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Severe March 1st Severe Weather Threat

Storm5

Storm5

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Looks linear at the moment
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starting to really get my attention... instability keeps creeping upwards... lapse rates are pretty high with this... nice warm sector... late Tuesday if we can keep the junk out and clouds gets breaks... think we can get some discrete activity going out ahead the line... especially back west
 
Lol so many PDS TOR soundings on the NAM in AR... Directional shear sucks for the most part, definitely still some lingering uncertainty on pre-frontal cloudiness over AR
 
The damaging wind threat continues to look like the biggest threat during the day Wednesday. I guess if any discrete cells can get going ahead of the main line we would need to watch for the possibility of a brief tornado but by afternoon the winds look fairly unidirectional as the line rolls through. Nothing like a good wind threat for your hump day


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For those with soundings (ive been away this weekend), how do they match up with these ingredient maps TOR wise for those areas?
 
Shawn said:
For those with soundings (ive been away this weekend), how do they match up with these ingredient maps TOR wise for those areas?
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4K nam holds a pretty strong cap over Ark has the best tornado threat into Missouri, Il. Interesting
 
I think that wind and hail will be the two big items to watch for. The tornado risk decreases through the day on Wednesday as the low pulls toward the Great Lakes and takes the energy with it, so I don't expect to see any big tornado outbreak this time.
 
Yeah, wind seems to be the biggest threat for most in GA, SC, NC.
 
The threat for severe weather tomorrow across the mid-Mississippi Valley will likely be primarily after dark, the capping inversion bolstered by descent induced by the right exit region of an adjacent upper level jet streak may stifle convection until late in the evening or overnight, hence people should remain alert for nocturnal tornadoes and severe weather and do not sleep on this event (no pun intended) even if we don't have any convection yet by very late tomorrow afternoon and evening...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The threat for severe weather tomorrow across the mid-Mississippi Valley will likely be primarily after dark, the capping inversion bolstered by descent induced by the right exit region of an adjacent upper level jet streak may stifle convection until late in the evening or overnight, hence people should remain alert for nocturnal tornadoes and severe weather and do not sleep on this event (no pun intended) even if we don't have any convection yet by very late tomorrow afternoon and evening...
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If only this jet streak bisecting the central US was further south over the Gulf coast, lol, we'd probably have a big tornado outbreak w/ a moderate or even a high risk of severe weather tomorrow and possibly even Wed. Oh well...
 
Lol, this is insane and I'm not sure how much I by this but wow.... SRH of 1200, 850mb winds of 85 KTS on the 4km NAM in the midst of a massive MCS that develops over northeastern and eastern IA.
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Lmao check out at that MCV over Davenport
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, this is insane and I'm not sure how much I by this but wow.... SRH of 1200, 850mb winds of 85 KTS on the 4km NAM in the midst of a massive MCS that develops over northeastern and eastern IA.
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Lmao check out at that MCV over Davenport
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The upper mid-west can be a bear in the spring .... maybe that's why Iowa has so few trees and mostly cornfields ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
If only this jet streak bisecting the central US was further south over the Gulf coast, lol, we'd probably have a big tornado outbreak w/ a moderate or even a high risk of severe weather tomorrow and possibly even Wed. Oh well...
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maybe latter in the spring we can get a very good setup... but im ready and watching for tomorrow night for my area midsouth general...
 
Webber, don't the CAPE values have to be at least 2000+ for severe thunderstorms? What about the jet? At least 120+ kts for tornadoes? I think the most concern for severe weather with this threat will be high winds, cloud to ground lightning and hail with some tornadoes within cells before the main line.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Webber, don't the CAPE values have to be at least 2000+ for severe thunderstorms? What about the jet? At least 120+ kts for tornadoes? I think the most concern for severe weather with this threat will be high winds, cloud to ground lightning and hail with some tornadoes within cells before the main line.
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You can get severe thunderstorms w/ almost no CAPE (as evidenced by Iowa earlier this year), and little-no shear (strong summertime thunderstorms), although both of these ingredients in copious quantities can synergistically add to the impact of the severe t'storms
 
I guess I am back on board the severe potential for this area again.....
Wind potential much? 60kt at 850 and the potential for evaporation below 850...
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