Tropical Hurricane Season 2020 Model Archive

[Tornadocane]

It's a pretty ominous sign of the impending hurricane season when every model run features an east pacific tropical system or hurricane making a B-Line across central America to the Atlantic side.

I'm looking forward to that Gulf System riding the front into Florida on Sunday. I'm bored. We need some weather. They say we're in some kind of drought in South Florida, but I never take a drought that seriously living in a place where I've seen one storm or a few days of heavy rainfall completely obliterate those conditions.

 

[Ollie Williams]

5/8/2020 GFS
Thanks @pcbjr for pointing this out.

 

[Ollie Williams]

5/12/2020 10:05am
First outlook in the Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Latto

 

[Ollie Williams]

5/12/2020 7:30pm
Outlook increased to high

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[pcbjr]

5/12/2020 7:30pm
Outlook increased to high
View attachment 41294

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Ollie ... No more, until September ... please ... then please have them all bending right if in the Atlantic, or due SW if in the Gulf ... please ...

 

[Ollie Williams]

Ollie ... No more, until September ... please ... then please have them all bending right if in the Atlantic, or due SW if in the Gulf ... please ...

I’m okay with Hurricane season being Ironic. I don’t know about Mother Nature though.

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS 5/20

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS 5/22

 

[pcbjr]

18z GFS 5/22View attachment 41900

18Z ... 336 ... how much for Wake?

 

[NoSnowATL]

18z GFS 5/22View attachment 41900

The path... hmmmm

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS 5/24
GFS run going out with a bang.

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS 5/25
Big east coast soaker!

 

[BufordWX]

00z GFS 5/26
Another long range Florida storm.

 

[Ollie Williams]

00z GFS 5/26/2020
LR storm takes more of a westward track

 

[BufordWX]

12z GFS 5/26:
Large and wet storm in the gulf past day 10.

12z CMC 5/26:
Now showing a system in the southern GOM at day 10

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS 5/26:
This time Texas/Louisiana take the long range storm head on.

 

[BufordWX]

00z GFS 5/27:
Long range system stalls out and absolutely drenches the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of the GOM. It barely even makes it to the US by the end of the run.

 

[BufordWX]

12z GFS 5/27:
Another long range hit on the gulf coast.

 

[Rain Cold]

12z GFS 5/27:
Another long range hit on the gulf coast.View attachment 42176

Hard to imagine a worse track for southern and southeastern LA.

 

[Cadi40]

That is a huge storm, wherever it tracked the main threat would be devastating flooding by far.