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Pattern Microwave March

Webberweather53 said:
The southward shifts continue on the GFS. Definitely headed in the right direction for the Carolinas... Need a lot more where this came from.
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Yep..... hopefully y'all can pull this one out

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metwannabe said:
0z EPS certainly has piqued my interest but we really need this thing to shift much further south to over compensate for the inevitable 11th hour NW shift....

Love Webbs post above about the W. Pac convection, Rossby wave train forcing the Canadian vortex SE, good stuff right there! Can March pull a rabbit out of the hat?????
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Magical March FTW? Looking at the GFS trend again, the cold is pushed southwest as well correct?
 
ForsythSnow said:
How do the overall members look for the rest of the eastern US? Just curious if they are showing snow for anywhere else as well.
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Just as a comparison, Atlanta has 2 with basically just flurries (2 of 51 not great odds unfortunately)
KCAE has 5 so there has been a slight southward shift in the eps
 
Webberweather53 said:
No doubt this pattern looks extremely similar to early-mid March 1960 when NC got hit twice by big time snowstorms...
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Was much easier to get snow back then. The boundary layer will torch at the drop of a hat nowadays.


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SD said:
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Go ahead and cue up the price is right, fail tuba, it's inevitable! :(
Rooting for you guys and hope the trend continues ! If MA missed snow to the South, in March, that would be awesome!!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Go ahead and cue up the price is right, fail tuba, it's inevitable! :(
Rooting for you guys and hope the trend continues ! If MA missed snow to the South, in March, that would be awesome!!
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No expectations from me but failure. Anything is a win at this point

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BHS1975 said:
Was much easier to get snow back then. The boundary layer will torch at the drop of a hat nowadays.


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While snow occurred more frequently several decades ago, the impacts and diagnosis of this low frequency modulation (essentially AGW) on individual winter weather events is highly uncertain. It can definitely still snow if we're getting a snowstorm straight off of a PV lobe originating out of the arctic and northern Canada where 850s are approaching -50-60C.
 
SD said:
No expectations from me but failure. Anything is a win at this point

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Here's winter trying to make a comeback in the south
 
Webberweather53 said:
While snow occurred more frequently several decades ago, the impacts and diagnosis of this low frequency modulation (essentially AGW) on individual winter weather events is highly uncertain. It can definitely still snow if we're getting a snowstorm straight off of a PV lobe originating out of the arctic and northern Canada where 850s are approaching -50-60C.
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Yeah something that extreme is exactly what's needed for snow with our current situation.


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Early maps of the 12Z GFS suggest to me that the colder GFS run to run trends will likely continue with this run.
 
GaWx said:
Early maps of the 12Z GFS suggest to me that the colder GFS run to run trends will likely continue with this run.
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Looks about the same if not a tad warmer near the eastern seaboard. The disturbance crashing into the Pac NW is still slowing down...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks about the same if not a tad warmer near the eastern seaboard. The disturbance crashing into the Pac NW is still slowing down...
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But it is colder in the MW with a stronger high and better looking H5 there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks about the same if not a tad warmer near the eastern seaboard. The disturbance crashing into the Pac NW is still slowing down...
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Yeah, surface temps are the same there, but are colder aloft and on all levels went of NC. Could be a good run given the cold push aloft is south quite a bit. I have to give this whole situation a laugh because we usually see trends the opposite direction with our storms becoming cutters.
 
SD said:
this run should shift south again, even the lead clipper was shunted southward
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Looks like the pac ridge might be a tad taller too which should help greatly.....

And the SE Canada vortex might be just a tad SE as well, hopefully a southward trend
 
Regardless of the final results for NC, this is clearly a better run in general.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think this is going to be a good run for someone. Let's hope it isn't the MA! Definitely colder push and storm is slower.
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Probably will be....heights in NC went from ~570 to 564 so the trend of the GFS to come south continues
 
Nice Miller B sig on the GFS! Late season Miller Bs are the best! :)
 
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