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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

Storm5 said:
For areas to the west we don’t want this . We need more tilt .....
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I would love for this to go violently negative at that point. Probably would be bad news for us in central NC but would be an awesome snowstorm for most.
 
Storm5 said:
12z gfs is a nice run if you’re in the Carolinas looking for a late blooming coastal . No good for areas to the west


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If it tilts sooner everyone wins better. Even the Carolinas want this to tilt sooner since they end up with more widespread snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is almost exactly where you wanna see a coastal low on the GEFS 5-6+ days out. 12z run was also colder.

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The problem is the relative lack of cold air at 2 meters on the 12Z GFS suite vs what would normally be seen with far SE etc low track, h5 and 850s like this. How much of that is real and how much is that due to a warm bias?
 
Sitting here watching the weather channel and they were showing the new updated model of the 12z gfs and they saying it’s starting to cave to the euro with lighter amounts with no snow but maybe only snow for North Carolina with the second system
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is almost exactly where you wanna see a coastal low on the GEFS 5-6+ days out. 12z run was also colder.

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Not to be “that guy” but what would it take to get more of SC in the game with this? Just a deeper push of cold air to squash the warm nose? Such a great track...
 
GaWx said:
The problem is the relative lack of cold air at 2 meters on the 12Z GFS suite vs what would normally be seen with far SE etc low track, h5 and 850s like this. How much of that is real and how much is that due to a warm bias?
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There's probably still some bias present and I'd imagine the cold source at least in GA & the Carolinas will be better than modeled w/ the fresh snow cover that will put down in the mountains & VA a few days prior. With heavier precipitation and stronger advection in the midst of cold conveyor belt banding on the NW side of the sfc low, the temps will look a lot less marginal. Imo, there will be significantly more cold air to work w/ than the setup later this week.
 
Robert West said:
Not to be “that guy” but what would it take to get more of SC in the game with this? Just a deeper push of cold air to squash the warm nose? Such a great track...
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Yeah a little more cold air than forecast (which isn't hard to come by for the GEFS lately) & heavier precipitation. To make that happen, we need the overall s/w to tilt negative sooner and dig more to ramp up the coastal low more quickly to increase the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. Too much of this and we could have warm nose issues
 
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