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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

18Z GFS spins up a homegrown from one of these waves after it move to right on the SE FL coast and moves it north just offshore with a landfalling(ish) cane over central SC to ILM around the mid 980's

Lock this in since I have a house rented at the coast near MHX for Labor day weekend
 
Downeastnc said:
18Z GFS spins up a homegrown from one of these waves after it move to right on the SE FL coast and moves it north just offshore with a landfalling(ish) cane over central SC to ILM around the mid 980's

Lock this in since I have a house rented at the coast near MHX for Labor day weekend
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That's actually 98L fyi in case you didn't know.
 
Henry2326 said:
Had to post this.....12z Navgem.....how often do we see this?....never

View attachment 46596
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I’ve done some studying on the great Western Carolinas flood of 1916 and this is actually very similar to the set up. One hurricane hit the gulf near Mobile while another hit just south of Charleston a day later. The steering brought the remnants of the two storms together over the Carolinas and gave a horrible flood.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve done some studying on the great Western Carolinas flood of 1916 and this is actually very similar to the set up. One hurricane hit the gulf near Mobile while another hit just south of Charleston a day later. The steering brought the remnants of the two storms together over the Carolinas and gave a horrible flood.
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Wow....Thanks for the info....wiped out Asheville and Hendersonville.

 
Chazwin said:
I’ve done some studying on the great Western Carolinas flood of 1916 and this is actually very similar to the set up. One hurricane hit the gulf near Mobile while another hit just south of Charleston a day later. The steering brought the remnants of the two storms together over the Carolinas and gave a horrible flood.
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So how did eastern NC hold up when all that runoff made it way down to us? As bad as I’d imagine?
 
lexxnchloe said:
2 hurricanes at once?
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we've had 4 at once before in 1998 but I can't remember the last time we *may* have had 2 threatening the US also had 3 at once in 2017

Bonnie Charley 2004 was close but Bonnie was only a weak TS into the Panhandle the day before Charley hit below Tampa as a Cat 4
 
Already the African wave is in the TWO lol

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea,
Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern
Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (3).png
 
910guy said:
So how did eastern NC hold up when all that runoff made it way down to us? As bad as I’d imagine?
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From my reading while. Eastern NC saw some flooding, it was Eastern SC that was much worse since the flooding in NC was especially bad along the Yadkin, Catawba, Saluda, and Broad Rivers. All of that water overflowed the Pee Dee and Santee Rivers. Keep in mind this is well before any those rivers started getting dammed so there was no man made control to them.
 
Brent said:
Already the African wave is in the TWO lol

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea,
Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern
Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

View attachment 46691
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The Treacherous Three.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's likely just the beginning of what's to come, just wait til most of the subseasonal tropical convection shifts into the Indian Ocean
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Yeah if some of the tweets I saw today are right this isn't even the most favorable it's gonna be

I've been thinking all day how its still kind of early anyway on this date in 2017 Harvey died before it changed history so yeah and Irma wasn't even a thought yet

Last year Dorian still to come

2005 Katrina hadn't happened yet
2008 Gustav and Ike still to come

Etc
 
Not gonna lie, this MJO wave that's currently over the western hemisphere looks a lot like this one from mid-late August & September 1979.

The Atlantic went onto produce five storms at once on September 1, 1979.

I made this plot in python and plotted the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM), Velocity Potential MJO (VPM), & Outgoing Longwave Radiation MJO Indices (OMI)

MJO_Indices_1979_crop.png



Now compare w/ the ECMWF forecast.

1597901920748.png


Lol
 
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?F08A9CEC-2542-4023-9549-60AED4BCF38B.pngF136AA3E-DCC5-45C7-A9F2-2A9D2C9BB72E.png
 
BufordWX said:
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?View attachment 46793View attachment 46794
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Good observation. As I just posted in the other thread, I doubt both a TS in the W GOM and H in E GOM as if 8AM Tue will verify. Something will change though I’m not sure what. If I had to guess, it would be that 13 will not then be in the GOM as a TC.
 
BufordWX said:
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?View attachment 46793View attachment 46794
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Closest thing I remember was Bonnie Charley 2004 but Bonnie was falling apart and weak It hit the Panhandle the day before Charley hit below Tampa

From the Wikipedia article

Twenty-two hours after Bonnie struck Florida, Hurricane Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas. This was the first time in recorded history that two tropical storms struck Florida within 1 day. Previously, Hurricane Gordon and Tropical Storm Helene struck the state within five days of each other in September 2000.
 
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SD said:
Interesting
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my theory is one will become dominant and basically shear/kill the other outflow=shear

but which one?

thats how its happened in other basins

Interesting note about 1933 too that was until 2005 the busiest Atlantic season
 
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lexxnchloe said:
The preseason forecasts were very bullish. Do any experts on here have a time frame when the dry air and shearing winds go away?
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I'll defer to Webber or someone else here, but the truth is its still 3 weeks til the peak like I was saying last night

most of the noteworthy storms recently hadn't even formed yet. Harvey had died yesterday and nobody expected it to be a Cat 4 into Texas a few days later. Things change fast out there

as far as the struggles of TD 13 go... well nobody not even the hyped up HWRF had anything happening til this weekend so we shouldn't just close the door on it being something yet. I would never trust even a wave moving across the Bahamas and the Straits and the Gulf the last week of August... I don't care what the Euro says. If the Euro was right this season we'd probably be looking for F or G right now. It may well be right that it's a wave and we'll be damn lucky if it is but it still said it should have never formed to begin with and the same goes for TD 14 nobody had 14 forming today
 
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I’m thinking two cane landfalls with the decent environment we are gonna have in the GOM. #2020sucks


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In my view, two canes in such close proximity is unlikely. It seems that either one will be stronger or both weaker. Time will tell of course. But if one system is in NE TX/W LA and the other in N FL, It would be difficult for both to be canes.
 
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