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Pattern Microwave March

SD

SD

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I'd feel much better if the GEFS PNA forecast would switch from its current -1 14 day forecast. It is going to be quite difficult to avoid warmth with a solid -PNA (on a cold biased model no less) despite the recent +PNA/-AO/MJO phase 8 combo not having been cold in the SE. I really do think that the MJO may have been too strong and also there's been the the ongoing Indonesian convection supposedly causing what's been effectively a strong phase 4-6, thus dominating the big picture.

Also, it would be nice if the AO were to go back negative and stay there for awhile. The midmonth AO never got down to -2 despite GEFS forecasts of -3, which is typical of the GEFS -AO bias. Today's GEFS forecasts mildly hints at an AO drop in early March after a rise through the end of February. I'm taking the March -AO hint with a huge grain due to this -AO bias.

The one slightly bright spot is that the NAO has recently been verifying slightly negative vs GEFS.

Regardless of all of the above, I still have hopes for some March chill based on two of the three warmest ATL winters on record switching to a cold dominated early to mid March. It is pretty crucial to get the EPS on the side of cold rather than the current mild it is showing for the SE in the 11-15.
 
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TWC is generally pretty good in the neck of the woods on its LR forecasts; if this verifies, we're into May down here (87º, 88º ??), skipping largely right over March and April :confused:

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GaWx said:
I'd feel much better if the GEFS PNA forecast would switch from its current -1 14 day forecast. It is going to be quite difficult to avoid warmth with a solid -PNA (on a cold biased model no less) despite the recent +PNA/-AO/MJO phase 8 combo not having been cold in the SE. I really do think that the MJO may have been too strong and also there's been the the ongoing Indonesian convection supposedly causing what's been effectively a strong phase 4-6, thus dominating the big picture.

Also, it would be nice if the AO were to go back negative and stay there for awhile. The midmonth AO never got down to -2 despite GEFS forecasts of -3, which is typical of the GEFS -AO bias. Today's GEFS forecasts mildly hints at an AO drop in early March after a rise through the end of February. I'm taking the March -AO hint with a huge grain due to this -AO bias.

The one slightly bright spot is that the NAO has recently been verifying slightly negative vs GEFS.

Regardless of all of the above, I still have hopes for some March chill based on two of the three warmest ATL winters on record switching to a cold dominated early to mid March. It is pretty crucial to get the EPS on the side of cold rather than the current mild it is showing for the SE in the 11-15.
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Larry, we've been duped by the analogs again!!? I thought Feb was going to be rockin, after Dumpy December, and Jockitch January! Looks like we will end in Failed February ! :(
But JB going with the Modoki El Niño for next winter! 17/18 winter will be talked about for decades, hopefully not the reason 16/17 will be!
 
DadOfJax said:
80's in March is welcomed in my world....fishing and hunting paradise! Bring it!
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what are you hunting (spring gobbler?)? about the only other thing that comes to mind would be skeeters and ticks ... LOL
although i bet the bass bed early this year ;)
 
pcbjr said:
what are you hunting (spring gobbler?)? about the only other thing that comes to mind would be skeeters and ticks ... LOL
although i bet the bass bed early this year ;)
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Mosquitos already out up here! December to next December, never seen a 12 month summer, till now! :(
 
pcbjr said:
TWC is generally pretty good in the neck of the woods on its LR forecasts; if this verifies, we're into May down here (87º, 88º ??), skipping largely right over March and April :confused:

Screen_Shot_2017_02_19_at_11_36_12_AM.png
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Our friend the SE ridge is stout at the end of the month! Right on top of your backyard
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Jon said:
Our friend the SE ridge is stout at the end of the month! Right on top of your backyard
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:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:( - thanks my man! can you fill an Rx across state lines? o_O
 
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Jon said:
Our friend the SE ridge is stout at the end of the month! Right on top of your backyard
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6f7d8464cf7b423c47b29606d315d0c5.jpg



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Time to think about what type of popcorn I'm going to put in the microwave March.


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whatalife said:
Time to think about what type of popcorn I'm going to put in the microwave March.


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https://2.--.blogspot.com/-efLHrEi5-dE/WAj0BtOwrkI/AAAAAAACdjI/265fKu8n9YkE4VUBkO5vZDt94ddqZfPEwCLcB/s1600/Monster%2BPopcorn%2BBalls.jpg How about these little popcorn creatures
 
On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been! :) Can it??? :(
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather..... :D
 
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I work in 10 below at work in the freezer, so I'm good lol
 
BIG FROSTY said:
On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been! :) Can it??? :(
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather..... :D
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SMH! LOL!


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BIG FROSTY said:
On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been! :) Can it??? :(
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather..... :D
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BF, going in two weeks! They should be running good! The lake water should feel like a bathtub!
 
Northern Iowa with back to back to back massive snow storms on the 18z gfs. Lol. I have family members out there along with some in Minnesota. Looks like they will get more snow in two weeks then I'll see in five years. Lol
 
olhausen said:
Northern Iowa with back to back to back massive snow storms on the 18z gfs. Lol. I have family members out there along with some in Minnesota. Looks like they will get more snow in two weeks then I'll see in five years. Lol
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but they don't have grits and catfish an' okra ...
 
Models including 18Z GFS suite insist on strong -PNA. If you like cold, the NW US is the place to be. The amplification that is making it cold there is making it warm here. So, it isn't as if there isn't intense cold forecasted for a good portion of the US. It just isn't anywhere near us. For the SE US, it is hard to get a more sustained warm pattern.
 
olhausen said:
Northern Iowa with back to back to back massive snow storms on the 18z gfs. Lol. I have family members out there along with some in Minnesota. Looks like they will get more snow in two weeks then I'll see in five years. Lol
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Yeah, that makes me angry lol
 
pcbjr said:
someone just asked me what the hell are grits and okra o_O
told him he lives on the wrong planet ....
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good ol' grits in a bowl with butter, salt and pepper and maybe some cheese. Grits can also stand for, girls raised in the south LOL.
 
Well I honestly hoping to find a much better sign from the models but damn. I guess I didn't miss much huh?
 
Another possibility of why it's been warm this winter is because of solar activity. Field aligned currents and the Pederson currents feeding into the core of the Earth, the inner and outter mantels and the subduction zone and that's the effect we're seeing now. Scientists have recently found a lake of molten carbon situated under the western states about 350km (217 miles) beneath the Earth's surface. If the molten carbon is released, this could case a climate chaos. Now, I don't know if this information is authentic or not, I'll have to do more research. Never the less, this information is interesting cause the western states have been experiencing below normal temps. this winter, so some particles maybe already releasing from the the molten carbon. Read more about it here: http://www.sciencealert.com/massive-amounts-of-melting-carbon-have-been-found-under-the-western-us
 
SnowHusky said:
Another possibility of why it's been warm this winter is because of solar activity. Field aligned currents and the Pederson currents feeding into the core of the Earth, the inner and outter mantels and the subduction zone and that's the effect we're seeing now. Scientists have recently found a lake of molten carbon situated under the western states about 350km (217 miles) beneath the Earth's surface. If the molten carbon is released, this could case a climate chaos. Now, I don't know if this information is authentic or not, I'll have to do more research. Never the less, this information is interesting cause the western states have been experiencing below normal temps. this winter, so some particles maybe already releasing from the the molten carbon. Read more about it here: http://www.sciencealert.com/massive-amounts-of-melting-carbon-have-been-found-under-the-western-us
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I always wonder about solar flares and how this effects our climate. I believe some people think that because there are a lot of solar flares that this is why the earth has been so much warmer lately. I have seen these people say that when the solar activity or flares calm down then the earth will go back to a cooler cycle. Of course I have no clue if any of this is true so take it with a grain of salt.
 
OZ GFS coming in colder at least in the Midwest so far. Maybe more on this later.
 
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GaWx said:
OZ GFS coming in colder at least in the Midwest so far. Maybe more on this later.
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Yeah, last frame of GFS looked very interesting. If only we could see couple more frames more lol
 
If you were to tell me the SER would persist into the summer, I wouldn't bet against you.


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