Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

[LovingGulfLows]

Moisture kinda dies on the HRRR. Like many have said though, the HRRR isn’t worth stressing run to run.

HRRR focuses most of the precip north of Atlanta. It's interesting to say the least. Something to keep a lookout for.

 

[Storm5]

The returns over northern miss died a quick death


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I could see this being very close to reality.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Just praying the NAM keeps up with the goodies on this 0z run. If NAM trends poorly, all my hope is lost lol. A shame I don't live about 30 miles north.

 

[ontherocks]

30.7; DP 28.7--posting to see if the elevation I added to my profile shows up so I don't get yelled at.....

 

[BufordWX]

00z RAP hour 16 and storm accumulation.

 

[GaWx]

It isn't often that ATL gets snow of any amount on prevailing S or SW winds. As a matter of fact, I'd call it rare at best. This may be another reason to keep accum expectations low near the city, itself. If I get time, I'll see if I can find a single instance of accum SN at KATL with prevailing S or SW winds. The good news is that will provide ample moisture. But will it warm it too much too fast?? Opinions?

I did just find one with WSW winds so far: (25 or WSW near a sfc low): 0.6" 12/29/97

19 OVC 010 6.00 –SN BR 34 31 33 89 10 25 28.50 29.61

 

[EmersonGA]

I did just find one with WSW winds so far: (25 or WSW near a sfc low): 0.6" 12/29/97

19 OVC 010 6.00 –SN BR 34 31 33 89 10 25 28.50 29.61

That seems like a good one to compare to. Dropped about 1.5 and melted that afternoon.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The returns over northern miss died a quick death


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just glad they’re showing. Looks to be ahead of schedule.

 

[Clem282340]

I'm willing to bet that's snow up in GSP

Why is the hrrr showing rain over the upstate is it going to warm up that’s why it’s not showing snow

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This NAM run starting out pretty weak precip wise

 

[BufordWX]

NAM still got it.

 

[ForsythSnow]

NAM still got it.View attachment 33472

And nice amounts still too.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Current temperature: 28
Low: 29
Safe to say we're good on surface temps even if we warm a little.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NAM shafts ATL. I could see it very easily happening

 

[NoSnowATL]

And nice amounts still too. View attachment 33474

Nice shift East from previous run.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

RAP and HRRR in agreement. That’s two heavy warning shots for the upstate. For the record, I’m expecting to see a rain snow mix down here just south of I85. I think that’s a lock

 

[Jessy89]

RAP and HRRR in agreement. That’s two heavy warning shots for the upstate. For the record, I’m expecting to see a rain snow mix down here just south of I85. I think that’s a lock

You think nam is to aggressive?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[malak05]

NAM shafts ATL. I could see it very easily happening

Nam 12k has always been east and north 3k is the one that's been bringing goods

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Regular NAM trended better for me personally, though it screws areas to the west. Let's see what the 3km says.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You think nam is to aggressive?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s a tough call. Here’s the 12k just rolling in. Looks solid. Snow is going to fall. That I can just about promise you. How much rain will it mix with? I’m just not sure

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12k trying to stretch this thing eastward ?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

3km NAM looks very HRRR-esque.

 

[D-Ray]

12k nam is looking solid for here for snow to fall

 

[malak05]

I have a hard time seeing a rain event to start and not transition to snow where I live in paulding as I'm at 31 degrees right now and upper atmosphere is favorable as well it's going to be colder unless it just doesn't have measurable rain

 

[ForsythSnow]

Well the 3KM is Namming me hard with 4.5" on the 10:1 and 2.5" on kuchera. I'm not really buying the Kuchera or the 10:1 since FFC said they believe a 7.5 to 1 will be what we get.

 

[Ilovesnow28]

What will it take for more Alabama peeps to get in on the action... I want more than an appetizer of snow we got this morning for 15 minutes in total ugh

 

[LovingGulfLows]

3km definitely trended worse for the areas on the southern edge. Areas to the west/northwest of ATL just get shut out completely.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Welp back to being skeptical here on the NW side of town lol. The trends were all too good today. Back to reality lol

 

[Jessy89]

Nam maybe trended slightly better for upstate sc?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ColaSnow]

What will it take for more Alabama peeps to get in on the action...

Transportation.

 

[Clem282340]

Nam maybe trended slightly better for upstate sc?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks like the totals went up some

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Based on GAWX information and data tonight, I am not feeling very good for the city.

 

[EastAtlwx]

Well the 3KM is Namming me hard with 4.5" on the 10:1 and 2.5" on kuchera. I'm not really buying the Kuchera or the 10:1 since FFC said they believe a 7.5 to 1 will be what we get.

Yeah that would be a solid 3.1-3.2. I’m not sure if Kuchera includes compaction, does anyone know?

 

[Snownut]

I honestly believe the Upstate and NE GA is going to have a pretty big event out of this

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NAM just took us to pound town. Even kuchera was showing over an inch into Greenville county ?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah that would be a solid 3.1-3.2. I’m not sure if Kuchera includes compaction, does anyone know?

3" is great. If I can at least hit 2 I'll be satisfied.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Down to 34 here..and unlike these “north metro” clowns, I’ve got a legit Atlanta address. I ain’t giving up hope yet

 

[packfan98]

Yeah that would be a solid 3.1-3.2. I’m not sure if Kuchera includes compaction, does anyone know?

I don’t think so. It only includes the snowfall with the kuchera estimates on the ratios. There’s some snow depth maps that include compaction.