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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

Chief met CJ all over it!!324408CA-B1F3-435B-848D-A9BFF3DB2CFE.png
 
204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the
system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on
Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along
the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central
Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 
It'll be nice to get the HH data today. Looking at the visible loop it's hard to tell if there is any type of center getting going under the large mass of clouds. Making an assumption that the euro/eps is correct there has to be some concern that this may climb north then as the trough to its northeast moves out it stops then starts a slow west drift or loop as the next ridge build in to its west and north. Something similar to ophelia from 2005 would be a good example.

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I think NHC will be out to lunch on intensity forecast. Instead of a TD could be looking at a major.
 
SD said:
It'll be nice to get the HH data today. Looking at the visible loop it's hard to tell if there is any type of center getting going under the large mass of clouds. Making an assumption that the euro/eps is correct there has to be some concern that this may climb north then as the trough to its northeast moves out it stops then starts a slow west drift or loop as the next ridge build in to its west and north. Something similar to ophelia from 2005 would be a good example.

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Click to expand...
Wow....read Wikipedia about Ophelia. Sounds like current case so far.
 
So sick of bombing storm off the Atlantic coast. We need weaker ones that move into the gulf and stay fairly weak. In 48 hours, we went from a weak TS on the MS/LA coast to another damn Dorian. ???
 
I think WRAL is over hyping this for NC. It looks like the NHC track has it going out to sea after going through FL.

UPDATE: A possible track of the storm was released for the first time Thursday evening. The track shows the system developing into a possible tropical storm which could make landfall in Florida sometime Saturday afternoon and reach our state by Wednesday.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think WRAL is over hyping this for NC. It looks like the NHC track has it going out to sea after going through FL.

UPDATE: A possible track of the storm was released for the first time Thursday evening. The track shows the system developing into a possible tropical storm which could make landfall in Florida sometime Saturday afternoon and reach our state by Wednesday.
Click to expand...

Models are all over the place from the weak sheared out mess of the gfs camp to the stronger ukie and euro miss off the east coast threat. We wont know much more until A) we have a real center to track and B) G4 missions start sampling some areas around the storm and that gets ingested into the models.
 
Shaggy said:
Models are all over the place from the weak sheared out mess of the gfs camp to the stronger ukie and euro miss off the east coast threat. We wont know much more until A) we have a real center to track and B) G4 missions start sampling some areas around the storm and that gets ingested into the models.
Click to expand...
I was about to post this same thing. There are too many moving parts at the moment with the system and the near by environment then in the future across the US and north Atlantic to say the euro or gfs solutions are correct. The 12z cmc and nhc forecast really split the difference and at the moment are the way to go

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Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
Click to expand...
Yeah he pretty much also said that it's really a hard forecast beyond 4 or 5 days. His video definitely describes the situation well and I advise everyone have a look at it.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
Click to expand...

And right after I posted that, wouldn't you know that the 18Z GEFS finally has a member stronger than 1003 mb: at day 6 it has one near 1000 mb 150 miles SE of SC moving very slowly NNW toward the NC/SC line before weakening.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah he pretty much also said that it's really a hard forecast beyond 4 or 5 days. His video definitely describes the situation well and I advise everyone have a look at it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the 10 or so EPS members that stall either offshore or just onshore and then make a hard left due to the very strong ridge to the north makes it more difficult than usual for the day 4+ period. The good news is that that's only 20% or so of the members that do this. Also, based on my many years of following these kind of alternative options that show up for some storms due to blocking ridges, when there is strong model disagreement the hard left option usually doesn't end up happening and the storm instead gains more latitude albeit sometimes slowly. However, that's just the usual and every storm is different. Also, E US ridging has been exceeding expectations, if anything. So, if that were to verify, you'd need to give that 20% more weight.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is typically when the GFS/FV3 scores a win historically. If this was showing a strong TS/weak hurricane crossing FL into the gulf, I would discount it. However, with them showing a weak wave despite both models tendency to over strengthen hurricanes is a red flag. It will probably cave like it does most of the time, but don’t completely discount it.

This storm really will have a domino effect to the storm that proceeds it.
 
ac9981958ea14208c61dbd87d46dc7b1.jpg



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