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Misc Jalapeño July

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SD said:
Options->radar and locations ->locations->arrow in text box-> select the first location-> edit the name to say home or whatever you want -> save->done

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Thank you kind sir!
 
Storm5 said:
well this isn't gonna help the have nots
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That map will be perfectly right too. The drought is coming back to western NC and SC probably along with high heat. The pattern for the rest of summer started here on Sunday and really showed itself yesterday and today. Places 10 miles from me have had 4 storms and up to 3-4 inches of rain with not 1 drop here in the last 30 hours.
 
JHS said:
That map will be perfectly right too. The drought is coming back to western NC and SC probably along with high heat. The pattern for the rest of summer started here on Sunday and really showed itself yesterday and today. Places 10 miles from me have had 4 storms and up to 3-4 inches of rain with not 1 drop here in the last 30 hours.
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Severely doubt the rest of summer, or even the rest of the month. Look at the models. They seem to agree with the lack of rain for us for now, but the temperatures will drop in a bout a week when the trough dips again. As for rain, all we need is a flow of moisture. Also, drought won't return as fast as you think. You are only down 4 inches for the year at most. As long as moisture is in the area, which it is, you won't get much of a drought. If a Nino is coming, I am sure the drought probably won't return. Plus, 30 hours without a drop isn't long, 1 months is.
 
From wxman57 at another BB:

"The next version of the ECMWF will be active on July 11th with the 12Z run. Here's a link to info on what's included in the upgrade:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

And here's a link to how the upgrade may affect its performance with tropical cyclones. Looks like some good, some bad, to me:

http://wxman57.com/images/TCPerformance_43r3_43r1.pdf"

My comment:
From the first link:

"Tropical cyclone intensity (as measured by central pressure) is slightly reduced from day 2 onwards: for lead times beyond four days this has a beneficial effect since it reduces the existing negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure in such forecasts. You can find statistics on the Cycle 43r3 tropical cyclones forecast performance in TCPerformance_43r3_43r1.pdf."

I think this is good because I've found the Euro to have often been too strong with TCs once the model develops them since 2010 (remember the 2010 Fiona fiasco?), especially north of 25N in the Atlantic basin, which started soon after an increase in resolution.
 
Storms moving in. Was out with the family for ice cream and saw lightning in the distance. Must be a hack if a light show because it seemed a lot closer than it actually was.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
914 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Person County in central North Carolina...
Granville County in central North Carolina...
Northwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
Durham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1015 PM EDT

* At 913 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Leasburg to 6 miles west of Rougemont to near Hillsborough, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, Oxford, Roxboro, Creedmoor, Butner, Rougemont, Concord and Stem.
 
tractor girl said:
When will the early Winter 17/18 forecasts start rolling in?
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JBs is already out: well below temps in the Mid-Atlantic and Notteast.
Snowfall 500% of normal, for same areas! :)
 
I've got 90s and 0% chance of rain on my TWC local forecast through next Thursday . When's the cool down and rainy pattern start??
 
ForsythSnow said:
Severely doubt the rest of summer, or even the rest of the month. Look at the models. They seem to agree with the lack of rain for us for now, but the temperatures will drop in a bout a week when the trough dips again. As for rain, all we need is a flow of moisture. Also, drought won't return as fast as you think. You are only down 4 inches for the year at most. As long as moisture is in the area, which it is, you won't get much of a drought. If a Nino is coming, I am sure the drought probably won't return. Plus, 30 hours without a drop isn't long, 1 months is.
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I meant there that areas close to me had gotten 4 separate storms without our area seeing a drop. It has now been 5 days since we have had rain here and the GFS says it'll be dry for at least a week longer.
 
JHS said:
I meant there that areas close to me had gotten 4 separate storms without our area seeing a drop. It has now been 5 days since we have had rain here and the GFS says it'll be dry for at least a week longer.
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Welcome to the club, managed a nice .14 since 6/24
 
SD said:
Welcome to the club, managed a nice .14 since 6/24
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Up until yesterday I had 0 in that stretch but then yesterday 1.5"... the feast or famine pattern continues. I swear every rain I've had has been big then long stretches without, in the end I guess it all averages out
 
If I get anymore rain then my grass will start rolling up
 
Drought only growing in Virginia, Northern Virginia. We are only dry in far NW Alabama and near Augusta Georgia. Can we fill up the lakes now? Sick of being under a level 2 drought restriction when there is no drought.
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Tarheel1 said:
I've got 90s and 0% chance of rain on my TWC local forecast through next Thursday . When's the cool down and rainy pattern start??
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You have a big storm moving in with a warning out for it. I wonder if it can make it 2 counties over to where I am.
 
Finally, I'm a " have" today !! :)
 
The 12z GFS has the area from Atlanta Ga up into the NC foothills with less than .75 of rain right into the very long range. It has a tropical system near the end of the run, but of course that won't happen. All other areas do much better of course in what has to be a northwest flow pattern. That pattern is known for being very dry here in upstate SC.
 
JHS said:
The 12z GFS has the area from Atlanta Ga up into the NC foothills with less than .75 of rain right into the very long range. It has a tropical system near the end of the run, but of course that won't happen. All other areas do much better of course in what has to be a northwest flow pattern. That pattern is known for being very dry here in upstate SC.
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Had 0.25" of rain so far today, and the has has me getting half of that for the whole run. I don't see any issues around here. As for SC, you will get rain. Be glad it is showing more than half an inch. Last year was extreme, so rain will happen at least once a week on average at the very worst.

Also I see rain is headed for you.
 
Oh look its raining in the same places again today

Meanwhile its the hottest day of the summer imby with 94/106

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SD said:
Oh look its raining in the same places again today

Meanwhile its the hottest day of the summer imby with 94/106

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You should start to do better even as it dries out over here in the western Carolinas once the northwest flow gets going. Downsloping usually keeps the area just east and south of the mountains dry, while storms fire along I-77 and the move east. The Raleigh area should do well with these. Tenn and Al will do well too.
 
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