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Pattern The Great December Dump

I really don't think this is going to be a significant winter event at all. Trends show the overrunning disappearing so that'll most likely end with rain. At best I think it'll be a light morning CAD event west of 85 NW of Gainesville Georgia onward.
 
I think the Euro might do it.
12z
1575957600-g6scFttJbYU.png

06z
1575957600-3SRvYzzBYEc.png
 
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Huge trend here on the 12z. But it has to go neutral. It could still end up being squashed downstream, we’ll see.


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ForsythSnow said:
I really don't think this is going to be a significant winter event at all. Trends show the overrunning disappearing so that'll most likely end with rain. At best I think it'll be a light morning CAD event west of 85 NW of Gainesville Georgia onward.
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Regardless of whether it turns to rain or not those CAD regions could easily pick up a quarter of an inch or more of ice when temps allow and usually end up staying colder longer so it could pick up quickly ... after ice happens there’s no reverse button whether it melts if not the damage will already have been done
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Regardless of whether it turns to rain or not those CAD regions could easily pick up a quarter of an inch or more of ice when temps allow and usually end up staying colder longer so it could pick up quickly ... after ice happens there’s no reverse button whether it melts if not the damage will already have been done
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Most of the Time, CAD ice events stay around 32 degrees and not everything sticks, this time, much more cold air to work with.
 
I have high confidence the euro does something wintry here ... u can see a low with plenty more moisture down in the gulf on the pivotal maps ... way more than the overnight run .. it looks like the moisture is beginning to move north while a big ole high is entering from the north ...
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I have high confidence the euro does something wintry here ... u can see a low with plenty more moisture down in the gulf on the pivotal maps ... way more than the overnight run .. it looks like the moisture is beginning to move north while a big ole high is entering from the north ...
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Agreed it enters the Gulf at the right time on this run
 
From American, the 925 temps, that’s classic CAD all day!
KyloG said:
Yeah, not quite but a shift towards GFS

View attachment 27387
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Verbatim, the high here looks to be moving in tandem, or building in slightly ahead of the wave, and models seem to be converging on 1040-1042 high! Good stuff
 
Jessy89 said:
Euro is at least trending in the right direction


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It’s a big trend for sure. What hurts here is the track of the s/w. It’s too far south. A mix between the GFS and Euro Op would be ideal here and that wouldn’t be expecting too much. I’m interested now!


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Judging off temp maps, how were temps on the Euro compared to the GFS say if the Euro had moisture in the same areas as the GFS? Would there be more Winter wx or less off what y’all can see?
 
The euro is much slower here. Low still in the gulf 12/13 18z....our high has slid out by then. It’s almost too far separated on the euro solution and we need a nice blend of the euro and gfs to get this thing in an ideal spot timing-wise.


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It's closer than the 0z was.

0z didn't have precip start becoming a factor until 12z-18z and even then it was only a factor in NC. The precip looks a hair faster, and now there's some wintry in far NE GA instead. Plenty of mid 30s as well so it's close but rain elsewhere.

Probably need for the timing to be more like at night on Friday instead of the morning.
 
Jon said:
The euro is much slower here. Low still in the gulf 12/13 18z....our high has slid out by then. It’s almost too far separated on the euro solution and we need a nice blend of the euro and gfs to get this thing in an ideal spot timing-wise.


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This is some different energy aswell sparking that moisture 00771852-C604-4DE3-9E95-57861A66E018.png
 
This 12z Euro run is indeed a much better run than the previous 0z run. This system is still over 100 hours away and I'm expecting better trends. Since the system is still over 100 hours out, the models have lower resolution in those time frames so the data can be inaccurate. But I can tell the models have slowly improved for the early stages of the system over the past several days.

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Jon said:
The euro is much slower here. Low still in the gulf 12/13 18z....our high has slid out by then. It’s almost too far separated on the euro solution and we need a nice blend of the euro and gfs to get this thing in an ideal spot timing-wise.


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It’s rare to see energy sit so long on the gulf like that. Almost feels like euro flipped toward gfs but tried to go back and shear it out after 84hrs and then we get this super awkward delayed event.

We have seen GFS flip before and get a super weird awkward run in between as it’s flipping sides.

EURO 100% took a nod toward the gfs in a big way before 84hrs. That’s what counts right now
 
Is it possible gfs leads the way this time. Gfs showed the system first a few days ago


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CADEffect said:
HP not strong enough...
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The storm is just too slow, I think it would be strong enough with the right timing. 1042MB is well strong enough to support CAD, I think the storm last December was around 1035mb

I think there was still some connection so the NS used up some energy. We would need a quicker separation like the GFS.
 
Friday night into Sat is rain on the GFS too. That’s another southern wave. Euro shreds the initial wave that could potentially bring ice. The GFS keeps it together.

8FF0D7DA-2888-495A-9984-8EF72AD8F0E2.png1BBF826D-F718-4C91-9909-6218BE8B2F45.png
 
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