RollTide18
Member
Meh, it'll be gone the next few runs. Every advertised torch hasn't come to fruition.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Meh, it'll be gone the next few runs. Every advertised torch hasn't come to fruition.
Good point, we've had some warm shots but the long range "torch" really has been muted as we get closer to verification. That's one trend that is different and hopefully will continue as we get closer and closer to climo favored time for winter weather.
There goes all our snowpack to the north and west. So much for that theory now huh?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Atleast Chicago blizzard is still a go, right?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
It’s not gonna matter if there was endless snowpack from Canada to TN, those weak ass 1030 highs ain’t gonna get it done
Actually it's going to be south of Chicago
While I know what type of post this is, fact is, if there was "endless" snow pack from Canada to Tn a 1030 HP would be more than sufficient. But I digress because every single person on this board recognizes your style of posting, which is better suited for the whamby thread. Since you rarely read PM's, I'm not even going to send one but consider this a public friendly reminder to keep appropriate post in appropriate thread. Thanks
tennessee storm
Member
eps going that direction also...
RollTide18
Member
Like I said it'll be gone the next few runs, Euro/EPS have had warm runs that didn't verify lately as well.
pcbjr
Member
Beats torch talk and a N Christmas Day would be far better than, say, July at Christmas ...
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Snow storm uncancelled on the 22nd
Gfs basically gives NC a close call/borderline blizzard, looks like the storm the northeast just got a few weeks ago, still lots of rain but it was a step in the right direction
cd2play
Member
OUCH!!!
Shortwave has been trending more south, which bodes well for us, and it’s intense as it’s feeling that -NAO, this is just one gfs run tho and with the performance of it lately you just can’t trust it nomore one bit 
You’d think we would be semi excited that a model is showing a snowstorm around 180 hours but with all the models recent skills ... can’t trust any of it ... maybe this one will have increased GEFS support
Well on the bright side the gfs shows this warmth around us, but manages to strengthen the storm to a point where it could give us extremely marginal temps for snow, very NINOIsh type storm we’re dealing with in December
Yup, blizzard conditions for central NC at hr 186. I've been wanting to see a storm like this for years on the models. The 12z GFS run is indeed an improved run once again.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
There already has been GEFS support for that storm. The GFS has been improving a bit over the past few of it's runs.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
The GFS definitely could be onto something. UK has deep cutoff in Tx with 50/50 low and ridging extending down from Hudson Bay.
Looks even better than the gfs, Gfs has slowly been getting that look tho, more confluence these past 2 runs, and ridging over that shortwave, get that ridging over it to block it along with that -NAO and it’ll go ?
ATLwxfan
Member
Hard to get excited about a marginal threat effecting the upper south but we can still use the rain down here I suppose and hope that low digs.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GEFS a little more excited but still a spread. A few members even have snow on Christmas.
Need to get the Tuesday system big rain out of the way first to see if the latter is legit. I would wager not East of the mtns given no major cold air mass prior, during or hell even after.
Is that a tropical storm approaching hurricane status in the Bahamas at 240 on the euro?
Need the Bahamas hurricane to turn into a nor-Easter and pull some cold air down on the west side.
exactly why I don’t like this setup-
Anybody have gefs to post?
ATLwxfan
Member
They always seem to make more cold air on the models than they do in reality.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Hmmm a little GEFS support. Haven't looked at temps, I'm sure marginal but interesting none the lesee
Hello....
Downeastnc
Member
Need that low 100 more miles offshore at least.....anything along or just inland of the coast is usually bad for everyone east of the Triad/foothills anyways....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Unfortunately most of that comes from 3 members. Member 1 has almost a foot of snow across N GA so that alone produces half an inch on the mean.
Yeah, some show rain with a beautiful track and even to far south, and the ones that do show snow are big dogs, which is only a few, bottom line, this storm is likely gonna be pretty strong and have big QPF with it
Dude.... stop it! Lol
Yeah, temps are a problem the mean is seriously skewed and those couple of big dogs would be a paste bomb dependent on dynamic cooling
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Whoa... that's weird.So why are the members different on another site? Do they really shuffle around?
The euro doesn't look horrible
ajr
Member
CIPS analogs for the 12/21 period from this range don’t look terrible...
Last edited: