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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Not gonna lie, this MJO wave that's currently over the western hemisphere looks a lot like this one from mid-late August & September 1979.

The Atlantic went onto produce five storms at once on September 1, 1979.

I made this plot in python and plotted the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM), Velocity Potential MJO (VPM), & Outgoing Longwave Radiation MJO Indices (OMI)

MJO_Indices_1979_crop.png



Now compare w/ the ECMWF forecast.

1597901920748.png


Lol
 
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?F08A9CEC-2542-4023-9549-60AED4BCF38B.pngF136AA3E-DCC5-45C7-A9F2-2A9D2C9BB72E.png
 
BufordWX said:
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?View attachment 46793View attachment 46794
Click to expand...

Good observation. As I just posted in the other thread, I doubt both a TS in the W GOM and H in E GOM as if 8AM Tue will verify. Something will change though I’m not sure what. If I had to guess, it would be that 13 will not then be in the GOM as a TC.
 
BufordWX said:
This has to do with both TD13 and TD14 so I will post it here if that is okay.

NHC track currently has both systems on either side of the GOM by Tuesday morning. How often do we get two systems simultaneously in the GOM threatening land?View attachment 46793View attachment 46794
Click to expand...

Closest thing I remember was Bonnie Charley 2004 but Bonnie was falling apart and weak It hit the Panhandle the day before Charley hit below Tampa

From the Wikipedia article

Twenty-two hours after Bonnie struck Florida, Hurricane Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas. This was the first time in recorded history that two tropical storms struck Florida within 1 day. Previously, Hurricane Gordon and Tropical Storm Helene struck the state within five days of each other in September 2000.
 
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SD said:
Interesting
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my theory is one will become dominant and basically shear/kill the other outflow=shear

but which one?

thats how its happened in other basins

Interesting note about 1933 too that was until 2005 the busiest Atlantic season
 
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lexxnchloe said:
The preseason forecasts were very bullish. Do any experts on here have a time frame when the dry air and shearing winds go away?
Click to expand...

I'll defer to Webber or someone else here, but the truth is its still 3 weeks til the peak like I was saying last night

most of the noteworthy storms recently hadn't even formed yet. Harvey had died yesterday and nobody expected it to be a Cat 4 into Texas a few days later. Things change fast out there

as far as the struggles of TD 13 go... well nobody not even the hyped up HWRF had anything happening til this weekend so we shouldn't just close the door on it being something yet. I would never trust even a wave moving across the Bahamas and the Straits and the Gulf the last week of August... I don't care what the Euro says. If the Euro was right this season we'd probably be looking for F or G right now. It may well be right that it's a wave and we'll be damn lucky if it is but it still said it should have never formed to begin with and the same goes for TD 14 nobody had 14 forming today
 
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I’m thinking two cane landfalls with the decent environment we are gonna have in the GOM. #2020sucks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
In my view, two canes in such close proximity is unlikely. It seems that either one will be stronger or both weaker. Time will tell of course. But if one system is in NE TX/W LA and the other in N FL, It would be difficult for both to be canes.
 
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