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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

DarkKnight said:
We have approval to start the thread back up for the Thursday/Friday time frame. The GFS is getting some support for this from the euro now.. Post Away..
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The mountains will see a good snow from this. Outside the mountains it looks like a novelty event flurries but North Georgia could certainly see a dusting to a inch. Maybe north Alabama to those areas should be excited.


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Jessy89 said:
The mountains will see a good snow from this. Outside the mountains it looks like a novelty event flurries but North Georgia could certainly see a dusting to a inch. Maybe north Alabama to those areas should be excited.


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Click to expand...
Little premature for that given the potential of the 12z Euro run.
 
Certainly interested in how the 0z euro handles the energy at the base of the trough. Hopefully the 18z gfs can't start to trend that way, I don't think the icon will go out far enough
 
12z Euro got FFC’s attention, especially the evolution of the base of the trough that @SD has been noting:


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

The main issue continues to be the possibility of wrap around moisture or short wave crossing the southern Appalachians Thursday night into early Friday. The ECMWF now shows a closed low for the TN Valley area during that time...with the GFS showing a much weaker system. However...depth of the main trough would point to some cold air stratus across much of north GA and the possibility of some frozen precipitation. Have continued with the overall pattern of low pops for north GA...generally north of Atlanta...with light mixed precipitation ending as light snow on Friday morning. We will continue to monitor the progression of this system as it approaches and models come into better agreement.
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Nice increase on the eps from like 8 at 00z to this . Light yes , but I’ll take a flurry or two
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Holding out hope here. The fact that it's not marginal cold means a ton for snow potential here. We score with anafrontal, rain to heavy snow with cold frontal passage used to be somewhat common on this side of the Apps. It had been absent for a while with cold seemingly always chasing moisture but we've had two anafrontal events in the last 13 months now. Both those were much earlier too, with less cold than what's coming with this one.

So not bad at all from Middle Tennessee to the Mountains and some support for northern Alabama and northern Georgia too.
 
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