much weaker, no good, not as much CAA being pulled if its weaker 
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Never mind, stronger now than it was last run at hour 150, likely gonna be more amped with more wrap around type precip, more north tho
Looks like u may have spoken too soon... legitimate threat is becoming apparent
Plus it’s further north. Probably won’t go into Florida this run. It looks a bit like 12z.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's a huge catch to this though and diagnosing ENSO takes a lot more than looking at output values from an index. GLAAM has been negative largely due to the strong +IOD creating excess west Indian Ocean convection but +IOD occurs far more frequently during El Ninos and the global circulation is what you expect in a modern NINO just w/ more lean towards the Indian Ocean which is a function of multidecadal variability or perhaps longer term climate change.
El Ninos since 1997=98
La Ninas since 1997-98
There's nothing La Nina about the divergent upper level circulation globally, it's literally the opposite of what we've seen in La Ninas since the turn of the century. ENSO imo can be best described as "modoki-west" this year based on where the strongest part of the divergent, upper level circulation is located between the Maritime Continent & far East Pacific. Its location ~150E is very conducive to -NAOs.
Jessy89
Member
Back to 12z mostly central NC paste bomb.
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Phase occurs, and the low goes crazy off the coast, it’s close
This time around Raleigh looks like it might be in the bullseye. I love it! GSO-CLT-RDU
gotta like the consistency, if models continue to show something around this time frame, and other models support the GFS solution (which is lacking a bit) into early next week, than we may have something
Snow totals are not as bullish this run, but with a 980mb low, I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes
Any chance this thing closes off more would be great. Would be great to see all the Carolinas including central SC get something from this. What a trend we have here.
What is interesting is that a lot of gefs members from 18z had a similar type of snowfall pattern look ... it was either shifted north south east or west and or was bigger or smaller in size but overall most had some sort of shape and configuration as this ... all will come down to when and where phase occurs (and of course if but ... no one likes that question
)
What is interesting is that a lot of gefs members from 18z had a similar type of snowfall pattern look ... it was either shifted north south east or west and or was bigger or smaller in size but overall most had some sort of shape and configuration as this ... all will come down to when and where phase occurs (and of course if but ... no one likes that question
Yeah, GFS was close to something monstrous, phase was just a little late
Jessy89
Member
This run sucks for us upstate sc folks
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accu35
Member
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and many more to come
NC geography wise is just in a really good place to get hit with a lot of phases systems they love phasing off the coast and the configuration of the land makes it easy for somewhere in NC to score a lot of the time
I’m know how bad the GFS is at any range I’m still watch for ensemble support. This still looks like it could be a good system
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good god, one GEFS member went absolutely ape**** in Greensboro on the 12z run.
I’m sorry man, but it’s 180 hrs out. The gfs will change so much look at how it handle pass system one run shouldn’t hype no one up.
It’s been showing this for more than 1 time, 4th run in a row, this storm has a look that could produce and be strong due to blocking, and I doubt he’s hyping
accu35
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This is not one run, this has been consistent. Know your models
My bad. I try to add, “taking verbatim” in there, but sometimes with runs like these, it’s easy to forget.
If that blocking beneath the land of green keeps trending stronger, watch out..all assuming the GFS is correct with the general setup..either way, I haven’t seen heights like this in a while ? 
WxBlue
Meteorologist
We'll see if this is another phantom storm, but at least the NAO block could be there this time. I'd looooove to see ECMWF's support before getting excited about this.
Jessy89
Member
For upstate sc and NE ga people we need this to get it’s act together a little quicker.
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D
Deleted member 609
Guest
What say o canada?
The GFS actually has trended cooler with this system. Great to see.
To be honest Gfs has been completely consistent with this type of storm signal for a while now ... first had big snow then turned warmer and now it’s trending colder as we get closer .. something to watch
Plus the GEFS jumped on board the last run. When that happens I can’t help but be enthused. Although, the EPS doesn’t have a single member with anything. Red Flag? We’ll see tomorrow morning.
10.6 here at 189 hours and nothing on any other model.... what could go wrong!?
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mydoortotheworld
Member
Do we have any analogs to this system on the GFS verbatim? I’m fascinated with this track and wonder if ATL ever scored with a setup like this
I'm struggling to think of anything right off hand
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I would trust Benedict Arnold with my deepest secrets before I trusted the GFS is correctly modeling a piece of energy going over the Rockies, coalescing into a ULL and then bombing off the coast. Let's pump some brakes.
Also notice the ridge axis out west is ticking westIf that blocking beneath the land of green keeps trending stronger, watch out..all assuming the GFS is correct with the general setup..either way, I haven’t seen heights like this in a whileView attachment 28096
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Something about the Precip shield reminds me of the Carolina Crusher. Though probably a much different storm at H5?
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Agree with this but it's at least fun to look at
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Ridge ticking west as SD mentioned would help the cause. 50/50 low seems to be moving faster but it’s got that dragons tale elongated look.i’ll be honest I’m not sure exactly what we want there