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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Just for the record I'm still a fan of the pattern. I'm not thrilled by today's trends and would like the boundary a little south. But that's certainly doable. I'm not sure the real Arctic air is coming and I for one like that. Single digits is as bad as 70 degrees here if you're trying to snow. Move the boundary south with the Arctic air close enough to be tapped is good with me.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
He works at accu lol and based his forecast off the euro weeklies I’m pretty sure (which was the point).... still a clown
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Lol so it was you. Couldn't remember who it was lol. Some Mets deserve to be called clowns if they have a history of hyping and being wrong. But I don't know enough about that particular met to say.
 
Shawn said:
Why do you guys want the arctic to visit so far South? It's a recipe for cold and dry.
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That is a fair point. I think we’ve dealt with so many marginal temperature setups lately that it would be nice to have a system without above freezing BL temps and all that. At the same time, we are unlikely to get a big storm with a major Arctic outbreak.

However, I find Arctic outbreaks interesting in and of themselves, though I’d prefer to have snow.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Lol so it was you. Couldn't remember who it was lol. Some Mets deserve to be called clowns if they have a history of hyping and being wrong. But I don't know enough about that particular met to say.
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I was sold on that really cold air lol, once brad was especially, and I don’t either, but I heard that forecast was based off the euro weeklies/MJO
 
superjames1992 said:
That is a fair point. I think we’ve dealt with so many marginal temperature setups lately that it would be nice to have a system without above freezing BL temps and all that. At the same time, we are unlikely to get a big storm with a major Arctic outbreak.

However, I find Arctic outbreaks interesting in and of themselves, though I’d prefer to have snow.
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My electric bill hates arctic outbreaks, hah. And my toes.
 
superjames1992 said:
That is a fair point. I think we’ve dealt with so many marginal temperature setups lately that it would be nice to have a system without above freezing BL temps and all that. At the same time, we are unlikely to get a big storm with a major Arctic outbreak.

However, I find Arctic outbreaks interesting in and of themselves, though I’d prefer to have snow.
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At the same time it would be nice to get that cold air for areas down south (I-20) to score, with the look now I-85/I-40 would do well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
At the same time it would be nice to get that cold air for areas down south (I-20) to score, with the look now I-85/I-40 would do well
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With the cold air not entrenched, and close by, I'll take my chances with the current eps, even here, than I would for Miami to be 28F. Phase here we come, please.
 
Shawn said:
Why do you guys want the arctic to visit so far South? It's a recipe for cold and dry.
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@SD told me it would be historic ! Idk, some people like the extreme cold. Not me though . In an ideal world Raleigh would range from 10-100 at most in a typical year . Not a fan of single digits and less .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I was sold on that really cold air lol, once brad was especially, and I don’t either, but I heard that forecast was based off the euro weeklies/MJO
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Yeah Brad P biting says a lot. And it very well may happen. If it's snow we seek though give me something between what was modeled yesterday and what's modeled now and I'll roll the dice. Good thing is a compromise between the two extremes usually is the way to go and would be good for us. That is as long as we stop the bad trends from here on out.
 
Shawn said:
Why do you guys want the arctic to visit so far South? It's a recipe for cold and dry.
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The way I look at it, it's not going to snow anyway...might as well have some really cold temps for our troubles! Haha

Seriously though, we know the arctic push will either deflect to the plains or not be nearly as strong when it arrives. So I don't mind it showing up super dry and bitterly cold 10 days out. My hope is to at least actually have some bonafide arctic air nearby to be tapped. Because for whatever reason, these marginal situations don't seem to work around my area anymore.
 
If I am reading charts right, the GFS v16 is actually doing quite well in regards to temperatures and 500mb versus the OP GFS and actually may be showing signs of winning out over the OP Euro right now. Within hour 120, though.

Lets hug the v16!
 
Shawn said:
If I am reading charts right, the GFS v16 is actually doing quite well in regards to temperatures and 500mb versus the OP GFS and actually may be showing signs of winning out over the OP Euro right now. Within hour 120, though.

Lets hug the v16!
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Wow, euro is getting old. Gfs is rising ! Icon is rising!
 
Lickwx said:
Wow, euro is getting old. Gfs is rising ! Icon is rising!
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Last documentation I read about the ICON is it uses ECMWF initialization data.. not sure by now. Another thing I read was that if the older generations of the GFS were given the Euro's initilization data, it would produce more accurate forecasts than the Euro, maybe for the continental USA. Which is interesting because that was before the upgrades and all, but if that is the case, maybe we really need to work on our network of weather data to feed it. As models get higher resolution, one small error can compound exponentially and wreck the entire forecast.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Funny how the 12z GFS shows a decent winter storm and people are cliff diving.
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I don’t know what all the complaining is about. The gfs starting on Sunday has this area getting upper 20s and lower 30s for highs for 8 straight days. Are the 12-15 degree highs it was showing earlier still there? No, but it beats the heck out of what the last 3 or 4 February’s have been. A lot times a storm will show up within the 4-5 day range so just because it doesn’t show snow in your backyard now does’t mean it won’t show some in a day or two.
 
Is there a 12 step group for gossipers? I don't need it but I know someone that does...:cool:
 
and it's not that the storm really "shows up" more than models suck past day 5. i bet a lot of members have had busted forecasts many times this season, even within 12 hours of leadtime.. temps/rain/etc. It seems especially bad this year around here.
 
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