’s one run what are folding to?


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It was showing a very suppressed solution with rain mostly staying offshore, but now it’s showing snow in SW VA. Pretty big jump.

 

[Storm5]

It was showing a very suppressed solution with rain mostly staying offshore, but now it’s showing snow in SW VA. Pretty big jump.

It’s one run . What does it matter . We need to a trend and we need multiple cycles for that


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