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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I despise these front end thumps that go to cold rain and turn what little frozen we get to slush. Ugh. Unless we can keep it all frozen, what a waste of a storm.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
What I see is we’re loosing a severe pattern and headed towards a CAD pattern... again, what about you ?
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Yeah, that -NAO just doesn’t want to let go. It’s been said many times over the last several weeks that as long as it’s there we’re not gonna torch. If we’re gonna have a CAD pattern, it would be nice to take advantage of it and get one good major winter storm for the Carolinas and northern GA out of it.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, that -NAO just doesn’t want to let go. It’s been said many times over the last several weeks that as long as it’s there we’re not gonna torch. If we’re gonna have a CAD pattern, it would be nice to take advantage of it and get one good major winter storm for the Carolinas and northern GA out of it.
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We are close to doing that this upcoming weekend. If we can get dews into the high single digits low teens we might be able insitu our way to a decent system
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, that -NAO just doesn’t want to let go. It’s been said many times over the last several weeks that as long as it’s there we’re not gonna torch. If we’re gonna have a CAD pattern, it would be nice to take advantage of it and get one good major winter storm for the Carolinas and northern GA out of it.
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This is darn near the only winter in recent memory that I can recall with a -NAO from nearly beginning to end. You would think that we would have snowfall after snowfall with that. Just goes to show that there are other variables in play. EPO, WPO, PNA, MJO. Not to mention that when you look across the contiguous United States or the whole North American continent in general, the only place that has had great snowfall this year are the Sierra Nevada’s, the Klamath, and Cascade ranges plus up by the NW Passage in far northern Canada.
 
tramadoc said:
This is darn near the only winter in recent memory that I can recall with a -NAO from nearly beginning to end. You would think that we would have snowfall after snowfall with that. Just goes to show that there are other variables in play. EPO, WPO, PNA, MJO. Not to mention that when you look across the contiguous United States or the whole North American continent in general, the only place that has had great snowfall this year are the Sierra Nevada’s, the Klamath, and Cascade ranges plus up by the NW Passage in far northern Canada.
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Perhaps if the -NAO continues into Spring it could limit severe potential?
 
If we continue to have a -NAO into most of February and still don't get a good winter storm in the Triangle area of NC, that's like a 1 seed getting beat by a 16 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. Having it for most of January and not having anything to show for it is already like when App State beat Michigan in football.
 
tramadoc said:
This is darn near the only winter in recent memory that I can recall with a -NAO from nearly beginning to end. You would think that we would have snowfall after snowfall with that. Just goes to show that there are other variables in play. EPO, WPO, PNA, MJO. Not to mention that when you look across the contiguous United States or the whole North American continent in general, the only place that has had great snowfall this year are the Sierra Nevada’s, the Klamath, and Cascade ranges plus up by the NW Passage in far northern Canada.
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This is the most consistent -NAO we’ve seen since 2010-2011. Honestly the lack of winter storms to this point is a bit surprising considering that, but obviously to go along with the pattern, you got to have luck on your side as well and we’ve just not had that in the Carolinas so far. Most LaNinas going into February, I would say we’re probably about out of time, but this LaNina has been different thus far with that -NAO and I’ll take my chances that we could time something right in the next few weeks as long as it’s there. Keep in mind the raging -NAO of 2009-2010 saw most areas shut out from I-85 south and east until the last weekend in January, then those same areas had multiple storms through the end of February.
 
-NAOs are great but they're not guaranteed greatness either. You normally have to have a couple other things go right to help you out. Also the elephant in the room that we aren't allowed to talk about (climate change) likely has made things much more difficult to get winter storms here in the southeast. I'd hedge my bets that say 8/10 times we will likely have to have the pacific and atlantic on our side to be able to get winter storms down here for the foreseeable future. You may luck out and have just a -NAO and score but it's not like it used to be in the past anymore.
 
SD said:
Source region hasn't really been that cold. Most cold has been on the other side of the world. No cross polar flow to tap that cold. Weve been left with basically modified Canadian airmasses for weeks.
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Do you think we will be able to get any significant cold air in February, esp with the lag effect from last months SSW, which normally is 30+ days? We haven't been cold at all really. Imo, it will be an incredibly bad break if we dont, considering we have had a -nao/ao more often than in many years.
 
Chazwin said:
This is the most consistent -NAO we’ve seen since 2010-2011. Honestly the lack of winter storms to this point is a bit surprising considering that, but obviously to go along with the pattern, you got to have luck on your side as well and we’ve just not had that in the Carolinas so far. Most LaNinas going into February, I would say we’re probably about out of time, but this LaNina has been different thus far with that -NAO and I’ll take my chances that we could time something right in the next few weeks as long as it’s there. Keep in mind the raging -NAO of 2009-2010 saw most areas shut out from I-85 south and east until the last weekend in January, then those same areas had multiple storms through the end of February.
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Yeah in Dec we flooded N America with mild Pac air. January when we popped the PNA we still had the effects of that with no cold available in source regions. Canada is colder now so if we pop a PNA in Feb things may turn around. That NAO is why I refuse to give up this year.
 
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