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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

pcbjr said:
I hope this doesn't cause mass cliff diving and other forms of suicide, if he means the winter that spanned 1971 into 1972 -

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Bout what I expect this winter ... think got good chance to be even milder than last year's winter... I go into detail as we draw closer ....
 
pcbjr said:
I hope this doesn't cause mass cliff diving and other forms of suicide, if he means the winter that spanned 1971 into 1972 -

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At the bottom of his post he said, "The first 2/3 of the winter were warmer than average and then the last 1/3 was colder than average."

But, that doesn't mean that we'll see an exact copy of 1971-72 winter.

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WeatherWatch said:
At the bottom of his post he said, "The first 2/3 of the winter were warmer than average and then the last 1/3 was colder than average."

But, that doesn't mean that we'll see an exact copy of 1971-72 winter.

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OK - pick your poison

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.... butttt ... it's way too far away for anyone to be seriously making a winter forecast; too many major players aren't going to even begin to come into focus for another 8 to 10 weeks, and even then, they'll be fuzzy until 12 or so, at least ...
 
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WeatherWatch said:
I'll take Feb. to March since I'm in the -2.0 lol.

On a serious note: If I wanted to use an analog year, I'd wait till what this fall will have in store and go from there.

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Precisely ;) ... and along that line, see edit to #43 which preceded your post, above ... :cool:
 
It will be funny if this winter ends up being well below average temps and above average snowfall. Really bothers me to use any analogs this far out in time, nothing wrong using analogs buy doesn't mean that there will copy as posted above. Past 2 years was horrible with winter so its not like were loosing anything we can only hope for the best.
 
accu35 said:
It will be funny if this winter ends up being well below average temps and above average snowfall. Really bothers me to use any analogs this far out in time, nothing wrong using analogs buy doesn't mean that there will copy as posted above. Past 2 years was horrible with winter so its not like were loosing anything we can only hope for the best.
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I agree. You can't use something that could change ahead of time and any one thing could change the entire result of the season as last year had it.
 
accu35 said:
It will be funny if this winter ends up being well below average temps and above average snowfall. Really bothers me to use any analogs this far out in time, nothing wrong using analogs buy doesn't mean that there will copy as posted above. Past 2 years was horrible with winter so its not like were loosing anything we can only hope for the best.
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Sometimes I try to make a diplomatic point, without being blunt, and those composites were certainly one of those times ...
 
WeatherWatch said:
Glenn Burns using 1971 as an analog year for this upcoming winter.


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Sounds about right! And GB , is a MF'n PIMP
 
pcbjr said:
I hope this doesn't cause mass cliff diving and other forms of suicide, if he means the winter that spanned 1971 into 1972 -

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Despite preferring a cold winter, I actually would like to see a higher % of winter outlooks/analogs that aren't near normal or colder for a change as it makes the winter outlooks seem more objective. In a weird way, it is kind of refreshing. JB is far from the only one who likes to hug cold analogs. I've been guilty of using cold analogs, myself, at times though I back up my choice of analogs with what I feel is strongly supporting data and I haven't presented mainly cold analogs most winters, regardless. I might tend to be quiet and say less if analogs look warm, but I won't force in cold analogs when I don't feel they can be supported.

I think Eric was one of the few with a solid warm outlook for last winter if I'm not mistaken. Eric, assuming you read this post, is that correct? if so, mucho kudos! If JB were to go warm for much of the E US for a change and get it right, it would go a long way toward helping his credibility.
 
GaWx said:
Despite preferring a cold winter, I actually would like to see a higher % of winter outlooks/analogs that aren't near normal or colder for a change as it makes the winter outlooks seem more objective. In a weird way, it is kind of refreshing. JB is far from the only one who likes to hug cold analogs. I've been guilty of using cold analogs, myself, at times though I back up my choice of analogs with what I feel is strongly supporting data and I haven't done this most winters. I might tend to be quiet and say less if analogs look warm, but I won't force in cold analogs when I don't feel they can be supported.

I think Eric was one of the few with a solid warm outlook for last winter if I'm not mistaken. Eric, assuming you read this post, is that correct? if so, mucho kudos! If JB were to go warm for much of the E US for a change and get it right, it would go a long way toward helping his credibility.
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Larry,
Great post!
My only point (scroll down in that part of the thread) is that it's far too early to start analogueing or forecasting winter ... too many players are not yet on the field. Analogy - an SEC game and the FL QB is tossing bad in warmups an hour before kickoff - bad game to come, or does Vandy go down once the game starts?
Best ;),
Phil
 
GaWx said:
Despite preferring a cold winter, I actually would like to see a higher % of winter outlooks/analogs that aren't near normal or colder for a change as it makes the winter outlooks seem more objective. In a weird way, it is kind of refreshing. JB is far from the only one who likes to hug cold analogs. I've been guilty of using cold analogs, myself, at times though I back up my choice of analogs with what I feel is strongly supporting data and I haven't presented mainly cold analogs most winters, regardless. I might tend to be quiet and say less if analogs look warm, but I won't force in cold analogs when I don't feel they can be supported.

I think Eric was one of the few with a solid warm outlook for last winter if I'm not mistaken. Eric, assuming you read this post, is that correct? if so, mucho kudos! If JB were to go warm for much of the E US for a change and get it right, it would go a long way toward helping his credibility.
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Even if this winter ends up like last year, theres always a exciting chance or 2 for a southeast winterstorm. Like Charlie mention few months back, thats what makes it exciting living in the southeast, and late night model watching and you never know what may come.
 
accu35 said:
Even if this winter ends up like last year, theres always a exciting chance or 2 for a southeast winterstorm. Like Charlie mention few months back, thats what makes it exciting living in the southeast, and late night model watching and you never know what may come.
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Actually, the good news is last winter was sooooo ridiculously warm that the odds are very high this winter will be colder than last winter. This even includes if we have another warm winter! Even if warm, it is going to be very hard to get one as warm as last winter!

Also, I agree with you about the usual chance or two for a winter storm for most on this board even if not a cold winter. Actually, the fact that winter storms are so rare down here makes me like living here and looking forward to the rare wintry treat! It is the rarity of these that really makes me love them more than anything else.
 
Just for kicks, since we're on the train, let's see how this pans out and verifies in a month to 6 weeks, and maybe a point has been made, or not ... :cool:

CFSv2.Na_T2m.20170804.201709.gif


... although if Webb were to post or PM me and say that in Jan 2019 I'd have snow on the ground, I'd go with it ... ;)
 
Believe I'll pass on the 71/72 redo. We ended up with 2 inches for the winter. Couple of very cold and very warm spells in January followed by a warm February and bad warm March. Lowest temp for the whole month of March was 30.
 
While 1971-72 was a warm winter in NC, we still ended up seeing a big dog hit the southwestern piedmont and south-central mountains early in December and it managed to produce some decent snowfall further east across central NC.
December 3-4 1971 NC Snowmap.png
 
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Seems fair enough, ill take my chances on this pattern for our winter storms. Not a bad pattern.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If we can pair that with a -NAO for some time (if only) then it could go well, but what are the chances of having one?
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Lol yeah i agree on that, if this pattern happens the way i posted above then it shouldn't be that bad. If indeed we stay neutral/weak Nino then ill take my chances on a wet pattern only to get a nice cold blast to involve with it. -NAO would help but it doesn't have to solid to get a nice winterstorm or 2. There still calling "possible" onset weak Nino then falling towards Neutral but will see what happens, plenty time to go. Fun times ahead for sure.
 
Thats just one of lots of forecast that are out. I seen one a bit ago where there calling a neutral with below avg temps and snow/ice events for the southeast, LOL. This is the fun part of it all
 
Webberweather53 said:
While 1971-72 was a warm winter in NC, we still ended up seeing a big dog hit the southwestern piedmont and south-central mountains early in December and it managed to produce some decent snowfall further east across central NC.
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I remember the torch that ensued after that snowstorm. That was a strange winter...bookended by a snowstorm in early December and another one in late March.
 
Eric said:
I remember the torch that ensued after that snowstorm. That was a strange winter...bookended by a snowstorm in early December and another one in late March.
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precisely why no one in their right mind wants a real early snow (or winter) ... it bookends, inevitably ... :oops:
 
accu35 said:
Lol yeah i agree on that, if this pattern happens the way i posted above then it shouldn't be that bad. If indeed we stay neutral/weak Nino then ill take my chances on a wet pattern only to get a nice cold blast to involve with it. -NAO would help but it doesn't have to solid to get a nice winterstorm or 2. There still calling "possible" onset weak Nino then falling towards Neutral but will see what happens, plenty time to go. Fun times ahead for sure.
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Looks like that pattern could set up some nice wedge events. I'll take that look this far out...
 
WeatherWatch said:
Here is Weather Advanced preliminary winter outlook. Not sure how creditable Weather Advance is.

http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2017-2018-outlook/


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From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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Yeah it's horrible and difficult to read but funny thing is it may very well be right Lol.... who knows?! Especially wrt to some CAD ice events
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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Lol, your right i think that battle zone line will vary different directions this year. Higher "Kicked" vortex? Sounds like there not sure how cold it will actually get in the southeast. There ealry winter forecast that based on in the month of May, tells me i smell ICE STORM further south than they are projecting
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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The person who runs it lives in MD. Note that it says "wet cold snowy" for his area. If it had instead said "dry mild little snow", I'd likely have given it more weight right off the bat.

I checked further. Look at this page:

http://weatheradvance.com/winter-center/

Note that there's not one prediction for mild/above average temperatures, below average snow, and dry for all 6 winters in MD.
 
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pcbjr said:
Ya'all are killing me ... one more post before October 1st about what this winter "may" bring, and I'm finding the tallest mountain in Florida and jumping ... :confused:
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You mean the clay pits Lol!!
 
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