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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
@KyloG or anyone else have the 06z eps, looks like it might have been a tick better (I went with the wrong model subscription ?)
Thor
Member
Look at the 3 run trend up for the MA with today's event....anything can happen.
Reality says we'll probably get very little snow. But I'm hoping (on the high end) for something that resembles the storm we had last year.
Well the good news is we have the Euro on our side (kind of), the bad news is the Euro is colder because it's weaker and less qpf.... I don't see how we get both an amped system with more qpf and cold air.
12z 12k nam wasn't pretty
Best model going
ICON basically weak sauce too, some light sn up this way but about it..... however, not a bad track
12z RDPS, with surface temps below freezing for NE Piedmont into northern coastal plain:
Worth noting the RDPS has a huge cold bias and looked good for the storm in early jan
For example
For example
snowlover91
Member
Yeah would love for it to be correct but NAM is better on thermals usually. Once we get in range of 3km NAM, if it shows similar then we might have something.
One thing of note with the RDPS and it's depiction this time, it was also slower then the NAM allowing time for more caa to filter in
GFS still the most amped up system and the warmest
Is the v16 cold biased ? 
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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WPC says Pennsylvania
Oh wow 
Yeah that would be the best of both worlds, it's amped but far enough SE to cut down on waa, real curious to see what the Euro shows. Feel like a weaker system with some light snow north of 40 best bet
But this would be nice
Downeastnc
Member
Come to papa.......I prefer my storms to evolve like this....I never want the models showing me getting a good snow 4-5 days out, I would rather they come around in the last 24-36 hrs as the systems are better sampled.....that said this is the CMC sooooooooo grain of salt.
Downeastnc
Member
Local P&C giving hope as well....those temps though
Wednesday Night
Rain before 3am, then rain and snow. Low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Snow before 7am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Rain before 3am, then rain and snow. Low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Snow before 7am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Hold on, this here was the 0z ukie so there was definitive improvement with the 12z.
SouthSideYankee
Member
For what it's worth, last night's cfs model had snow shifting into central and eastern NC, too.
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snowlover91
Member
I haven't tracked it much this winter, but I remember on several systems the GFS showed as snow threats the v16 was warmer and ended up being closer to what transpired. This will be a good test for it since GFS is warmer and it is colder, closer to the CMC/RGEM suite.
Still south, still weak, still very light "event"
Euro is honestly close to involving more people 
Solid 
It was an improvement over the 0z run, I'll take it. So GFS v16, GEM, RDPS, Ukmet (to an extent) and the Euro with a light wintry event. GFS and NAM not so much
Post here I will work on getting the old thread merged this evening
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Canadian and the new GFS were really good for VA and NC. Euro has improved for NC, too. Might not see much or any accumulation, but folks in NC could at least see some snow falling.
Shaggy
Member
Any individual members have anything like the cmc with 6 inch markers?
That’s solid for a dusting to an inch from Raleigh to Norfolk
