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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Me too. Unfortunately that is beyond my capabilities to create! Lol hopefully someone here can assist? I know all time average at CLT is still 5.6 even though the last 30 years is only 3.7 inches. So I'm guessing that 5.6 used to be a lot higher before the 1980s came around and we started the decline.
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Simple linear regression onto Charlotte's snowfall record reveals the average snowfall is decreasing at a rate of roughly a dusting per decade, I've found similar trends in other areas like Fayetteville.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Simple linear regression onto Charlotte's snowfall record reveals the average snowfall is decreasing at a rate of roughly a dusting per decade, I've found similar trends in other areas like Fayetteville.
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Webb,
Can you post the graph; I mentioned a regression analysis a bit ago on that, but didn't have the data points to do it. Not a temendous fan of such things always, but it has its place if understood ...
Thanks!
Phil
 
Whamby ... I've decided that when I win a really, really, really big $2.00 scratch off, everybody from Roanoke Rapids to Dallas to Ocala to Savannah to the SC midlands is gonna have a really good blanket of snow (Wake - no promises) ... will let you all know when it's coming ... off to the Kangaroo now to get the ball rolling ... :eek:
 
Got to enjoy December models, the ups and downs but we know going in it was going to warm up so we can get popped, when I saw the red in the GOM last week I know she was going to warm up along with the warm MJO phases. So now we wait and wait like always. My thoughts haven’t changed for winter at all. We are still looking good guys.

* not a paid spokesperson for JB and JB blockbuster winter wonderland Inc.

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Brent said:
I'm just a little annoyed because people were hyping early December so much and now it's not even that cold I guess. It fits the pattern of last winter where all the hope was long range only to vanish.

I've never had hope for December though really because it's been a very long time since I've seen frozen precip during it
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I think recency bias is a large part of it. Typically, early December is several weeks prior to the most climatoligcally favored snowfall window for the SE US. What has happened the last two years is unusual and it likely won't happen again this year.
 
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.BB4105B0-8DD8-4FD5-B48D-9DFEB95122F2.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow.View attachment 26491
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Man some of the guys aren’t backing down, I wonder what they see.... cough cough. I don’t know about the below avg temp for my area but it’s going to be close.


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Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.View attachment 26491
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I would take 4 inches of anything frozen in a heartbeat down here in Columbia and you wouldn’t hear me complain the rest of Winter.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Man some of the guys aren’t backing down, I wonder what they see.... cough cough. I don’t know about the below avg temp for my area but it’s going to be close.


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One thing I’ve seen countless people do, Including Van and Brad P is find the average temp for Enso neutral years. The thing is that it has no effect, it’s like trying to find out how much snow the SE got with winter temps exactly average and seeing if there is a correlation to a large increase of decrease of snow. It’s probably going to do anything.
 
Ollie Williams said:
One thing I’ve seen countless people do, Including Van and Brad P is find the average temp for Enso neutral years. The thing is that it has no effect, it’s like trying to find out how much snow the SE got with winter temps exactly average and seeing if there is a correlation to a large increase of decrease of snow. It’s probably going to do anything.
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The SE is just a hard region to predict snow, every single thing has to line up just right and at the right time. I can see both sides anywhere from a winter like last year to something close to 2014 and it won’t take much to go either way. That’s why is so fun to watch.


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Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.View attachment 26491
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6-8...check please

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598c7ed36d5d9f05cbe8c00a93fcd366.jpg



This should make at least 2 people happy.


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NoSnowATL said:
598c7ed36d5d9f05cbe8c00a93fcd366.jpg



This should make at least 2 people happy.


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Why you leaving out Arkansas lol. I'm the furthest nw member i do believe. In all seriousness, i pray and hope we have a few winter storm opportunities this winter. Its fun to track and have people popping adderall, zanex, clottapen like m and m's.
 
I’m throwing in the towel. Prepare for heat chasing moisture for the next 4 months. I’ll take my backend inch in early January and go ahead and lay down my last two pallets of Zoysia by middle of the month. Those -NAO runs a couple days ago were fun while they lasted. At least Banner Elk is only 2.5 hours up the road. Could be worse
 
Golf7575 said:
Why you leaving out Arkansas lol. I'm the furthest nw member i do believe. In all seriousness, i pray and hope we have a few winter storm opportunities this winter. Its fun to track and have people popping adderall, zanex, clottapen like m and m's.
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Found it on the google. You guys in Arkansas are fine, 1-2ft tops.


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Golf7575 said:
Haha you crazy lol. I'm not in the mountains. 1-2 feet every winter i would strip naked on youtube for the president every year.
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does anywhere (in Ark), even in the Ozarks, avg 20 plus inches of annual snowfall? I'm guessing no.
 
SETNwx said:
does anywhere (in Ark), even in the Ozarks, avg 20 plus inches of annual snowfall? I'm guessing no.
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How’s TN snow. My assumption is that you all see small clippers a chunk of the time, but rarely get big storms.
 
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