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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Lickwx said:
I always loved SW Va , much of that area seems to be a region time has forgotten . Outside of Roanoke !
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Right now while hugging Canada and German models, I am getting fringed by Euro and American stuff. Roanoke Co is still a good place to raise kids but I bought a little property in Craig county for eventual retirement. One county NW should help with the warm nose we seem to be good at here in the valley. another 1000 feet in elevation will not hurt either ?
 
Tonight and tomorrow will be a telling day for the Nam Hrrrr and other short range that’s more aggressive then gfs


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Here's the Snow Depth chart. There would have been more east of the mountains except there was very little precip:
snod.us_ma.png

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I wonder if timing of this will affect snow chances for you folk east o' the mountains. (for the better). This thing is coming in the dead of the afternoon in East Tenn. In marginal events that always matters here in Chattanooga. That sorta surprise snow we had back in Feb 2020 came in the early morning. Had that puppy waited six hours, I'm sure it would have been mostly rain, with little accum.
 
SETNwx said:
I wonder if timing of this will affect snow chances for you folk east o' the mountains. (for the better). This thing is coming in the dead of the afternoon in East Tenn. In marginal events that always matters here in Chattanooga. That sorta surprise snow we had back in Feb 2020 came in the early morning. Had that puppy waited six hours, I'm sure it would have been mostly rain, with little accum.
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Time of day/night will make some difference but it's not quite as impactful in January as it would be in February, and even less so with an upper low. Initial onset looks to be late afternoon/early evening, but heaviest precip in our area should be between midnight and sunrise which helps. I think the key for us will be precip rates - anything light is likely rain, but heavier precip will tend to be snow, and we'll probably flip back and forth a few times as the bands move through. A sloppy snow for sure lol if this pans out

edit: Yep, 2/8/2020 was literally perfect timing - all rain til about 40 miles west, and died a rainy death 100 miles to the east. timing a few hours either side and we would had just another cold rain event with a few flakes mixed in
 
SD said:
Dry slot FTL

View attachment 63566
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When the warm advection starts to really crank and the warm nose advances NW towards VA, you’re gonna see some subsidence drying on the warm (SE) side of the 0C max column temp line in much of NC during the heart of the event and places along and just north of that boundary being enhanced by latent heat of melting are gonna get smoked. If your model sucks at picking up WAA, you get more than just a warming trend. It also dries out
 
The crush Job will be eastern Ashe,Avery,Watauga,Alleghaney counties NC. Jefferson to sparta is my pic for an official 12 by a wx spotter. Like Allans map. Also think mby gets a good dose of sleet. Have to wait till tommorow really get into all the layers. But any white ground above frost is a win
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yeah big shift south. Webber better stay out of VA!
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In a setup like this odds are the heaviest axis of snow is gonna end up 100+ miles north of that even if we don’t change anything synoptically. The coarse gridded ensemble members are even worse than the op models at sniffing out WAA. When you couple that with the orographic and isentropic lift, I seriously doubt the heaviest snow will remain squarely in NC.
 
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