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Tropical Hurricane Season 2020 Model Archive

Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

It Gon' Rain
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
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Location
Raleigh, NC
4/3/2020
Last Winter 2019-2020 I created a model archive thread for winter storm maps. I feel that thread went well and I hope that it is very useful for the future. This hurricane season I have decided to do the same thing. I will say that maintaining a hurricane season thread will probably be much harder to do than a winter storm thread. For a storm to make its way into this thread, I probably will only post if it is a first for the season, hits land or is a crazy major storm. If we are tracking a storm that looks obviously credible, I will post on that as well.

If this thread goes the way that the winter thread goes, I'll most likely be the only one to post, but just some tips to keep things organized if you do post in here
1. Place the model name and date in the post
2. Make sure if you are posting an image move it to your desktop and then post it in the thread. Clicking and dragging from the browser doesn't work well.
3. If you are posting a 6hr precipitation map, I recommend adding a gif.

This Season so far (Timeline)
3/25/2020
Accuweather forecast
Screen-Shot-2020-03-26-at-8.39.20-AM.png
3/31/2020
Potentially subtropical storm development
(Nothing from the NHC)




EPS model gives a 100% chance of developing a tropical storm
ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_ts_ecmwf-6044800.png

4/1/2020
Continuation of potential subtropical storm
(No word from NHC)


4/2/2020
Colorado State hurricane forecast #1
RV4VLEW5S5B5PL6XSHCQ4W326Q.jpg
4/3/20
Extremely Warm Gulf
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png
 
Last edited:
Ollie Williams said:
4/3/2020
Last Winter 2019-2020 I created a model archive thread for winter storm maps. I feel that thread went well and I hope that it is very useful for the future. This hurricane season I have decided to do the same thing. I will say that maintaining a hurricane season thread will probably be much harder to do than a winter storm thread. For a storm to make its way into this thread, I probably will only post if it is a first for the season, hits land or is a crazy major storm. If we are tracking a storm that looks obviously credible, I will post on that as well.

If this thread goes the way that the winter thread goes, I'll most likely be the only one to post, but just some tips to keep things organized if you do post in here
1. Place the model name and date in the post
2. Make sure if you are posting an image move it to your desktop and then post it in the thread. Clicking and dragging from the browser doesn't work well.
3. If you are posting a 6hr precipitation map, I recommend adding a gif.

This Season so far (Timeline)
3/25/2020
Accuweather forecast
View attachment 38264
3/31/2020
Potentially subtropical storm development
(Nothing from the NHC)




EPS model gives a 100% chance of developing a tropical storm
View attachment 38266

4/1/2020
Continuation of potential subtropical storm
(No word from NHC)


4/2/2020
Colorado State hurricane forecast #1
View attachment 38265
4/3/20
Extremely Warm Gulf
View attachment 38270
Click to expand...

Going staright to Wiki ... as soon as my Lenten salmon comes off and is eaten ... ?
 
Just for fun, I’d love to see everyone’s personal predictions, what are your thoughts on this upcoming season? I believe this season has the potential to be historic however not quite like 2005, living in Miami I will never forget that year. I believe this year we will see a Category 5, like we have the past few years. In addition, I also think we have the potential to see more than one major hurricane make landfall in the US.

This season we’ll definitely have to keep an eye on the Gulf Of Mexico, as it’s waters are extremely warm. As always we’ll also have to keep an eye on the East Coast and it’s steering currents. Another prediction I’m making is that South Florida will see a direct impact or landfall from a Hurricane. The last few years they’ve managed to be on the fringe of an impact, and I think this year we’ll see it.
 
4/25/2020 8:00am
Tropical Depression One-E forms

**Please Note: I'm not a mod, but just to keep things organized, please post any discussion in the main Hurricane season thread**
two_pac_2d0.png
 
1 month away. NHC says to restock supplies NOW. CB3A1024-E214-4843-99FE-9A493715F72C.jpeg
 
5/5/2020
This is @Brent's post. I don't like the quote tool because it covers up the image:

May have to watch the old frontal boundary this weekend we actually have pretty good agreement between the Euro and the GFS

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_23.png
 
It's a pretty ominous sign of the impending hurricane season when every model run features an east pacific tropical system or hurricane making a B-Line across central America to the Atlantic side.

I'm looking forward to that Gulf System riding the front into Florida on Sunday. I'm bored. We need some weather. They say we're in some kind of drought in South Florida, but I never take a drought that seriously living in a place where I've seen one storm or a few days of heavy rainfall completely obliterate those conditions.
 
5/12/2020 10:05am
First outlook in the Atlantic.two_atl_5d1.png
Code: 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Latto
 
Last edited:
5/12/2020 7:30pm
Outlook increased to high
nhc outlook2.PNG
Code: 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Ollie Williams said:
5/12/2020 7:30pm
Outlook increased to high
View attachment 41294
Code: 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Click to expand...
Ollie ... No more, until September ... please ... then please have them all bending right if in the Atlantic, or due SW if in the Gulf ... please ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
Ollie ... No more, until September ... please ... then please have them all bending right if in the Atlantic, or due SW if in the Gulf ... please ... :cool:
Click to expand...
I’m okay with Hurricane season being Ironic. I don’t know about Mother Nature though.
 
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