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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

It looks like we may have a wave/depression this weekend in the Gulf. Some ensembles and NAM support this.


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I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.
 
Brent said:
Only need 1 more landfall to tie the record... 2 to beat it..

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I just found out that since 1851, 1886 has had the most US landfalling Hs with 7. Just behind that is the 6 of 1985. Among probably others, 1893, 2004, and 2005 have 5. So far, 2020 has 4 and it is only 9/18.

*Corrected as 2004 had 5, not 6, landfalling Hs. I took out Alex, despite giving Hatteras H winds, because it technically wasn't a landfall as the center was barely offshore.
 
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GaWx said:
I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.
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The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
 
GaWx said:
The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
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Looking to forward to it


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GaWx said:
The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
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Not surprised at all
 
The rest of the names hopefully we don't run out of these too :p

2005 only got to Zeta(also didn't hit Alpha til October 22nd!!)

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So what’s the record for the most named storms forming in 24 hours? Probably going to have had 3 today by this afternoon.
 
The end of the 12Z GFS is setting up a nightmare for the east coast....its funny because I was talking to Shaggy yesterday and said something like that track across FL then blocked up the coast into NC was how I thought we would get hit again if we did end up getting another storm up this way this season.

Obviously its 360hr out blah blah
 
GaWx said:
I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.
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I looked at the storms that were in the Caribbean at some point and that had originated 9/21+ for analog seasons back to 1865 that were-1) during weak to moderate La Nina as of Sep and 2) that were preceded by weak to moderate El Nino the previous fall/winter

That gives me these ten: 1869, 1886, 1906, 1924, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2007

1. 1869: storm 10 (aka "Saxby Gale") identified first as already a cat 2 just N of the Bahamas late 10/3 moving rapidly NNE; therefore can assume it likely originated in the Caribbean very late Sep as there was a TS there on 10/1; this hit the NE US as a cat 2 on 10/4

2. 1886: storm 10 (aka "TX/LA H of 1886") formed 10/7 in Caribbean and hit TX/LA border as a cat 3 on 10/12

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

4. 1924: storm 10 (aka "Cuba H of 1924") formed 10/13 in Caribbean, hit Cuba as a cat 5, and hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/20

5. 1942: none

6. 1954: Hazel formed 10/5 E of the Lesser Antilles, went into the Caribbean, and hit SC/NC border as a cat 4 on 10/15

7. 1964: a) Hilda formed 9/28 in Caribbean, became a cat 4, and hit LA as a cat 2 on 10/3


b) Isbell formed 10/8 and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/14

8. 1970: none

9. 1995: Opal formed 9/27, became a cat 4, and hit FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/4

10. 2007: none

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So, in summary::

- a whopping 8 CONUS H hits from storms that were previously in the Caribbean during 7 of the 10 analog seasons! Of these 8, 5 were majors. So, out of 10 seasons, half had a major H hit on CONUS.

- genesis date range: 9/27-10/13

- CONUS landfall date range 10/3-20 with these dates: 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/18. 10/20

- Landfall locations: S FL 3; N Gulf coast: 3; SC/NC: 1; NE US: 1


** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and then when also considering how warm the Caribbean is:


Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

Please don't shoot the messenger!
 
18z GFS.....produces 2 storms at the tail of a front....it doesn't do anything with it, but we've been here before.

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Dawgdaze22 said:
What’s spinning off Florida’s east coast?


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What's left of Sally and a front

got a mention in the TWO

A small low pressure system is located near a frontal boundary, just
off the eastern coast of central Florida. The low is producing a
small area of thunderstorms near the coast, and recent buoy and
satellite-derived wind data indicate that gale-force winds are
occuring in the area. The low is expected to move inland over
Florida later this morning, and significant development is not
anticipated. For more information on this system, please see local
products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
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00z Icon.....4 runs......another dropping off Africa end of next week. Euro picked up on it in 00z overnight.


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A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central
Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake
Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some
development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday
or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this
disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
18z Icon.....and 6th run with popup in gulf next week.

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18z GFS......has this little circle in the gulf that does nothing....

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Brent said:
The Florida thing is down to 0/0 lmao
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I would have kept it as a 10 or even 20% ? for the next 48 hours as upper winds/shear look pretty light and SSTs are warm. Also, a number of models show a weak reflection of this at the surface moving well out into the GOM. It likely won’t get to TD status, but I don’t think it is close to 0% either. But I respect the NHC.

*Corrected
 
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