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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GaWx said:
18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
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At this point the models seem to have this locked in and there is really a very low chance this somehow threatens the SE with a landfall north of Florida...it would take some serious correction around the 72 hr mark with the trough and how deep it is or the system needs to really slow down or really really speed up to change the current modeling.

accu35 said:
Icon done good with this one
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It did well with Dorian after it gave up on a Florida hit, after it went to the stall and north turn it never wavered and had the track right to within 50 miles for days and days.
 
The pbp is great (and thanks much!), but don't forget, folks, there is not even a "storm" ... if there were or if there is, analysis might change just a tad ...
 
pcbjr said:
The pbp is great (and thanks much!), but don't forget, folks, there is not even a "storm" ... if there were or if there is, analysis might change just a tad ...
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Its officially is classified as TD9 so I would argue there is a storm.....I think the models are doing a pretty good job initializing on the correct center etc on the last several runs...
 
Ask the Bahamas if this is a storm. Ask the search and rescue teams still digging out bodies if this is a storm. Just because it’s not going to Florida doesn’t mean this Tropical Depression isn’t a storm. Sheesh.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its officially is classified as TD9 so I would argue there is a storm.....I think the models are doing a pretty good job initializing on the correct center etc on the last several runs...
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I appreciate the disagreement of opinion, and the adult way it is expressed ... ;)
 
The conus has been fortunate to not have the same hurricane conus hit pattern as last year. We will see how the next few weeks evolve.

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pcbjr said:
I appreciate the disagreement of opinion, and the adult way it is expressed ... ;)
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It is a interesting point of contention the whole TD vs TS thing, do we consider a TD a "storm"....I personally am not a fan of the TD status, I would rather see the PTC go right to TS.....however your point about intensity would also play a role especially short term IRT Florida especially....if it does not get stronger fast enough it could end up over Florida....
 
Jesus, (pardon me) ... was just thanking someone for being nice ... unlike what one might find elsewhere ... didn't mean to cause a cyclone ...
 
18z EPS...the members that hang around look to jump towards the coast at day 6. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



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pcbjr said:
Jesus, (pardon me) ... was just thanking someone for being nice ... unlike what one might find elsewhere ... didn't mean to cause a cyclone ...
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I remember myself making some wild justification for a model too far in advance. You were very nice in listening to my argument....although I was wrong. :)
 
Humberto

Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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Henry2326 said:
I remember myself making some wild justification for a model too far in advance. You were very nice in listening to my argument....although I was wrong. :)
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We aren't "wrong" ... nor were you ... ;) ... we just all misread a silly map or a teleconnection or a thing or two once in a while ... hell, I lead the error pack ... it's just so nice we've built a group here that doesn't jump all over somebody for giving their best and making a wrong call on occasion ... now, back to Phil thinking he has a clue ... o_O
 
This ICON run is slower though not much change in track......still turns east and heads for Bermuda just going slower in getting there...
 
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
 
GaWx said:
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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Yeah if the system misses the trough in all likelihood it would be directed back. That's a tough scenario to really buy into though with the strong vorticity driving down the new England coast around 100 hours to the west of the system

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GaWx said:
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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This is kinda worrisome as it was just 2 ENS showing anything making it back to the US yesterday I believe....still is not likely but if it is the start of a trend to speed up the trough or slow down the storm etc......usually the ENS diverging in the 3-5 day range after being all together means trouble is brewing....
 
Downeastnc said:
This is kinda worrisome as it was just 2 ENS showing anything making it back to the US yesterday I believe....still is not likely but if it is the start of a trend to speed up the trough or slow down the storm etc......usually the ENS diverging in the 3-5 day range after being all together means trouble is brewing....
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Probably nothing but it is interesting that theres more spread than before as we approach that timeframe where thentrough captures it. Wonder if the models are getting more and better data ingested into them?
 
I guess this threat isn’t dead yet! All the media has written it off as a fish storm!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I guess this threat isn’t dead yet! All the media has written it off as a fish storm!
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Well I wouldn't get to interested until we see an OP run or two start showing the trough missing humberto. A handful of ens members is interesting but only gets concerning if we see more show that or op runs giving it more weight or credit as well. Until then it's just a wait and see what the consensus shows.
 
12K NAM has the storm moving SW and would miss Bermuda to the south by a decent bit if it doesnt turn NE soon after the last frame....all the others have the center going over or north of Bermuda....

The 3K NAM is also further NW with the storm by a decent amount at the end of the run

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ICON is pretty much unchanged.....its going to go north of Bermuda but not by much and the pressure is 940ish...
 
Strong signal for OTS. Dont see this looping back, could but most likely not
 
GFS might get really close to missing the trough.
Edit: GFS misses the trough. Very far north, not really a hurricane though. Maybe the beginning of a trend?
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Legacy does too but very far north as well.
 
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I guess 00z flipped the switch. Here comes the CMC with a NC/VA hit.
Edit: doesn’t make landfall but would be bad for the beaches after stalling there for days
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0Z Euro very close to 18Z at hour 72 meaning staying well away from US.
 
Yeah i think if it gets that far east by Bermuda the odds of getting back to the US are nil

I'm still leaning heavily OTS until I see some more solid evidence, it has to stay further west for one(like the CMC)
 
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He looks to haul butt to the east eventually. He is also looking very good right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him really crank up today.
 
The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. The latitude of Canaveral is about where he was at 8 AM per my eyeballs. The 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z...so good news. So, as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.
Up next: 6Z EPS, which I think will show fewer US hits.
 
GaWx said:
The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. The latitude of Canaveral is about where he was at 8 AM per my eyeballs. The 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z...so good news. So, as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.
Up next: 6Z EPS, which I think will show fewer US hits.
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At this point there seems very little chance this thing gets any closer to the US than it is right now....would be a big miss at this point in the modeling and I think there is no way the modeling is that wrong inthis range but then there was this....

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24 hrs later this was the cone....

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The 6Z Euro ensemble hath just spoken. It is far less threatening than any of the last 3 runs. It has only 1 member with a N.C. hit and only about 2 members with weak TCs hitting FL. There’s only one other member at the end of the run with a weak TC 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral moving WNW at the end. So, it has only about 4 of 51 (8%) members with a US hit or threat and only 1 strong TC.
Folks, the fat lady is stepping up to the mic. The trend is your friend. I’m at only a 5% chance of a US hit now though I’m still going to watch his movement closely the rest of today and tonight to make sure the SE coast is safe.
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z Euro ensemble hath just spoken. It is far less threatening than any of the last 3 runs. It has only 1 member with a N.C. and only about 2 members with weak TCs hitting FL. There’s only one other member at the end of the run with a weak TC 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral moving WNW at the end. So, it has only about 4 of 51 (8%) members with a US hit or threat and only 1 strong TC.
Folks, the fat lady is stepping up to the mic. The trend is your friend. I’m at only a 5% chance of a US hit now though I’m still going to watch his movement closely the rest of today and tonight to make sure the SE coast is safe.
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Yeah one would think is there is a big shift in modeling it will happen during the near stall turn to the east....one thing to look for is a early slowdown or east turn.....but yeah the fat lady is warming up.....I would have to not get very far past 75W IMO to stay a threat.....
 
- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.
 
GaWx said:
- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.
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Amazing, once was a gulf threat with some nice tropical rain to a safely OTS. Thanks Larry for staying on top of this lol.
 
Fortunate...2 hurricanes, or soon to be, that's tucked in to the SE coast that will miss land. Guess Dorian clipped the OBX, but to miss plowing into SE coast seems fortunate.

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