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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

18z gefs is on board . Not sure it means much at this point
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Not saying I agree with the NAM, but the north path is clearly there on both NAM and to an extent the GFS. This one may get tricky. Both GFS and NAM show a sprawling anticyclone over the Gulf at 200mb and with the trough digging in over the central US, outflow could be significant.
 
Arcc said:
Not saying I agree with the NAM, but the north path is clearly there on both NAM and to an extent the GFS. This one may get tricky. Both GFS and NAM show a sprawling anticyclone over the Gulf at 200mb and with the trough digging in over the central US, outflow could be significant.
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That could be super interesting to see if it actually happens
 
Arcc said:
Not saying I agree with the NAM, but the north path is clearly there on both NAM and to an extent the GFS. This one may get tricky. Both GFS and NAM show a sprawling anticyclone over the Gulf at 200mb and with the trough digging in over the central US, outflow could be significant.
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What could this mean for us here in Charleston SC??
 
UKMET Into Galveston, CMC Into Corpus Christi, both significant hurricanes

GFS in the middle Matagorda Bay
 
A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and
surface observations indicate that the system has not become
better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected
before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this
morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or
Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Lol!! Euro has a landfall in Texas then back out in the water to make second landfall in La.
 
6z suits looks little bit more north. Especially Nam
Arcc said:
The weakness is still there for this to trend more eastward. It depends on the strength of a shortwave diving in over the upper Midwest.
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Seems like it would feel the trough sooner and cut little more east.
 
accu35 said:
6z suits looks little bit more north. Especially Nam
Seems like it would feel the trough sooner and cut little more east.
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Depends if the shortwave diving in over the Midwest trends stronger, you will see a lot more north and west than east. If both trend weaker, the ridge will build over top and send it to Mexico.

And when I said farther east, I meant LA. I think east if there, baring some big change is safe from a direct hit. Other issues may affect farther eastward.
 
I would think how far north could also be dependent on how far north it develops once comes off the Yucatan... it's still elongated at present and kind of sloppy but has some deep convection off northern tip of the YP. Most models have something cooking by tonight or in the morning and then should have a much better handle on track (maybe)
 
ForsythSnow said:
That doesn't sound too good. The NAVGEM at 12Z has a landfalling TS, but follows the GFS's path. I think this trend is going to be towards Texas or at furthest Louisiana. Wouldn't this mean a stronger storm as well?
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It probably will, this may get far enough to the north and east to where time over water won't be as much of a big deal so much as dry air off the adjacent continent, which has plagued many TCs the past several years...

Seeing some early indications that Harvey's center may be trying to form on the northernmost portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and/or just offshore, surface observations and 24 hr pressure falls support this notion and if this is where the center forms, NWP guidance will continue to shift the long term track further north & east towards Louisiana because this is well to the north of where most models are currently initializing Harvey...
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preschange_watl_latest.png
 
Forgive me for not paying attention to the tropics but i notice the title says " tropical storm harvey" and i dont see any tropical storms named harvey right now . Is it the remnants of what used to be Harvey?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It probably will, this may get far enough to the north and east to where time over water won't be as much of a big deal so much as dry air off the adjacent continent, which has plagued many TCs the past several years...

Seeing some early indications that Harvey's center may be trying to form on the northernmost portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and/or just offshore, surface observations and 24 hr pressure falls support this notion and if this is where the center forms, NWP guidance will continue to shift the long term track further north & east towards Louisiana because this is well to the north of where most models are currently initializing Harvey...
View attachment 885
View attachment 886
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Always interesting to see the dynamics associated with the Yucatan. Low level circulations always go haywire around it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It probably will, this may get far enough to the north and east to where time over water won't be as much of a big deal so much as dry air off the adjacent continent, which has plagued many TCs the past several years...

Seeing some early indications that Harvey's center may be trying to form on the northernmost portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and/or just offshore, surface observations and 24 hr pressure falls support this notion and if this is where the center forms, NWP guidance will continue to shift the long term track further north & east towards Louisiana because this is well to the north of where most models are currently initializing Harvey...
View attachment 885
View attachment 886
Click to expand...
I hinted at this in my post above, I'm just a metwannabe but c'mon Webb give me some cred for at least touching on that.... Lol! I need positive affirmations :D Just kidding man... good analysis as always!
 
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