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5/4-6 possible severe wx

This next series of storms has a better chance of at least riding 74... we'll see.
 
Looks like some activity is developing over south-west Virginia now for those in southern VA tonight.
 
Better than nothing special weather statements for several counties of western NC for storms across east TN. I like rain and thunder at night.
 
Yet, what another joke of a system. I would never wish baseball-sized hail or large tornadoes on anyone. But it would have been nice to see a little something, after all this hype. I really am done with modeling, SPC, and just trying to track systems, in general. Meteorology isn't an exact science and I understand that. But this is just crazy. Yes, modeling was maybe 50 miles south of what most models suggested, but good god, Some places aren't even getting a flash of lightning. If this is the future of modeling we, then we really have gone downhill. I will always love weather and storms, but besides the last 2 events, most modeling has been inconsistent and nowhere near reality. It sucks too, because people will eventually lose faith in future forecast, and lives will be lost.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yet, what another joke of a system. I would never wish baseball-sized hail or large tornadoes on anyone. But it would have been nice to see a little something, after all this hype. I really am done with modeling, SPC, and just trying to track systems, in general. Meteorology isn't an exact science and I understand that. But this is just crazy. Yes, modeling was maybe 50 miles south of what most models suggested, but good god, Some places aren't even getting a flash of lightning. If this is the future of modeling we, then we really have gone downhill. I will always love weather and storms, but besides 2 events, most modeling has been inconsistent and nowhere near reality. It sucks too, because people will eventually lose faith in future forecast, and lives will be lost.
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I was right on the Marginal/Slight line with a line barreling down at me. 10 minutes later, it fell apart and we got a 3 minute moderate shower. It's already mostly clear. I live in the worst place for severe weather.

Fun fact: Forsyth County has had only 7 tornadoes since 1950. Every surrounding county has had quite a few more, including one of deadliest tornadoes ever (Gainesville, 1936).
 
Updated warm front & wind map. A brief period exists for those north of Charlotte that was skipped earlier for some thunder storm activity as it crosses north-west NC first. But the tornado threat is much further s/e near Florence SC to Wilmington NC now. You can access maps like these for free on WunderGround. It will display the fronts and wind direction in blue.

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CamWX said:
I was right on the Marginal/Slight line with a line barreling down at me. 10 minutes later, it fell apart and we got a 3 minute moderate shower. It's already mostly clear. I live in the worst place for severe weather.

Fun fact: Forsyth County has had only 7 tornadoes since 1950. Every surrounding county has had quite a few more.
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Yep, almost every single severe weather event fails to produce anything here more than strong winds and small hail. Last time I saw hail larger than dime size was several years ago. Last time we had severe winds excluding Irma was several years back as well and before then it was sparse. I think over the last 10 years we've had maybe 5 or so legit severe events with actual impacts. And tornado wise, the strongest I believe was an F3 in the 70s.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep, almost every single severe weather event fails to produce anything here more than strong winds and small hail. Last time I saw hail larger than dime size was several years ago. Last time we had severe winds excluding Irma was several years back as well and before then it was sparse. I think over the last 10 years we've had maybe 5 or so legit severe events with actual impacts. And tornado wise, the strongest I believe was an F3 in the 70s.
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Is it the topography? The lake? You would think there's an obvious answer, but I don't see it.
 
Storm northwest of Greensboro May give Raleigh some rain tonight. NWS expanded thunderstorms tonight for i77 corridor based on radar.
 
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