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Pattern Hotober

The snow is getting closer ! Recently it snowed in the Rockies. Now they are talking about snow next week in MN. Only a matter of time before the south gets in on the action !
 
:Weenie::Weenie:
Run 10/5 18z
Forecast 2 am Saturday, October 19th
Tis the Season
The First Ensemble-member (#3) for snow over central NC from GSO to RDU. Here's an RDU Meteogram
gfs-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-1680800.pngGEFSMA_prec_ptypens_324.png

gfs-KRDU-indiv_snow-0298400.png
Edit: The next time this will happen is, 10/10 18z GEFS M5GEFSMA_prec_ptypens_372.png
 
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Good bye summer , you ----- !!!
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KyloG said:
Yeah, would still expect the SE to be AN, it’s what we do. But, it should feel much better outside and hopefully the AC will stop running all night.

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This slightly warmer than normal but way closer to normal and very pleasant vs what was just experienced is precisely what the EPS has been predicting as opposed to the many cold biased GEFS runs that were right at or below normal. Your best bet most of the time, especially based on recent years, is to go with the warmer EPS over the cooler GEFS, which has a bias to overdo E US troughing/western US ridging. Actually, at times even the warmer EPS in recent years has been too cool!

I’m so looking forward to the cooloff. In the transition, I got ~1.5” of rain today from several thunderstorms. This was the most rain by far I got since Dorian, which gave me no more than this.
 
In terms of anomalous SE US heatwaves, the one just experienced is arguably the greatest on record in terms of a combo of duration and anomalies for a good portion of the SE. I’ll focus on Macon, GA:

- Latest hottest of the year by 2 weeks (vs 1997’s 99 on 9/20) on 10/4, which had a 103 that tied with 9/17
- The 103 of 10/4 was a whopping 26 days later than the prior latest 103+ before 2019, which was 9/8 in 1925.
- 11 days in a row of hottest daily record highs without ties 9/24-10/4! The prior longest streak is only 4, last set in 1986!
- The largest margin on record vs 2nd hottest for the day was set twice at a whopping 8 degrees!
- @SoutheastRidge was right to call this the most unusual SE weather event of our lives.
 
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