• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Very robust convection tonight.

rb_lalo-animatedharvey.gif
 
Arcc said:
Not really, the satellite doesn't lie. Harvey looks like more of an open wave in a region where if it does become so, it's toast for days.
Click to expand...

Satellite doesn't suggest that. Definitely more than an open wave, and the shear is plenty favorable for it to maintain, or even strengthen itself.
 
Taylor said:
Satellite doesn't suggest that. Definitely more than an open wave, and the shear is plenty favorable for it to maintain, or even strengthen itself.
Click to expand...

No it isnt, the actual LLC is well to the east of the strong convection which looks to be mainly riding on the old wave axis. Harvey is very disorganized at this point. You add in the northerly shear and the fast flow and really the best case for the storm is to maintain a consistent low level circulation.
 
Although a recent ASCAT pass still showed 35 knot winds in the northern semi circle of Harvey's circulation it appears to opening up into a tropical wave axis as the surface wind field and convection appears to be becoming much broader and meridionally elongated...
rgb-animated.gif
 
Yeah somehow this still has a center but it's very weak, fragile, and unstable, and appears to be in the process of being consumed by the larger scale wave axis as indicated by the southerly winds within half of a degree of it...
recon_AF302-0309A-HARVEY.png
 
No way this thing survives much longer in its current state

really starting to wonder if it even comes back down the road
 
Last edited:
...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas.
 
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
 
I haven’t looked but so the global sod anything with this again? For the _____ time.
 
Looks like guidance is more west, even SW today! So much for my drought buster! :(
 
Mac,
You thought Harvey's remnants had a chance to turn sharply enough to get back into GA/SC?
 
Gefs likes the idea of it going into south Texas then taking moisture into the southeast
7f613a509813c8d7f6fde852af522e5c.png

c6e1232c2b1ed4970e7c6567023d619c.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Wow this got interesting quick lol

DFW only needs 2.96" of rain by August 31st for wettest summer ever and well we've had no problem overperforming on rain this summer
 
Lol 18z GFS spits out a fairly similar solution to the Euro... Probably not happening but damn remnants of a landfalling cane (i.e. lots of low level wind shear) + cold air damming, that's a good recipe for tornadoes around here in the summer...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol 18z GFS spits out a fairly similar solution to the Euro... Probably not happening but damn remnants of a landfalling cane (i.e. lots of low level wind shear) + cold air damming, that's a good recipe for tornadoes around here in the summer...
Click to expand...
That doesn't sound too good. The NAVGEM at 12Z has a landfalling TS, but follows the GFS's path. I think this trend is going to be towards Texas or at furthest Louisiana. Wouldn't this mean a stronger storm as well?
 
Who's has the EPS? My wxbell subscription isn't set to start till September but hell at this rate I'm gonna have to fire it up early


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top