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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

For some reason this run was worse for areas west but better for areas East of the mountains, some of the members develop a surface wave, then allows a backend thump of snow for areas East, slightly different then straight up anafrontal fashion, and some members now look like the euro/EPS0281211B-FC22-48E6-BC0D-2F596AE9A5C0.png462B236D-81CC-4CA4-BD63-FA69004128BC.png
 
Stephenb888 said:
What would we have to see (or change) from the models to get a decent snow out of this system in upstate sc?
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Only way we score is if we can develop a surface low and get backend snow. If that happens it would likely be heavy. It’s hard enough for areas west of the apps to score on frontal passages with cold chasing moisture but it’s almost impossible for the upstate. The 12/27-12/28 timeframe would be our chance at a winter storm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For some reason this run was worse for areas west but better for areas East of the mountains, some of the members develop a surface wave, then allows a backend thump of snow for areas East, slightly different then straight up anafrontal fashion, and some members now look like the euro/EPSView attachment 58867View attachment 58866
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Shocker!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Why is the gefs so bullish with a anafrontal solution tho lol, it’s sus View attachment 58861
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Lol. Some of those ensembles are just downright laughable. I mean, I guess it's possible, but unlikely. I am just surprised at the increase east of the apps though. That would legit be a Christmas Miracle. Just goes to show how many moving parts there are to this system and how one missing piece could make or break anyone on this board. This is far from over. Still pessimistic, but it's fun eye candy! (It sure as hell beats tornadoes on Christmas, that we all can agree on)!
 
ryan1234 said:
Lol. Some of those ensembles are just downright laughable. I mean, I guess it's possible but unlikely. I am just surprised at the increase east of the apps though. That would legit be a Christmas Miracle. Just goes to show how many moving parts there are to this system and how one missing piece could make or break anyone on this board. This is far from over. Still pessimistic, but it's fun eye candy!
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Here’s the answer, some members still go with a late sfc low developing, and have more of a “backend” snow event vs a more pure anafrontal, this scenario was going away but kinda came back 40AD6CED-780F-46A4-A452-F467CAA4C4BD.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Here’s the answer, some members still go with a late sfc low developing, and have more of a “backend” snow event vs a more pure anafrontal, this scenario was going away but kinda came back View attachment 58869
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I was about to inquire and ask you if modeling is trying to develop a sfc low. Anyone have any historical data that lines up with modeling? I don't recall this being a common occurrence.
 
ryan1234 said:
I was about to inquire and ask you if modeling is trying to develop a sfc low. Anyone have any historical data that lines up with modeling? I don't recall this being a common occurrence.
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Yeah I’ve seen setups delayed where another wave develops along a front to our SW/W, but don’t really recall it happening next to us and giving us snow in that fashion
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah I’ve seen setups delayed where another wave develops along a front to our SW/W, but don’t really recall it happening next to us and giving us snow in that fashion
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I mean it is 2020 so we can expect the unexpected. I will say, I think some of may be able to squeeze out a snow shower/flurry though. I still stand by my original thoughts that this storm isn't going to amount to anything that I would call a "big dog" unless you're in the mountains. Now farther north, that's a different story. Modeling has been pretty consistent with giving the goods to WV, PA, and eastern OH.
 
ryan1234 said:
I mean it is 2020 so we can expect the unexpected. I will say, I think some of may be able to squeeze out a snow shower/flurry though. I still stand by my original thoughts that this storm isn't going to amount to anything that I would call a "big dog" unless you're in the mountains. Now farther north, that's a different story. Modeling has been pretty consistent with giving the goods to WV, PA, and eastern OH.
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Are you speaking of NC in particular or the SE in general? Just curious.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Are you speaking of NC in particular or the SE in general? Just curious.
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The entire SE. I've been burned wayyy too many times in both GA and Carolina's by setups like this. Maybe eastern TN has a better shot for accumulating snowfall. However, if we can get that sfc low that @Myfrotho704_ was referring to, it could change. I don't think I have ever seen or witnessed a setup that included both svr weather and winter wx within 24 hours.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I like the further more consolidation towards the base , now we need to work on the tilt and getting something closed off further south more separated from the N/S, I’d say overall it’s better View attachment 58902
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I’d argue it’s worse, I wouldn’t worry about base consolidation because precip isn’t an issue. The tilt has been trending much worse, which is the most important part. It should look like the letter V, unless we can get it to cut off.
 
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