RAH going with the euro. It also shows in the grid forecast for my area where they took any mention of snow out.
Thursday onward: The next weather system to impact central
NC will
develop over the Plains on Wednesday as a
trough deepens over the
middle of the
CONUS, extending south into TX/LA by Wednesday night
with the parent low still over the northwest Great Lakes/south-
central Canada. A cold
front will extend from the
deepening surface
low over the western Great lakes, southwest through the Arklatex on
Wednesday, strengthening as it progresses east Wednesday night.
There are still timing differences between the medium-range models,
but have trended toward the slower ECMWF solution, as the GFS has a
tendency to be too quick. This solution brings rain into the area by
Christmas Eve morning, with the the
front over the Appalachians
Thursday night, progressing through the area on Christmas Day. The
cold air should chase the precipitation, thus do not expect any
wintry precipitation over central
NC with the pre-frontal
convection. The question will be if there is enough wrap-around
moisture as the upper
trough swings through late Friday, though
surface temps should stay above freezing through sunset Friday. As
the
trough lifts away and
front shift farther east, cool high
pressure will again build into the area from the southwest for
Saturday. Expect a wet Christmas Eve, though amounts are yet TBD.
Temperatures are expected to moderate ahead of the
front mid-week,
with much cooler air expected to filter in by the weekend.
