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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

RAH going with the euro. It also shows in the grid forecast for my area where they took any mention of snow out. :(

Thursday onward: The next weather system to impact central NC will
develop over the Plains on Wednesday as a trough deepens over the
middle of the CONUS, extending south into TX/LA by Wednesday night
with the parent low still over the northwest Great Lakes/south-
central Canada. A cold front will extend from the deepening surface
low over the western Great lakes, southwest through the Arklatex on
Wednesday, strengthening as it progresses east Wednesday night.
There are still timing differences between the medium-range models,
but have trended toward the slower ECMWF solution, as the GFS has a
tendency to be too quick. This solution brings rain into the area by
Christmas Eve morning, with the the front over the Appalachians
Thursday night, progressing through the area on Christmas Day. The
cold air should chase the precipitation, thus do not expect any
wintry precipitation over central NC with the pre-frontal
convection. The question will be if there is enough wrap-around
moisture as the upper trough swings through late Friday, though
surface temps should stay above freezing through sunset Friday. As
the trough lifts away and front shift farther east, cool high
pressure will again build into the area from the southwest for
Saturday. Expect a wet Christmas Eve, though amounts are yet TBD.
Temperatures are expected to moderate ahead of the front mid-week,
with much cooler air expected to filter in by the weekend.
 
FallsLake said:
RAH going with the euro. It also shows in the grid forecast for my area where they took any mention of snow out. :(

Thursday onward: The next weather system to impact central NC will
develop over the Plains on Wednesday as a trough deepens over the
middle of the CONUS, extending south into TX/LA by Wednesday night
with the parent low still over the northwest Great Lakes/south-
central Canada. A cold front will extend from the deepening surface
low over the western Great lakes, southwest through the Arklatex on
Wednesday, strengthening as it progresses east Wednesday night.
There are still timing differences between the medium-range models,
but have trended toward the slower ECMWF solution, as the GFS has a
tendency to be too quick. This solution brings rain into the area by
Christmas Eve morning, with the the front over the Appalachians
Thursday night, progressing through the area on Christmas Day. The
cold air should chase the precipitation, thus do not expect any
wintry precipitation over central NC with the pre-frontal
convection. The question will be if there is enough wrap-around
moisture as the upper trough swings through late Friday, though
surface temps should stay above freezing through sunset Friday. As
the trough lifts away and front shift farther east, cool high
pressure will again build into the area from the southwest for
Saturday. Expect a wet Christmas Eve, though amounts are yet TBD.
Temperatures are expected to moderate ahead of the front mid-week,
with much cooler air expected to filter in by the weekend.
Click to expand...
They said in the overnight afd that they couldn't have below freezing temps and rain in the grids so they had no choice but to put snow in. Also they throw a bone about some snow on Christmas day
 
What is interesting is that the WPC is still putting out low probabilities a snow event. Small chance of 1/4 liquid equivalent snow/sleet still exists in parts of northern Alabama and Georgia as well as all of Tennessee.74BABDA6-6E8C-4A40-B607-D7CF562870DC.gif
 
BufordWX said:
What is interesting is that the WPC is still putting out low probabilities a snow event. Small chance of 1/4 liquid equivalent snow/sleet still exists in parts of northern Alabama and Georgia as well as all of Tennessee.View attachment 58852
Click to expand...
Not surprising. Who would put much in snow in the south on Christmas? Climatology at its best.
So it’s NOT surprising.
 
Final snowfall amounts from the 18z.
gfs_asnow_seus_25.png
 
Flotown said:
Long time lurker 1st time poster.Got to like how the euro handled this possibility for some snow.Like someone else said earlier just a few adjustments and it would have been a big dog for somebody.
Click to expand...
Welcome to the board. Glad to see North Alabama person in here.
 
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