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Pattern The Great December Dump

CMC being that much earlier is important even up here. Euro has no ice up here because there is no precip here before temps warm after mid day Friday. But getting stuff in here overnight Thursday could be bad. We dipped right to 32 this AM when the rain came in.
Isentropic upglide over the CAD dome is usually hard for the globals to capture (& typically underdone on the models), don’t be shocked to see greater coverage of freezing drizzle or light ZR and perhaps some IP vs what’s currently being shown near the onset of this event.
 
Watch out MAJOR December south east ridge Impacting the south east mid late month .. this will most likely put us significantly above average for December ...... yeah .... NOT ..
 

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Looks like there won't be anything for us deep south folks (along and south of I-20) to track winter storm wise for the foreseeable future on to January

Not that we should realistically expect otherwise but yes, nothing on the horizon. A decent amount of ridging too on GFS. Not a blowtorch but decidedly above normal.


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Not that we should realistically expect otherwise but yes, nothing on the horizon. A decent amount of ridging too on GFS. Not a blowtorch but decidedly above normal.


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Can’t help but feel a little deja vu from last year waiting for good patterns to develop after early seasonal excitement. I don’t see the usual folks talking about the broader elements Masiello et al were getting interested in a few weeks ago.
 
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The Weeklies came in pretty good. Nice jump on the Mean. I has 48 members with snow IMBY. We'll see how that goes.
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hmmm, shift that western ridge farther west, make it taller like the one we have now, shift that PV lobe East into central Canada and shift that confluence down a bit SW and you got something interesting 46D5D182-A7EB-40F7-8F6A-F7AF9DCFD69C.jpegD71A9465-57B0-46D3-ABF2-0E6ACEDC91E8.jpeg
 
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