Tropical Tropical Storm Marco

[Arcc]

A quick glance at the Euro makes me think there is a fine line between a sheared storm and a highly ventilated one at landfall.

 

[Dawgdaze22]

Anyone else think Marco is moving more NNE?


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[jackendrickwx]

Big ol convective burst NE of the center ( at least I think that’s NE of the center lol)

 

[Ollie Williams]

Anyone else think Marco is moving more NNE?


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That doesn’t surprise me, as Levi mentioned, the stronger the storm gets, the more it is steered by the LLC to the NNE.However if it’s weaker, you may see more steering from the MLC to the NW.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Thats gotta be one of the most drastic shifts I've ever seen at day 2 View attachment 46981

And then two days later Laura comes in almost the same spot. LA might be under water, especially New Orleans.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

And then two days later Laura comes in almost the same spot. LA might be under water, especially New Orleans.

View attachment 46989

Thats pretty incredible weakening going from a hurricane to depression in 24 hours. Isn't that pretty flat land in MS and LA?

 

[Brent]

Meanwhile the HWRF is basically a swirl at landfall it may weaken beforehand due to the shear still the center is off the tip of LA here

Still a lot of uncertainty obviously and this is in 2 days

 

[Brent]

 

[Snowfan]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 86.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

 

[accu35]

Marco at 70 now?

 

[accu35]

Marco is trying, but a sloppy 70 mph storm.

 

[Ethan80963]

12z spaghetti models

 

[Snowfan]

Hurricane Marco?

URNT15 KNHC 231521
AF301 0814A MARCO HDOB 39 20200823
151200 2445N 08735W 8426 01518 0016 +205 +116 349037 040 043 002 03
151230 2445N 08734W 8429 01504 9998 +219 +108 343039 040 047 003 00
151300 2446N 08732W 8431 01494 9981 +226 +108 343045 047 050 004 00
151330 2446N 08730W 8430 01481 9979 +207 +133 341050 053 038 009 00
151400 2446N 08728W 8407 01494 9976 +183 +144 333043 047 046 018 00
151430 2447N 08726W 8462 01427 9961 +196 +141 316044 048 056 032 03
151500 2448N 08725W 8430 01465 9971 +193 +159 328041 054 064 038 00
151530 2449N 08724W 8536 01352 9978 +177 +177 316049 056 058 042 03
151600 2450N 08722W 8534 01344 9945 +196 +187 099003 049 059 038 00
151630 2452N 08721W 8415 01467 9928 +228 +173 083013 019 051 004 03
151700 2453N 08720W 8429 01457 9944 +199 +194 120026 037 058 002 00
151730 2454N 08719W 8417 01478 9967 +189 //// 139048 053 063 003 05
151800 2455N 08718W 8443 01466 9977 +193 +193 145054 055 061 004 03
151830 2455N 08716W 8422 01488 9979 +190 //// 148056 057 063 002 01
151900 2454N 08716W 8429 01478 //// +189 //// 148063 065 063 002 01
151930 2453N 08715W 8423 01484 9977 +189 //// 151064 067 064 004 01
152000 2453N 08714W 8433 01470 9975 +188 //// 156066 069 064 003 01
152030 2452N 08713W 8439 01466 //// +186 //// 161065 070 068 001 01
152100 2451N 08712W 8421 01484 //// +186 //// 166066 067 069 001 01
152130 2450N 08711W 8442 01467 //// +185 //// 172068 070 070 000 05
$$
;

 

[SD]

It's not impossible that Marco never makes landfall. If it gets sheared and decoupled later today into tomorrow the mlc and moisture may be pulled into the SE but the LLC may begin to bend W just south of La then start to orbit W then S around Laura

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[accu35]

Marco could do a last minute surprise today

 

[ForsythSnow]

Everyone's talking about the shear but all I see is a soon to be hurricane about to intensify. Sat looks really good.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Everyone's talking about the shear but all I see is a soon to be hurricane about to intensify. Sat looks really good.

Yep, this should get upgraded to a hurricane very soon and at least for now it has room to run. We'll see what happens later on though...

 

[Tarheel1]

Hurricane Marco

 

[jackendrickwx]

We have Hurricane Marco

​

000
WTNT64 KNHC 231629
TCUAT4

Hurricane Marco Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 87.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto