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Pattern Hotober

GeorgiaGirl said:
Honestly there's not much at all from current radar trends to even have me at 70% for rain. 50% maybe as there's still scattered showers north of the main shield, but not 70%. I thought that the radar would tell me to get out as soon as I could for exercise, but it's really not telling me that (I might still go anyway, I'm not sure).

Unless you see some real filling in north, the main areas that are really going to see rain are from Columbus to just south of Macon to about Statesboro.

GFS scored a bit of a win here in a not so great trend as all of us could've used the rain.
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I’m all in for Saturday night and Sunday. Euro has convention over me. That’s my win scenario! This event is just a nuisance.
 
Front stayed south but to some degree that was expected. I think we still see some light rain in the overnight hours tonight. More significant rainmaker next week. Not going to have it all folks.


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ATLwxfan said:
Front stayed south but to some degree that was expected. I think we still see some light rain in the overnight hours tonight. More significant rainmaker next week. Not going to have it all folks.


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Just want the models to be right for once! Guarantee the big cold shot after the one this week, will verify 10+ degrees warmer than currently modeled.
 
KyloG said:
GEFS really blocky pattern in the extended. Would be BN temps for sure.

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With a pattern like that, shoot I-40 north near the mountains would be in the game for at least a very small chance of something frozen, if it can happen in April it can happen in late October, ofc I’m not saying it’s going to happen but that’s a heck of a pattern on the GFS, but the new GFS has been wonky at H5 ever since it was released
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just want the models to be right for once! Guarantee the big cold shot after the one this week, will verify 10+ degrees warmer than currently modeled.
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Models said the bulk of the rain would be south of ATL metro for the past 4 or 5 days. On the other hand, Sundays rain over-performed for us.


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Shove that SER out of the way and that's a great look. Euro has a strong cold front coming in at the end of the run
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
 
At least the rain and clouds are close enough that it's currently locked at 70 anyway despite the only real rain being about 10 drops on occasion. #silverlining
 
ITP Atlanta looking to cash in on a few hours of light to moderate rain. Better than nothing.


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We are nudging, ever so slightly, towards something ... and Folks, a nudge at this time of year is the precise recipe ... don't spend the whole wad of cash on a "great" 3 days in late October or early November only to wish we had a paycheck in January ... store the nuts and crack them out when it counts ... in 8 weeks and moving forward or so ... for now, enjoy the nudge ...


2019101512_CON_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_264.gif2019101512_CON_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_360.gif814temp.new.gif
 
pcbjr said:
We are nudging, ever so slightly, towards something ... and Folks, a nudge at this time of year is the precise recipe ... don't spend the whole wad of cash on a "great" 3 days in late October or early November only to wish we had a paycheck in January ... store the nuts and crack them out when it counts ... in 8 weeks and moving forward or so ... for now, enjoy the nudge ...


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So refreshing to see BN forecasts in the south. I mean how long has it been?
 
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
 
Golf7575 said:
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
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that is pretty much spot on, with of course a couple exceptions, which is, of course, always the rule ... but who wants to bank on an exception given recent history?
 
Golf7575 said:
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
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Yeah everybody gets excited about super cold in October and be like “ if October is this cold, then winter’s going to be a blockbuster “ !
then it fails every.single.Time! We get to March and still looking for snow!
 
Future radar/rpm model looks lit tonight! Lots of heavier rain from about 5-8 AM! Wondering why Euro/Gfs have less than .20 for a lot of the upstate!?
 
Interesting seeing both GEFS and EPS model a fairly solid cold pattern to end October. Matches up with a-nino climo.

2758EE06-9471-428F-9819-2527EE7186B3.pngB8634122-8121-4508-9492-E6D7469B7410.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Future radar/rpm model looks lit tonight! Lots of heavier rain from about 5-8 AM! Wondering why Euro/Gfs have less than .20 for a lot of the upstate!?
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Well because the Euro and GFS are lousy at this time frame. This is a nowcast type event anyhow.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Because the Euro ain't what it used to be! Get used to hearing that a lot this winter when Dr No says No!!
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Yeah, a few days ago, Dr No had 3-5” of rain, through the heart of ATL and the N side also , this went into GSP area also! New that was a no!
 
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