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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Myfrotho704_ said:
I smell.... I smelly smell truth View attachment 48271View attachment 48272
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I wish lol but the euro continues to show dewpoints in the 30s/40s and highs in the 60s along with lows in the 50s, At this point I’ve accepted that storm season is pretty much over and it’s almost time for fall color shots , so bring it on
 
RAH is now more certain the cool down next week happens:

Monday will see the longwave trough and associated surface cold
front move eastward across the mountains and into the Mid Atlantic.
Showers and pre-frontal thunderstorms are expected through the day
along with above normal temps in the mid and even upper 80s in
spots. For the past few days there have been differences among the
models with respect to how far this front sags southward before it
stalls. Today`s guidance and ensembles are showing increasing
chances that the front makes it through NC, resulting in cooler and
drier weather Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. If the front does manage
to stall, the best chance for a stray shower would be across the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain but at this point I`m going
with a dry forecast for the middle of next week. Temps during this
period will see highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the lower
60s/upper 50s along with drier dewpoints. Very similar to what was
seen last weekend.
 
Brick Tamland said:
80% chance of rain here tonight, and 70% chance tomorrow and Friday. I guess if we get sprinkles it'll technically be right. We'll see how much we actually get, though.
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Yeah, they nailed the forecast today.

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Tarheel1 said:
3rd day in a row of record low max temps! High today 53
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Earliest stretch of 3 days in a row of 50 degree highs! Beating the previous record by about 2 weeks and that was set 88 years ago! They have some good local Mets on TV, that nerd out on severe and snow! Currently 52
 
Favorable trends on the GFS overnight for normal to slightly BN for NGA. Canadian still likes it colder.


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FWIW I generally try to keep an eye on Fall Foilage reports. This predictor is showing color much earlier than the last few years.

2023 Fall Foliage Map & Nationwide Peak Leaf Forecast

Jun 29, 2023 - Are you planning a trip to the Smoky Mountains or Gatlinburg? We have 2,000 rentals including Gatlinburg cabins and vacation rentals.
smokymountains.com smokymountains.com

It is showing a little color now in mountains and has it past peak generally by end of October. Not sure I believe that, but we have had some years where that was true. Also have had some years where we had color to Thanksgiving. I was on the BR PKWY last weekend and thought some of the trees were starting to get that look.

It says it is based on weather patterns and past history and forecasts. This has been a wetter summer than recent years. We just need some warm days and cool nights.

We had that cold snap in November last year and many trees in north Georgia went from mostly green to brown ... very poor color season overall. Hopefully this season will be better.
 
k0skinne said:
It is showing a little color now in mountains and has it past peak generally by end of October. Not sure I believe that, but we have had some years where that was true.
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In my lifetime of growing up in WNC, 3rd-4th week of October was typically the date for peak color. Higher elevations were earlier, some foliage stays later and obviously it can differ from year to year, but in general that is always the target date for peak color.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
In my lifetime of growing up in WNC, 3rd-4th week of October was typically the date for peak color. Higher elevations were earlier, some foliage stays later and obviously it can differ from year to year, but in general that is always the target date for peak color.
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I always tried to visit during that time period ... I was a little surprised that this predictor map showed the color past peak by the 3rd week of October. I am still planning to come up during the 3rd or 4th week as that always seems to be peak for the majority of the area.

I don't exactly remember last year's predictor map what it showed, but I don't think it was nearly that aggressive. Time will tell. I hope the season is beautiful and lasts several weeks!
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A fall foliage thread would be awesome. We could post views from homes, offices or nearby vistas. Well maybe not that awesome but whatevs. It’s the most wonderful time of the year. When hope falls eternal.


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ATLwxfan said:
A fall foliage thread would be awesome. We could post views from homes, offices or nearby vistas. Well maybe not that awesome but whatevs. It’s the most wonderful time of the year. When hope falls eternal.


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Start it
 
Only a 60% chance of storms today compared to the 80% and 70% chance RAH had for us Wednesday night and yesterday when we didn't even get a drop of rain. Not sure how they missed it that bad, but maybe today will produce.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe they just had to reduce the chance to get some.
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Eh they actually mentioned in the AFD a couple of days ago that rain chances might have a hard time getting going inland from the main sfc convergence along the coast. They were damned either way to be honest, if they cut back on rain chances and the storms along the coast barf out a big westward moving OFB and it keeps producing through the coastal plain into the piedmont then everyone is mad that they cut rain chances but it rained. Also it was a fairly big dump taken by the models especially the globals that produced a good amount of rain inland...
 
Brick Tamland said:
Only a 60% chance of storms today compared to the 80% and 70% chance RAH had for us Wednesday night and yesterday when we didn't even get a drop of rain. Not sure how they missed it that bad, but maybe today will produce.
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When did 80% start to = 100%?
 
Rain Cold said:
I think it's not a bust if you don't get rain on your rooftop.
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I've had rain each of the last 4 days and I'm not complaining that the percentages were too low.... I also understand how they work.
 
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